저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아와 팔란티어를 매출성장률, 영업이익률, 영업현금흐름, ROIC, 포워드 PER, DCF로 비교. 엔비디아는 성장 둔화 우려에도 수익성·ROIC가 압도적이고 포워드 PER 20배, DCF 적정가 136달러 대비 현재가 114달러로 저평가로 봄. 팔란티어는 성장 재가속과 마진 개선이 있으나 PER 120배, DCF 적정가 47달러 대비 현재가 86달러로 고평가로 평가. 장기 투자로는 엔비디아 선호.
다듬은 글
Palantir stock and Nvidia stock are two of the most popular artificial intelligence stocks in the markets today. Not just artificial intelligence, but overall Palantir and Nvidia are getting attention from investors worldwide. That's why in this video I'm going to compare these two highly regarded investments and answer which one I think is the better long-term investment if you were to buy today, Nvidia or Palantir.
I'm going to compare them across several important financial metrics including revenue growth, . I'm also going to compare them on valuation, measuring them on a forward price to earnings basis, and sharing with you my discounted cash flow valuations for both Nvidia and Palantir to determine which one I think is the better buy.
So, tarting with revenue growth, and you can see over the previous 5 years that Nvidia took over the lead in revenue growth around 2023 when this increase in spending on AI from the large tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet really exploded and Nvidia's revenue growth surged to astronomical levels over 200% for three consecutive quarters, and it's still more than double the revenue growth rate of Palantir, which is surprising and impressive because Palantir sells software, Nvidia sells physical products.
It's easier to grow a software business than it is to grow a physical products business, but Nvidia has managed that despite those difficulties. Palantir has also re-accelerated growth. The revenue growth rate is increasing the second derivative, and that's truly getting Palantir investors excited while Nvidia's revenue growth is decelerating, which is concerning investors, especially as investors look ahead to 2026 and beyond.
That could be the moment when Palantir's revenue growth rate exceeds Nvidia's revenue growth rate because Nvidia's revenue will be so much higher than Palantir's on a total basis that Palantir will find it easier to grow at that point compared to Nvidia, which will find it more challenging to grow from that point onward.
The next metric I wanted to compare these two on is the operating profit margin, which again Nvidia beats Palantir considerably with its operating profit margin of an incredible 62% compared to Palantir at 11%. Regardless, both of these AI companies have done an excellent job increasing their operating margins.
Palantir has expanded its margins from -120% all the way up to 11%, an impressive feat to be sure, while Nvidia has increased its operating margins from around 20% up to 62%, which is one of the best operating margins of any company that I follow right now. Now, when we look at cash flow from operations to sales, this is where Palantir closes the gap to Nvidia, and the cash flow from operations to sales of 49% for Nvidia compared to 40% for Palantir shows a much closer relationship, although there is a asterisk here that should be noted for Palantir.
The cash flow from operations compared to the operating profit, the one notable difference is stock-based compensation, which Palantir uses a lot of. Stock-based compensation is using stock options and grants to pay employees instead of paying them in cash, and so that makes your cash flow from operations look better than your operating income.
But, what it also does is dilute shareholders because there's more shares outstanding, the earnings per share are pushed downward because you're splitting your profits with more shares outstanding, and so that decreases your earnings per share. Uh that's just something to note with Palantir in this specific comparison with Nvidia.
Still, to Palantir's credit, they've done an excellent job expanding this metric, and so has Nvidia. Uh Nvidia still beating out Palantir in this metric, although I wouldn't be surprised if over the next 2 years, if they continue at this pace, if Palantir exceeds Nvidia in this metric. The returns on invested capital is where Nvidia truly shines.
Its ROIC of 107% is remarkably good, and it goes to highlight the overall business model, not only the effectiveness of Nvidia and its visionary leader in planning and investing in products that generate strong demand, but also in the decision to outsource manufacturing and thereby reduce the intensity of capital required in the business, which allows the business to generate strong returns on invested capital.
107% is remarkable. That's compared to 10.88% for Palantir, which is okay, and uh it's growing, but it's nowhere near as effective as Nvidia. Another important thing to consider with ROIC is to compare it with the company's weighted average cost of capital. If a company is generating return on invested capital that's greater than the weighted average cost of capital, it's increasing shareholder wealth.
Now, some of the younger companies will not have that number be higher than the weighted average cost of capital, and that's okay so long as the ROIC is trending higher and the WACC is trending lower, which is what you see with Palantir. So, for Nvidia, the weighted average cost of capital is 13.27%, and the ROIC is 107%.
So, it's nearly 7-8x the ROIC to WACC ratio, which is an important indicator of success for a company and shareholder success. Meanwhile, Palantir at 11% ROIC compared to its 13.03% WACC is in a negative in this metric. It's weighted average cost of capital is greater than the return on invested capital, which is not great, but the good news is that Palantir is increasing its return on invested capital, and it has room to lower the weighted average cost of capital as it matures as a publicly traded company, as it improves the target capital structure to take on a little more debt because its cost of debt is so much lower than the cost of equity, that could bring down the weighted average cost of capital.
So, looking at valuation now, starting with the forward price to earnings ratio, Palantir stock is almost six times more expensive than Nvidia, trading at a forward PE of 120 compared to Nvidia, which is trading at a forward PE of 20. So, according to this metric, Nvidia way way less expensive than Palantir.
Looking at my discounted cash flow valuation model, I recently did this updated this model for Palantir on March 4th. If you want access to the full video going through this process step by step, you can view this video if you join my channel as a member. It's a members-only video available to channel members.
So, Palantir's intrinsic value per share at $47 compares unfavorably to the current market price of $86. Again, uh pointing to Palantir stock being overvalued. Nvidia, meanwhile, my intrinsic value per share calculation at $136 compares well to the current market price of $114, which demonstrates which is another point of evidence suggesting that Nvidia stock is undervalued.
So, if I had to pick between one of these two AI stocks to buy today for the long term, I would pick Nvidia over Palantir. .
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