저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 샤마스는 SEC의 가상자산 단속이 업계를 사실상 봉쇄해 거래소의 미국 철수와 규제 강화가 앞당겨질 것이라고 본다. 주요 주장: SEC가 바이낸스·코인베이스를 미등록 증권 제공으로 제소했고, 이는 업계 전반에 위축 효과를 줄 것이다. 단속 확산 전망: 거래소 다음으로 커스터디, 현물 ETF 승인 거부, 스테이킹 서비스, 벤처 투자사로 번질 가능성이 있다. 입법 전망: 가상자산 관련 법안이 통과될 것이라는 기대에 회의적이다. SEC가 섹터 전체를 사실상 막아버렸다고 평가한다. 기업 대응: 기업들은 기업가치를 지키기 위해 미국 밖으로 나가 관할권을 옮기고, 미국 이용자를 IP 차단할 수밖에 없을 것이라고 본다. 대형 벌금도 예상한다. 배경 논리: 기술은 본래 파괴적이며, 가상자산은 법정화폐와 정부 권력을 위협하므로 정부가 저지하려 한다는 입장이다. 다만 일부 혁신성은 인정하며, 범죄적 덤핑 세력과 혁신을 구분한다. SEC 역할 비판: SEC의 본래 임무는 투자자 보호인데, 이번 조치는 사후 처벌 성격이 강하다고 본다. 코인베이스 건은 법을 잘 지킨 기업을 대상으로 한 것이며, 가이어리 SEC 위원장이 권한을 넘어섰다는 비판이다. 의회가 결정할 문제를 SEC가 대신한다고 주장한다. 바이낸스·FTX 구분: FTX는 고객 자금을 횡령했고, 바이낸스는 고객 자금을 회사 자금과 섞었을 가능성이 있다. 이 부분은 보호가 필요하다고 본다. 정치적 주장: 게리 겐슬러와 엘리자베스 워런이 업계를 무너뜨리려는 동맹 관계라는 소문을 언급했다. 그러나 근거는 확인되지 않은 업계 추측이라고 스스로 인정했다. 진행자 발언: 영상 진행자는 2023년 가상자산 방향에 대한 의견을 시청자에게 묻는 것으로 마무리했다. 리스크: 소송 장기화, 거래소 이탈, 불확실성 확대로 업계 신뢰가 더 떨어질 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 샤마스는 가상자산 업계가 미국 내에서 크게 위축될 것으로 본다. 2023년 가상자산 방향에 대해서는 명확한 가격 예측을 하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
there's two ways to look at this one is the conspiracy theorist way which you see a lot of on Twitter which is this idea that crypto is making all of these inroads as a replacement mechanism for fiat currency and so governments are really now invested in trying to shut it down I think that's largely untrue and then there's the more simple basic reality which is that there was one part of the SEC that frankly didn't do the job that they were supposed to by either allowing a few of these crypto companies or crypto businesses to go public either as Standalone businesses or as part of other businesses so coinbase Robin Hood Etc and then there's this part of the enforcement action after this FTX Fiasco which is a lot of cya covering your ass by the SEC hey guys welcome back to Library of wealth today chamath gives us an update on the crypto market and what he believes is coming next with the SEC binance and coinbase the SEC lawsuits against the two largest crypto exchanges by market Volume last week will likely have a chilling effect on the tokens mentioned in the filings possibly forcing them to resettle their businesses to other parts of the world last week the SEC accused binance and coinbase of offering unregistered Securities to the general public the suits highlight ongoing questions about whether cryptos are a security commodity or something else entirely shamath says that if the SEC wins crypto exchanges will have to leave the U.S market which could force regulation much sooner than most expect let's get right into the latest interview with shamath as he gives his prediction for the crypto market and discusses what looms on the horizon in 2023 don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe if you enjoy the content we do here on this channel let's get right into the video and so they're coming down hard and they're going to go and systematically dismantle the largest actors and they're going to go through the value chain so I think the obvious place that they're looking now are the exchanges they'll look at the custodial Services they will not approve any ETFs and then eventually I do think it trickles into all of the staking services and eventually I think it'll touch the Venture community and all of those firms and funds that had a huge robust business in staking these crypto projects in order to get coins like founding coins and then being able to sell them unfortunately I'm pretty skeptical that you're gonna see any form of legislation pass I unfortunately think that the SEC has by and large put the entire sector into mate and so I think that what Jason said is largely right which is that it's going to force these companies to preserve Enterprise Value to to leave the United States and to jurisdictionally operate from a different place and to basically IP block and IP gate U.S residents from using their products and services I also think that they're going to have to pay large fines and so the only thing that'll be left is to adjudicate all of the staking stuff that that happened and whether that was right or wrong I mean I've been talking about this since the beginning because I I bought Bitcoin and wrote about Bitcoin when it was maybe 25 cents and then again when it was 100 so I've been following this for a long time and I think thinking from first principles just stepping back for a moment you know what we do in technology is fundamentally disruptive if it's at its best if it's truly going to be important in the world when you get crypto the crypto crowd literally said we are going to replace fiat currency fiat currency is the government and so my thesis from the beginning was if the government has a way to stop this they do not want to be disrupted what is a government at its core it's a military it's a bunch of rules laws and it's money that's the kind of pillars of any government's power we knew the government wasn't going to give this up and they left around and found out but the truth is the and this is where I have some sympathy for the crypto people not the people who are just committing crime with the whole way and just dumping these bags on retail Etc but we do want to have this Innovation here there are some Innovative aspects to it but Gary Ganser said listen you already have electronic money it's called money in the United States we already have these Services you don't need this consumers don't need it and you have to understand the sec's function in the world to understand why they're taking this action their function is to protect investors investors lost a bunch of money therefore they are going to Retro actively inflict pain and hold people accountable for their mandate which is to protect investors you could have easily resolved this the SEC and the companies could resolve this the companies could have followed these things as Securities and only allowed accredited investors top five percent of the country people who make over 200k a year they didn't do that they said anybody can buy these well that's just not how it works in America and it should change I think what's happening is more nefarious than that so the SEC is doing two different things they're alleging two different kinds of crimes one set has to do with protecting investors from having their funds stolen on these exchanges or at least commingled FTX did that right where they basically took customer deposits and stole them what binance is accused of is taking customer deposits maybe not stealing them but commingling them with company funds that should be looked at and I think crypto customers should be protected against that however the case against coinbase there are Legend completely different set of facts which is effectively what gunsler and the SEC are saying is that it is not legal to operate a crypto Exchange in the United States that is what the SEC is staying because coinbase has basically done everything right and I believe that Gensler is far exceeding his authority and stating something like that it is not up to the chairman of the SEC to say that Americans should not be holding crypto why as a free people should we not be able to buy crypto if we want to everyone should understand what the SEC is doing right now is basically usurping Congressional Authority it should be Congress that makes the law if Congress wants to ban crypto exchanges in the United States and prevent the citizens of the United States from owning crypto let Congress do it it should not be up to Gensler to do that and the question is why is genser going this far when previously he had relationships in the industry apparently he was a consultant to binance and even worse he was talking to FTX about giving them some special status and I I think the reason is that the scuttlebutt is that he has an alliance with Elizabeth Warren and the rumor is that you know she will make him treasury secretary if he basically destroys crypto in the U.S sorry where is the evidence for that that's just some one's rumor and speculation this is the scuttlebutt in the industry okay so it's it's someone this is in fact the back channel so just to be clear rumor and innuendo is what you're saying no look what I would say is clear is that Gensler and Elizabeth Warren have an alliance to destroy crypto in the U.S this was speculated about before with operation choke point but now it's clear they're trying to separate some choke point we've talked about on the show before it was a series of actions taken what you do when you're in a hotel at night no operation choke point was a series of actions by the US government to basically destroy all the on-ramps to crypto so you couldn't get money into the system now they're going further and they're basically saying it is illegal to operate a crypto Exchange in the United States the sec's legal battle against coinbase and binance will Define the future of cryptocurrencies billions of dollars worth of digital assets change hands on these platforms every day yet crypto since its Beginnings has existed in a regulatory gray area after all most of the current Finance rules were set before cryptocurrencies came into being a Turf War continues between the SEC and the cftc over which agency has the power to oversee these assets and the broader sector Gensler believes most cryptocurrencies are securities and as such current laws give his agency the power to regulate them both of these companies have resolved to fight the charges against them and they're preparing for the Long Haul however it's not just coinbase and binance the lawsuits are also threatening to create a lot of uncertainty and further erode confidence in the entire sector we'll be keeping an eye on this what do you think about the latest interview with shamath and the all-in podcast and what direction do you think crypto is headed in 2023 comment down below thanks so much for watching don't forget to like And subscribe this is a library of wealth we'll see you in 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