Fed will shift focus from inflation to labor market, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 시장 랠리는 당장 꺾이지 않을 가능성이 크며, 기술주 상승세도 단기적으로 유지될 것으로 본다. 밸류에이션: 엔비디아는 PER 약 123배, 나스닥은 약 30배 수준으로 비싸다. S&P500은 약 20배가 적정하다고 보며, 중소형주는 14~15배로 상대적으로 싸다. 장기 투자자는 이 밸류에이션을 고려해야 한다. 모멘텀: 현재 시장은 20년 전보다 모멘텀 플레이어가 많다. 고기술주에 모멘텀이 아직 남아 있고 중소형주도 움직이기 시작했다. 성장주와 가치주 간 괴리는 90년대 인터넷 버블기만큼 크지는 않다. 인플레이션: 근원 서비스 인플레이션은 주거비(shelter)를 빼면 2% 이하로 연준 목표에 부합한다. 주거비 데이터는 지연되고 결함이 있어 과대 반영되고 있으며, 인플레이션은 사실상 진정되었다. 연준: 연준은 이번 회의에서 pause(동결)하겠지만 매파적일 것이다. 점도표(Dot Plot)에서 다수 위원이 금리 전망을 올릴 가능성이 있어 시장에 충격을 줄 수 있다. 연준을 움직일 핵심 변수는 인플레이션보다 노동시장이다. 노동시장 리스크: 지난 목요일 발표된 실업수당 청구건수가 예상보다 나빠 충격을 줬다. 이는 경기 연착륙 약화의 첫 신호일 수 있으나 단기 변동성이 큰 지표다. 내일 실업수당 청구건수를 주목해야 한다. 단기 조정 가능성: 최근 6거래일 동안 연준 발표 직후 마지막 1시간에 2~300포인트씩 하락한 전례가 있어, 오늘도 유사한 조정이 나올 수 있다. 다만 악재 한 번으로는 기술주 상승 추세가 꺾이기 어렵고, 악재가 누적되어야 한다. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 기술주 상승과 시장 확산(spread widening)이 이어질 것으로 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. let's bring in our headliner Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School professor emeritus at the Wharton School senior Economist at Wisdom Tree of course Professor welcome back we're talking about who's a Believer and who's not a Believer are you a believer in this Rally or I see a headline that you said somewhere that the stock rally is going to end soon is that what you think Nvidia which is a great company it's just I think it's selling for 123 times earnings uh NASDAQ is selling for 30.

02. well it's like 50. lesson P okay little West s p 20. which is by the way where I think s p should be at 20. and the small and mid caps are at 14 and 15. um you know if you're a long-term investor uh you know you gotta take that into account if you're a short-term investor you got to take momentum into account and uh you know being one of the older people I think that you interview uh but I think most of the people on your panel we've lived through the 90s and the internet and it went much further in terms of dispersion of growth and value back then uh than it has now at this point so yeah the dispersion is high but can it cut higher absolutely is the momentum there yeah they're probably more momentum players now than there have been you know 20 years ago although there have always been momentum players so you know in terms of you know whether you're long-term investor and you know the small and mid cap they begin to stir a little bit uh momentum is still with those high tech and if there's any signs of recession um you know last week people asked me what was the most important thing I was looking at and I said you know I think the CPI and PPI are going to come in nice the FED is going to pause very hawkishly by the way they may actually be I think the Dot Plot is going to be startling to people because I think a number of them are going to raise um their rate projections um but actually I'm looking at tomorrow's a jobless claims because uh that was a little bit of a shocker last Thursday and that's the first indicator you might see of softness now again it's a volatile short run indicator but my feeling is what's going to be driving the FED for the remainder of the year is going to be the real side and the labor market more than the inflation inflation is going to calm down the inflation is basically over now I think I have a chart I think you guys have helped me prepare that um I don't know if you can show you yeah that the blue um so that is core service inflation over the last year the blue is shelter which is the biggest single component now that's because the FED uses extremely lagged and I have to say faulty data on housing we know home prices are down there was an article Wall Street Journal today about year-over-year housing rates are zero or negative but because of the leg way that blue line is dominating if you take the blue line out of that you get core service inflation at two percent or less which is exactly the fed's goal so I mean in essence they have have slew the inflation it is basically gone there's the residual there's the data problem uh they should stop completely I think they should have stopped before right um and I'm worried about whether they stopped soon enough but we will see on that issue I'm still confused though as to whether you think Professor that this rally is about to run out of gas or not it doesn't look like it's going to run out of gas even with the you know there may be a little sell-off today at two o'clock when we see the uh the jackpot people say oh my God the fit is going to get higher and and he's going to take a very hawkish he's going to say we're going to pause but um he's going to take a hawkish position and you know we know the last six sessions uh We've sold off two or three hundred points on the last hour of trading on the day that he's come he's come in so if you want to look very short run uh I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happening uh uh today is it enough to slightly derail the uh the tech move usually one strike is not enough it usually resurges again and continues on there needs to be more of them and we haven't had more of them yet so I can see that the tech moving ahead and the spread widening in the short run