저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 8월 기준 Kevin은 경기침체 속 소비·산업생산·실적이 견조해 인플레이션이 하락 추세라 주장한다. 주식은 2022년 6월 저점 이후 재차 하락 후 2023년 1~2분기 신고가 경신 가능성을 보며, 부동산은 2022년 3월 고점 이후 2023년 3~4분기 바닥을 예상한다. 주택착공 9.6% 감소 등 부동산 지표는 악화됐다고 본다. 자신은 주식과 부동산에 대부분 투자 중이라 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here in this video i want to go through something that could end up making you a lot of a money and no it's not trying to pitch or sell you something though yeah there are links down below where if you wanted to buy something you could this is to show you something in a not so granular way not so overwhelmingly detailed way i just want to talk to you as a human and talk to you about the big x that i see happening or the great crossing between real estate and stocks now while we've talked about this a little bit on the channel before maybe you're new here or you haven't seen the dates that i've put on this yet so i think this is a really critical video for you to watch because it could make you a lot of money let's pay attention to this i think it's going to give us a lot of information now just this morning which kind of relates to what we're going to talk about here we got numbers that would affect the stock market and we got numbers that affec to just use these two data points from this morning because it is not only fresh information but it also reiterates what i think is going to happen and the timing for what i think is going to happen so first of all we're coming off the end here of earnings q2 earnings season has been phenomenal i mean even apple that told us hey expect a big miss came in with a beat over that miss and we've seen that across the board for many many freaking companies which is awesome and really exciting if you're exposed to stocks i'm 98 percent invested in the stock market and real estate i've got like two percent of my portfolio in cash and so i'm excited about this i'm excited that it looks like the stock market may have bottomed in june though only about half of you believe that i ran a poll on twitter and about 55 percent of you think this is just a bear market rally 45 of you think no no we bottomed in june and this is it we're going back to the moon okay interesting so we've definitely got some you know arguments on both sides here but this video isn't to try to argue the bottom of the market it's to argue the intersection of stocks and real estate and let's talk about those two data points and then let me talk about that intersection so two data points which one is good and which one is bad so first remember we're in a technical recession right two quarters of negative gdp and what came out industrial production came in and beat expectations substantially last month so what is industrial production well industrial production could be machinery it could be building ships and components that go into things that we use like the apple iphone there are a lot of components within this that are produced by industries or manufacturers i should say within industries and then apple buys them and puts them together and sells us a good generally when we see industrial production rise it's a really good leading indicator think about it if we're in a technical recession it means things have kind of gone down they've gone negative here where you're right now we're seeing industrial production rise we're actually seeing earnings coming stronger than expected consumers are holding up they have more savings than they did in 2019 they're still spending more than they did in 2021 20 and 2019 and if anything even though spending slowed in march and april when we kind of hit like peak fear in in inflation worlds uh we've actually seen consumer spending tick back up again in every single income demographic so consumers are spending and in my opinion industrial production rising is a sign that companies like apple just for an example are picking up the phone and going hey uh yeah we're gonna have to order twice as many wafers as we thought we needed oh yeah hey glass screens yeah three times as many glass screens make sure you put the uh you know the crystals in it this time we need them for the advertising you know basically now they produce more and we see industrial production rise before more product comes to store shelves and consumers can buy more it's a leading indicator that's good it's actually a green flag so to speak for the market instead of a red flag right so we're seeing these more and more that is consumers still spending green flag for stocks uh earnings coming in way better than expecting q2 green flag for stock industrial production green flags uh green flight for stocks the in inflation re readings while still ridiculously high 8.5 is still ridiculously high right it's it's we're seeing kind of what could be a potential peak but even if we just stabilize for a little bit if our underlying companies and industrial production keep booming some folks are rightfully concerned that wait a minute kevin like if if we're seeing those green flags consumers still spending and industrial production still going isn't there then a risk that we actually continue to add more inflationary pressures and that's just going to make the fed have to come out and punish us more and the truth is yes that is absolutely possible fortunately though we have the benefit of commodities across the board plummeting nickel copper lithium wood wheat oil gas you name it like the big things that caused a lot of inflation are plummeting and something that folks really forget a lot when it comes to inflation and we're going to talk about the crossing is the following look when inflation goes up and i hear this argument over and over again it's like hey if you pay people more it's not like you can undo their wage increase to get inflation to go away you don't have to and i think this is what a lot of folks miss is you don't have to see look if you pay somebody a hundred dollars in 2021 and then in 2022 you pay them 110 dollars that right there represents a 10 increase if now in 2023 you pay them a hundred and ten dollars the same level inflation is actually zero percent right that's what's so important that's what's so incredible so critical is not the fact that wages and prices went up it's that they then stabilize even if they go up a buck or two you know less than three percent that would be okay now if we continue to see now all of a sudden this is 121 another 10 increase that's a problem right now we get into spiral world and then we get paul volcker basically the image of the most severe federal reserve chairman to come out and just spank markets and put us into a deep dirty recession to prove that inflation will be going down even if it means burning the economy to the ground well that's a bad day but we don't have to talk about that because that's not what we're seeing it's not what we're seeing commodities it's not what the bond market is yelling at us so where does that that leave us well that leaves us with a lot of indications that inflation should continue to trend down companies and industrial production and consumer spending actually holding up really well for a recession much better than expected so that's like good news on inflation good news on industrial production and consumers and companies right that's really really important for stocks but what about housing well housing we already know this i'm not going to rehash this because i've made so many videos but just to catch you up more price drops in every city across the country we're actually starting to see closing prices finally start ticking down when closing prices start ticking down you get more fear in markets more or i should say fewer homes are built and more deals are cancelled leading to more inventory on the market more discretionary sellers people who wouldn't have to sell but can sell deciding they're going to sell and move into another home that they have or with family or move to a cheaper area right all of these things can happen to lead to more inventory hitting the market of course we all know all real estate is local but what numbers came out this morning well this morning we had a really bad reading we had and okay so housing starts are basically when builders start building new homes this is different from building permits let me quickly explain that because this number is going to blow you away okay building permits are when architects go into the city and they say hey we've got all these beautiful plans that we've been working on for the last year here you go and then the city's like my goodness these are some beautiful plans but we don't like that one thing and they send it back to you for six months and then it goes back and forth and it takes like three years for you to get a permit building permits are kind of a weird number because they're not quick people look at building permit numbers which actually slightly beat this morning but folks look at building permit numbers and and i think that's somewhat of a leading indicator it's a terrible indicator for the housing market because building permits are a way of suggesting that hey finally through the pipeline the cities have caught up and issued permits on plans you could have submitted two years ago it tells us nothing about what actual home builders are doing but you know what does tell us something about what home builders are doing it's called building starts building starts is hey all right we're breaking ground and we're starting to pour the foundation that's actual construction start it and that matters because now people are putting money into that project and we were expecting a decline on this number we were expecting a decline of 2.5 percent but we actually got a decline reading of 9.6 nearly four times as bad of a decline in the housing market for building starts as what we were expecting reconcile this for a moment it's really difficult but then we're going to talk about the cross we're in a technical recession inflation is still crazy high 55 percent of you based on my twitter survey think that we're just in a stock market bear market rally and 45 percent of you say no the bottom is in we're going back to the moon but the point is there's a lot of confusion out there how can inflation still be so high but consumers still spending and industrial production's still going but science that inflation will come down being so good every all of this kind of relates to it's actually good news and on the housing side we get this terrible news but year over year home prices are still up how do we put the pieces of this puzzle together because this is by far one of the most confusing times that we are living in and you cannot be blamed for feeling confused in this environment you just absolutely can't be it's crazy and it's so hard for people to time the market if you could even remotely time the market successfully in this insanity that we're going through you basically deserve a course on stocks and psychology of money because oh my gosh it is crazy there is by the way a coupon code for that that expires on august 26th link down below along with a real estate investing course now let's talk about the cross this is the important part and we're going to put some dates on this we haven't done this before with uh with actual dates so here's my belief okay we're gonna go now from the data and explaining things that are happening to now my opinion okay this is me taking all of this data and trying to put it together in a simple not overwhelming manner so that we can kind of picture what the h e double hockey sticks is actually going on out there and the fact of the matter is it's not all doom and gloom it's not all fud it's just the reality of what's going on so the red is going to be the stock market here's what i believe that we had first let's go ahead and draw some dates here this over here is going to represent november of 2021.
this over here is going to represent june of uh come on hdmi cable partner with me 2022. and then we're going to draw a little curve here right this makes sense we've all basically experienced this insanity right this is roughly what we've seen so far in the stock market this to here represents about a 38 retracement doesn't actually mean that the nasdaq for example moved 38 percent uh it just it from like a technical analysis point of view it's an important number and an important level that we've crossed we've actually crossed that level it's about 318 on the ticker symbol qqq which is an etf that follows the nasdaq don't worry about that okay so we've gone from this crazy high in november of 2021 to this crazy low of june of 2022 and we've retraced now it's possible that we could have a double dip right we could see a double dip and then we should see some kind of continuation right uh i believe that this is this is quite likely that we'll face some kind of uh you know shorter term dip i don't know if that dip will be as low as what we saw in june of 2022 but we will almost always have some form of other dip like this i believe that i also believe and you could have a different opinion of this that this will probably be higher than june of 2022 just because earnings are coming in stronger and production is coming in stronger yes that creates a little bit more fear that whoa then the fed has to be more evil to us right not while inflation is trending down if cpi numbers in september inflation numbers in september come in bad yeah then maybe we hit a new low i agree with you so i i don't want to feel like i'm alienating any of you thinking i have a different opinion of you it's going to depend on cpi and i think we can all agree on that okay so this when do we break when do we basically moon again right uh in other words when do we break november of 2021 levels well personally i believe that is going to occur between q1 and q2 of 2023 which means i don't really care to be perfect about timing the stock market here or here or here or here or here or here i don't need to do that okay i've already played it and i'll tell you it's very very stressful i sold about here and i rebought about here okay right and and then also more here uh these are these are roughly the places i bought right around when we get to that support level uh which i guess we haven't really gotten to that dotted line yet so i should really put it like more like there there we go right so so i went from here to here and here okay i feel comfortable about that but that's just me personally that doesn't matter so much what matters instead is the forward-looking information and that's that i believe we have this real potential of hitting these levels again in q1 and q2 of 2023.
now why would i say that well i say that because i think we're going to in that quarter in those two quarters going to be comparing back to a whole of omicron 2022 and q2 oh crap we could be going in a recession the bottom of consumer spending so comparing year over year should be beautiful for 2023 coming looking back to 2022 and that's why i believe the stock market could hit all-time new highs in q1 q2 of 2023 now what does that have to do with the great cross right all right well this is where it gets fun let's talk very ok a little bit longer to peak the real estate market actually peaked tentatively and we don't know maybe it'll keep going up but so far it's not the real estate market actually peaked in about march of 2022 that's interesting so let's kind of draw that so we draw the real estate market here okay now we're right now uh in august of 2022 and so far we've seen real estate prices come down about 3.5 in closings though we already have indications that that is going to be even more severe probably going to be 10 to 25 off of peak and that might be disputed but that's my opinion so this brings us off peak to august of 2022.
now there are a few things that could happen here right 10-year treasuries could fall which they're not right now they're pretty much stabilizing around 2.8 which means mortgage rates should stay high and we could go right back up right but that's not actually what i believe i believe and i apologize for this phenomenal hdmi cable or it's the apple dongle in which case short apple but anyway here's what actually what i believe i believe that the real estate market is much more likely because it moves so slowly to take a lot longer to bottom i actually think the real estate market is more likely to bottom somewhere in when we get the after we get the year-over-year comps so remember q1 q2 we're going to be looking back into a hole for the stock market but we're going to be looking back at a peak for the real estate market that means in q1 q3 of 2023 we're actually going to see the biggest year-over-year decline in the real estate market but that could lead to some additional fear that there's more pain to be had and this means that we could actually see real estate prices realistically bottom and closer to q3 to q4 of 2023 and i think peak fear so this right here i feel like would be representative of roughly a bottom but then peak fear which generally precedes the bottom would be more like q2 maybe q1 of 2023 and so this means i believe the real estate market is likely to do this and then for us to see sort of that that dotted line up which if you now look at this chart you'll see this incredible crossing where the place you probably want to hang out for the next year no guarantees this isn't financial advice i'm not your financial advisor right i'm not even a financial advisor i'm a dude on youtube the place for you to hang out in my opinion is probably this slope right here which yellow is probably a bad color to use since that's the background but this is probably the place for you to hang out while that happens let that intersection occur let that crossing occur and then when stocks hit highs again or start beating highs of 2021 now start taking profits from here and dumping them into real estate that's my belief now i could be wrong but i'm one of the few folks i believe who is all in on both stocks and real estate and this is what i'm seeing and that's why yeah i have programs on building your wealth whether you want more of my perspective on stocks and my alerts when i buy or sell things or diversify more or less great for example when i opened my m1 finance pie a new pie for all course members that we created were up over 40 percent of the things since i first threw nearly 500 grand into it this is an opportunity but no guarantees we're also diversifying we'll be diversifying a lot from tesla once numbers get to certain thresholds and if you want those alerts to see exactly what i'm doing join the stocks insight group if you want to join the real estate group and learn how to become a wealthy investor in real estate in an easy way how to deal with tenants in an easy way you know people always say i hear tenants and toilets are hard to deal with we have ways to make it easy to deal with we barely had ever spent time on our tenants we made it very easy because we have the tricks to make sure it's easy we can teach you those anyway check those out the programs down below thank you so much for watching and we'll see the next one bye
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