저자: Josh · 외국인
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S&P500은 신고가 후 좁아지는 상승쐐기와 하락 다이버전스로 분배 국면 진입 우려, 향후 2개월간 변동성 확대 전망. 연준 금리인하 기대 속 다음 주 연준 발언이 시장 변수. 비트코인 77k 상승 가능성 언급 후 일부 익절. 팔란티어는 S&P500 편입(S&P500 curse 가능성) 전후 프리미엄 소진 우려, $29 저항 및 $22 지지 기준으로 대응. 단기 콜 소량 진입 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
Four 3 the classic question has always been when Lambo and the answer has got to be now because if you don't get your money straight you're going to be looking like a straight fool trying to get out of that car guys I it's a funny intro but I've got a serious video for you guys today I'm going to give you a fresh perspective Ive on the S&P 500 the overall markets and then I'm going to cover a very hot stock I think it's an important play for my portfolio going into 2025 and I want to make sure that I get it at the best price and I know when to take profits when to hedge I'm going to lay that out for you guys today this is the stocks with Josh show thank you for joining me hit that like say hi in the comments and I want you at the end of this video to check out a live I did with Tim on crypto the other day tons of insight ton of gems in there then tomorrow I'm going to have the Kiwi Trader AKA Christmas tree Trader back on the show to give us another hot crypto take guys let's start off with the S&P 500 just for perspective we made a new high we hit 5354 and if you want to know how high that has come since the lows of October 2022 when everybody was predicting the mother of all recessions well since then till now we're actually up 35% now we are in a narrowing ascending wedge and those are classically bearish because the closer we get to the tip of that wedge that's when they traditionally break down now we're not even at the top of that wedge because we've been sort of rolling over and I've been talking to you guys about that on this show for quite a while the last thing I want you guys to see and this is so important is I want you to compare the bearish Divergence that we had on the chart back in 2021 that's got nice and circled for you guys the area and the chart below we want to compare that with what we've got right now which is the exact same bearish Divergence and so I've been sounding the alarm that we have shifted from a markup phase to a distribution phase but at the exact same time what you need to know about distribution is that we will make new highs higher highs and we're going to make lower lows over the next two months so the markets are definitely going to be volatile so here's a couple other things I want you guys to be aware of on the global economic level and that's that the EU cut their rates now we're waiting for the FED to cut rates here in the United States but the EU had pressure with the higher rates causing a Slowdown in their economy they're not as strong of an economy as here in the United States and so they had to concede and cut rates now we also saw the same thing happening in Canada so now we've gotten two large economic groups pointing to the fact that our fed is going to be up against the exact same thing at some point now that speculation is that it's going to be September but next week we're going to hear from the fed and we're going to see what he says is absolutely going to move the markets now here's what the market wants to hear they want to hear that he is getting doish and not hawkish and I actually think he's going to come out doish and we're going to see these markets go on a tear higher but as I've been warning it's not a continuation of a bull run it's just volatility and I'm going to be selling positions into strength today in the stock Squad patreon the Discord a bunch of the notices I gave was taking profits in some positions that I had alerted last week one of them was coin not completely out of my coin position but I was selling into strength and as soon as I made that call in the Discord coins price lost about three bucks now I don't think the move up is over so I'm going to take those funds that I made and I'm going to roll them into earlier smaller scalp positions to play the remainder of this run guys I still believe that we're going to see Bitcoin push up to that 77k number I think it's going to take coin higher I want to take a quick station break to talk to you guys about the nordvpn router now I'm using the nordvpn for protection this hides your location hides your IP address and prevents fishing attacks as well as the fact that it opens the door to being able to use some crypto exchanges that otherwise you may be restricted from using if you launch the application it's going to to give you the option of signing up from anywhere in the world so if you are in New York you could choose to be pointing your location at Indiana so anybody that would be looking at where you're coming from might think okay they're from Indiana or you could just go outside the country the bottom line is that you control what people see about you and I also just need that layer of protection that layer of security for my portfolio my crypto portfolio that I'm accessing online on my computer I just want to protect it and put that additional layer I seen so many Tik toks and so many videos about people that have gotten themselves hacked they went to the wrong site the wrong location they did not realize that they brought those Predators back with them over to their crypto or their Stock Exchange it's just not worth it that's why I put that layer of protection using nordvpn now I'm going to leave a link in the top pin comment for you guys because they've got an offer on a two-year plan they're going to give you four months for free but it's also has a money back guarantee so if it doesn't do what you thought it would do or you just don't like it you can get all your money back in 30 days check it out for yourself see if it makes sense I personally need to have that layer of protection on my computer because of the amount of money that I'm trying to protect okay let's take a step back in time and talk about paler these guys ipoed back in September of 2020 when things were coming out of a v-shaped recovery they entered the market at the $10 price and they skyrocketed all the way up to $45 this has been hot play ton of retail money has been piling into this play and we've enjoyed an incredible runup over the last year it's been a hot stock again slowly climbing back up to $26 so it's come up a lot and one of the things that the Market's been speculating about is whether or not these guys are going to be included into the S&P 500 which I think they will be in this next quarter and in anticipation of that there's been a lot of bringing the stock price up from those recent lows now some people would tell you that paler is expensive and I believe that uh only in the near term is it potentially expensive the PE is a little bit pricey but when we look down the road at the potential of this particular company these guys are just beginning and they only need one or two quarters to fill in that forward PE for example they did in 2023 Revenue $2.2 billion and the Tam which represents total addressable Market by pal unteer is 119 billion and so there is a ton of money each and every year for these guys to be going after and they are a leader in the pack their proprietary software which is absolutely protected does something quite unique it basically finds data like the needle in the haystack its Aid driven algorithm searches Mass amounts of data to find critical information the type of information that corporations and governments want and so they're going to be getting the very big contracts ahead they're the right type of company in an AI ever increasing driven world and they're going to continue to grow and so this is a stock that I believe can absolutely get to $100 in the next couple years but the big question is how best to invest and how best to swing trade it now if you're an investor then the goal would largely be to just to get your hands on as much as you could whether it goes down when the market pulls back or whether it pops when the market climbs but here's an event that's absolutely going to impact this stock and I want to go through with you that's the inclusion in the S&P 500 now that sounds good but I'm going to take you into when Tesla was included in the S&P 500 and we're going to look at how the stock price played out over the course of the next year because there is something called the S&P 500 curse which means when a company enters into the& P 500 it goes into a period of time in which the stock price becomes dormant and part of the reason why that happens is because before it got included there was a buy the rumor sell the news And So It came it comes up a lot in price gets included and then it's volatile but then it spends a lot of time cooling off we're going to look at what that might look like in the paler chart but let me just share the dialogue of the curse with you guys so you can see it with your own eyes all right the mle fool did a nice article sort of breaking down the idea of when paler might get included in the S&P 500 pretty much pointing to uh before or after June 21st but here's the idea of the S&P 500 curse it's the tendency for a company's stock to underperform after being added to the S&P 500 which is the opposite of the S&P 500 inclusion effect the inclusion effect is when a company's stock price increases between the announcement of its addition to the index and the actual addition date this is often due to mutual funds and exchange traded funds buying the stock for their portfolios as well as retail buying for example Tesla's stock price increased by more than 50% between its November 2020 announcement and it's December 2020 Edition so let's just go do that let's go look at the Tesla chart I put it in here for you guys this uh orange dotted line is when Tesla got included and in the case of Tesla and it's obviously going to vary for every sing single company but in the case of Tesla it went up for the next two weeks each of these candles represents a week in the market so after it was included it saw a continued push higher but then after that it spent 148 days in Decline now that ultimately turned out to be a pretty good buying opportunity but you know what you wouldn't want to be buying it up here at 293 when you were going to have the opportunity of buying it for nearly half of that at 182 so let's sort of apply that idea right now to paler all right we're looking at the paler chart each of these candlesticks is two days in the market and in the past I've been pointing out that we're watching and waiting for it to come back and touch this ascending Channel we are in an overall ascending Channel ever since December of 2022 we have had these pullbacks between the channel but the current pullback is actually a descending Channel and so if we get above this descending Channel we are very likely to push to the top of this channel pushing the price up to above $29 now I want to point out that there's absolutely resistance at $29 structural resistance but we are still in that environment where the market is anticipating this inclusion in the S&P 500 and so I would actually give paler the benefit of the doubt that we're not going to face a breakdown in the price we came down skirted the bottom of this ascending Channel and we're building momentum I think it's very possible that we still come back and touch it but overall I think that from now until when it gets included there's plenty of room for this to go all the way up to $29 now I've draw these lines in the sand right now the Line in the Sand is $22 if we're beneath $22 you need to be realistic about the fact that paler could come back to structure at 14 if we're above $22 then I would say that the $29 Target is a minimum but here's something very important I want you guys to see do you see these red arrows this one is pointing up it's showing higher prices over time but down beneath on the RSI we've got decreasing momentum and so guys this is called bearish Divergence and it should never be ignored in the chart it means that up here at this price when we had moved from $6 there was a lot of interest and a lot of buyers pushing it all the way up to around $16 ever since then the momentum has been decreasing and so what you need to understand is that there's a lot of interest in paler at the right price smart money accumulated this from six to 16 and ever since then it's been moving up on Lower momentum and lower volume what that can help you do is to see the future what does the future look like well that momentum is telling you that there's going to come an end to the up price now I'm not saying that we're at that point today I think $22 the is the Line in the Sand but I do think that if we were to get up to $29 and plus and it was very close to that S&P 500 inclusion date then you need to be aware that we could actually enter into a six-month period of time in which this gets digested and priced in people are always looking to make fast money on Wall Street but it's actually the patient hands who hone in on a stock chart it understand the fundamentals do their research and create a trade plan using discipline that make the most money now I want to make a ton of money on paler I am drooling over paler and over these charts and I'm sharing with you guys my game plan I'm going to be a seller even though I believe that paler one day may be a $100 stock I understand the range right now the range is $30 on the highend it's $15 on the low end and largely we're right in the middle of that approximately and so we're moving towards a news event and that news event the S&P 500 curse is typically an opportunity to take profits and wait for it to come back I actually like this company a lot and I've been buying regularly around this 20 to $22 Mark and I would just simply buy more if it came down to that $15 Mark I wanted you guys to have a fresh perspective on this long-term investment and this short-term swing when I really like a stock I play it from both directions I accumulate some over here and I S swing it over here right now if we're above $22 I'm going to be in calls to the upside small position size and when it begins to run that's when I ramp and scale up and try to make some of the big bucks had a couple nice calls coin was up 50% today but up over 100% from where we've entered over the last couple weeks and of course micro strategies was a huge win I'm going to wrap it up today we got a lot going on this week another exciting video coming to you guys tomorrow uh make sure you hit that like And subscribe for me and thanks for joining me today peace and blessings take care
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