저자: Kevin · 외국인
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1970년대식 인플레이션 재현 우려를 설명하며 금값 급등을 공포 신호로 해석. 캘리포니아 패스트푸드 최저임금 20달러 인상이 임금-물가 악순환(wage price spiral)을 촉발할 수 있다고 주장하고 ECI·ADP 임금 지표를 근거로 제시. 기대인플레이션은 아직 안정적이나 상승 조짐이 있음. 연준의 금리인하가 올해 지연되거나 없을 수 있다고 보고, 금리민감주(내구재·자동차·에너지·태양광)의 바닥은 인하 기대가 꺾이며 공포가 확산될 때 형성될 것이라는 견해. 빅테크는 금리와 무관하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here in this video I'd like to address the growing concern around revisit to the 1970s this is something that I have thought has been very unlikely mostly because we've seen so much progress on inflation in 2023 especially going into the last part of 2023 that how could we possibly revisit the 1970s there was no way I thought this would be possible well now there are growing concerns that maybe the market is beginning to price in ex exactly what happened in the 1970s and there are some reasons why the market could end up being right first of all I want to show you the first sign of panic that the market is finding it necessary to price in a potential for the return to the 1970s no it is not the risk asset like Bitcoin it is actually your more old school inflation Hedge and that my friends is gold now I'm not here to Shi gold you know I don't do that but I want to be very clear look at this chart we've got gold that just broke through $2300 per ounce and this is generally considered a fear investment we're seeing this pull up substantially beginning really since the last data that we got for February here at the beginning of March and all throughout the mon of month of March we've seen this sort of fear index increase uh this does mean that market is concerned about something what it is is obviously speculative it could be uh the growing problems that we have with Israel striking in Damascus the Iranian Embassy so now you're pissing off the syrians and the Iranians it could be settlers in the West Bank expanding their grab of territory pissing off Palestinians more it could be the attack uh on uh Aid work in Gaza it could be Putin doing Putin things it could be Ukraine doing Ukraine things it could be China doing China things it for all we know could be earthquake in Taiwan although we really expect that had some limited uh impacts fortunately now terrible that one person died a blessing that hundreds of people didn't die so there are a lot of things always sort of going on in the world that could lead gold to fluctuate but one of the things that is happening with certainty right now has to do with wages and this is something that makes me nervous from the point of view of what the FED is actually going to do this year first let's understand at the beginning of the year we were pricing in six to seven rate cuts when I say we I mean the market okay this is not like a group of people com and makeing their opinion this is like the market fed Futures were pricing in six to seven rate cut it's crazy now we're sitting at maybe we've got about a 62 to 63% chance of getting our first cut in June if we're lucky but what did Jerome Powell tell us today well Jerome Powell today at a speech at Stanford which I covered live on the meet Kevin live Channel expressed his desire for more patience that we're having more participation uh we're seeing Supply chains heal we he sort of went through a historical explanation of why we had inflation but what he did Express clearly was patience and I think I may have found exactly why it has everything to do with the potential for a wage price spiral now I'm going to start by talking about something you probably haven't heard of before and that's the impact of California on wages across the entire country potentially you may have not heard this yet but California decided to increase wages for fast food workers to $20 per hour with the exception of of course if you're a bread fast food worker yeah let that sink in for a moment and then let's also consider Gavin nome's connections to Panera Bread and he's the governor of California so just going to throw that out into the universe make with that what you want but then again rigged in politics is not really a surprise that's as unsurprising as it's unsurprising for me to mention that the price is going to go up again on the courses on building your wealth my trade alerts the alerts for day trading the alerts for when I Reby Tesla we're going to be reing Tesla buckle up for that all of these in the stocks and pych group make sure to bundle those with courses like the gold course or the Zer to millionaire real estate course email us if you need a custom bundle at staff atme kevin.com so California just raised wages to $20 and you might think okay who cares California raised wages to $20 well Bloomberg intelligence actually thinks that because California's fast food workers represent 410 of a percent of the national work Force we could actually see ECI move up by .1% in Q2 that's the employment cost index and that gets annualized so you multiply it by four to see what the potential inflation impact is on wages the FED ideally wants that Target to be 3% the problem though is if you have a move up in fast food workers in California you literally start the spiral because guess who gets pissed off well people who have wages in the $20 range plumbers electricians and these are like starting plumbers and electricians right like Journeymen right like master plumbers and electricians they're making 50 60 70 bucks an hour they're running their own business they're making 100 bucks an hour 120 bucks an hour right of course but I'm I'm talking for like your you're you're starting workers so you've got a lot of folks in construction starting out 20 bucks uh and that's with no experience and you're putting in good work right uh starting Sal or wages I should say for teachers or police officers you're generally in the $20 range yet now all of a sudden some kid coming out of high school with no skills could show up at McDonald's and work for $20 an hour that's literally like two and a half times what I made when I went to school but you know I'm 32 so I don't want to that's 16 years ago now I don't I don't want to sound like that oh back in my day it's just kind of a lot and the problem is that move up is not only driving restaurants to raise their prices in California even in and- out just raise their prices but it's also driving all of these other workers to potentially say wait a minute I should get paid more and so what happens is everybody moves up and then Nationwide you get a pushup because people don't want to lose workers potentially to California you know if you're working uh as as a fast food worker in Ohio for six bucks an hour or maybe eight bucks an hour or whatever it is right now and you can move to California make 20 bucks I understand parts of California are more expensive but there are very affordable parts of California that's pretty damn good okay doesn't mean you have to be working in Newport Beach I mean you could be in Bakersfield you still benefit from that $20 an hour so that sort of drives up wages across the board now what do we have to consider here well Bloomberg thinks bottom line out of all of this the ECI for the second quarter employment cost index is going to move up by 1.1% uh just a little over that that means 4.5% annualized wage growth that is way higher than the FED is targeting to actually start cuts and the second quarter ECI report rep comes out on July 31st which is literally the morning of the FED meeting which makes it entirely possible that the FED says you know what let's wait to get our last wage data for the quarter in July before we cut in June so they don't cut in June so you delay to July they get the ECI in July it's propped up by the second quarter numbers because the wage increase just went in April 1st propped up by the second quarter numbers now all of a sudden you get a hot ECI how does the FED potentially cut why don't think it's actually likely that the FED does instead what instead you have is a fed that's going to look at reports like this Friday's unemployment report which is of course preceded by the ADP report we got this morning the ADP report showed wage gains for job Changers go from 7.2% to 7.6% uh in February so January to February and then from February to March we went to 10% as an increase we're we're going the wrong way now I want to be Crystal Clear it's good for people to make more money but what happens is the potential for setting off a wage price spiral which is what we had in the 1970s wage price spiral occurs when prices basically lead to increasing wages so prices go up wages go up that leads to people uh having more money to spend so prices go up again as prices go up again people demand higher pay because everything's more expensive rent and stuff everything's more expensive think union strikes or just changing jobs and so you have to pay more to retain talent you have to pay more to attract tal a talent this could potentially lead to that stair stepping of uncontrolled inflation which is a currency Destroyer we know that inflation destroys currency this is why you should always be investing in real assets anyway whether it's real estate uh hopefully you're checking out and learning about the house hack mini funds or you're learning about house hack you can learn all about that at the house hack uh YouTube channel of course you could also uh send me uh an email at ious hack.com and uh we'll get you taken care of so uh those are things to think of uh that is of course make sure you read the PPM realize there's a risk with every investment we got to have balance when we talk about this stuff uh but inflation expectations fortunately are relatively stable right now that's a good thing that is like our saving grace to the potential pain of a wage price spiral see as long as inflation expectations are anchored we might be able to forall a wage price spiral and right now we do see expectations somewhat stable except we've started an alarming Trend at the beginning of the year we've really started seeing inflation expectations start skyrocketing take a look on screen here this is posted over at eac.edu .8% over here on the left that we had before the pandemic and they're certainly lower than that crazy high that we had at 32% right before the FED started their liftoff the question now though is is this surge going to continue the only reason we previously had a surge here is because of a banking crisis and thoughts that the Fed was going to cut rapidly and that would lead to a substantial rise in a secondary wave of inflation now we seem to be rising because some of the latest inflation reports are coming in hot now maybe those will end up being transitory maybe they're a fluke you know what maybe the level of new immigration we're getting is going to keep wages down consider that one of the reasons potentially we have this mismatch between the uh employment household report and the payrolls report when we cover jobs reports which of course we have a new jobs report coming this Friday is potentially because we have a lot of illegal immigration and they don't always get picked up in the Census Bureau data or in the the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates their figures and so what you potentially have is a households report that looks like jobs are falling and deteriorating when they're really not so if the FED has to sort of adjust in that okay well employment's still kind of running really well here we have to ask ourselves are we really in a deteriorating environment where we have to cut probably not so in other words the FED is probably leaning towards unpriced these summer cuts at least with the data we're getting now now of course this Friday we'll have an unemployment report and we're going to look for those average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis from March to come in at.
3% that's great but that doesn't represent California's wage increases yet which hit April we won't get that data until May and it doesn't affect the secondary wave that comes from California's wage increases that's going to take some time so we definitely have some more wage increases in the pipeline which could make the Federal Reserve a bit more nervous to cut and this is of course coming at the same time as oil prices are now hitting 90 bucks a barrel which does affect our headline inflation read obviously not necess necessarily our core inflation rate although even multivariant core is showing some signs of slowing in its fall which is not great we really want to see multivariant core continue to Trend down you can see that over here at the New York fed and you could see if we go to decomps and we just uncheck everything except the multivar core you can see how we're stabilizing at this higher level on multivar core around 1% which is not as low as we'd like pre pandemic we were sitting closer to 0% right now we're sitting at about 1.07% that's just for core add to that headline and you have a Target that's over 2% so we have some work to do on inflation we have some work to do on wages now what does that mean what it probably means you have a few quarters left of delays in terms of when we're going to get interest rate uh reductions which would be hopefully good for interest rate sensitive stocks which companies don't care about interest rates well Amazon Apple Microsoft Nvidia AMD asml uh these these large massive companies meta these companies don't care what interest rates are if anything they've got so much cash they're benefiting off these interest rates the companies that do get hurt by this are obviously your interest rate sensitives the durables the appliances the Autos uh the uh energy Investments the solar right these are interest rate sensitive we already know that that's old news the question is where is the bottom in the interest rate sensitives well right now expectations are that we're going to get Cuts in June my opinion is that we probably end up finding a bottom when the market wakes up to the realization that wow we might not get any cuts at all and when the market wakes up to the realization that we might not get any cuts at all this year I think there's a chance the market will move somewhat bearish in fact we're starting to see a Slowdown in the greed and fear index now I find that really interesting when we start seeing a Slowdown in the greed and fear index where one month ago we're at extreme greed and we're slowly rotating down it's a sign that we might slowly be moving into a segment or time of fear a time of fear could come at the same time as the FED un prices those summer rate Cuts or potentially any rate cuts for this year I think that could be a glorious bottom opportunity to buy interest rate sensitives and that's the time to buy the dip is the time to buy the dip now when everybody's excited about inflation uh uh and and uh uh rate Cuts not in my opinion I could be wrong though I'm not your personal financial adviser you know this but look at this turnover over here we're seeing this slowdown uh in uh the level of of greed uh we were at extreme greed a month ago a week ago we went down to Greed and we've been down at greed for a while now and so we are starting to see the uh stock price strength sort of the new 52- we highs start rotating down we're still sitting at extreme Greed for how many stocks are moving up still sitting at Greed for the put call ratio and Market volatility is still sitting in neutral junk bond demand is the only thing that's moved to fear so far but it is possible that the next best buying opportunity might be when this here moves back into the fear or extreme fear category I'm not sure if that's going to come from q1 earnings which start coming out within the next few weeks we're probably two weeks away from earning season really starting or if it's when we get our jobs and inflation report remember we got our jobs report Friday and our next inflation report on April 10th so mark your calendar for these dates Friday the 5th jobs report that's also coupon expiration day mark your calendar for April 8th we're going going to get New York fed inflation expectations and an expiration of the house hack warrants very important if you have warrants you lose them if you don't fund them by April 8th I'm being very clear about that in almost every video now and at on a CPI basis we're looking at 04 on a month over month on April 10th uh which that's going to be driven up obviously by gas prices as well and a core at.
three we'll see what we get but that's April 10th so buckle up we got some big dat coming over the next week haring the video make sure to as usual like And subscribe and we'll see you in the next one goodbye and thanks so muc a e
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