저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 1분기 인도량 대형 미스로 주가 하락. 전 EV 업계 조정국면이며 공급보다 수요 둔화 문제. 정치적 발언이 보수층 이탈을 키울 수 있다고 지적. FSD 가격(11.2만 달러)은 중고차 비교 시 과대평가로 봄. 단기 가이던스 부재가 밸류에이션 압박을 키운다고 봄. 명확한 로드맵과 가이던스가 필요하다고 주장. 금리 인하는 6월 가능성이 낮고 9월 이후일 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
holy molies we have some problems at Tesla and today I'm going to explain what is next for Tesla stock let's analyze that but first this Friday we've extended the coupon code link down below for all my trade alerts so when you want to get a notification for when I sell Tesla or when I Reby Tesla make sure you'r get all my Buy sell alerts whether it's in my portfolio that I'm trading or just day trading or whatever it is any kind of move we make in the stock market you get alerts lifetime access to that along with our lifetime access to our course member live streams this morning we had over 800 Folks at that moment usually we have thousands of people who watch the live stream but we had over 800 folks uh live in our private course member live stream this morning uh asking questions reviewing fundamentals and uh investment thesis so if you want to be part of those make sure you join those and get lifetime access when you pay once okay folks let's talk Tesla what's next well first of all Tesla's actually only down 55% on a disastrous delivery Miss we are down 13.9% from wall Street's expectations Troy was off by 5.4% he's usually off by 3% and basically he wasn't negative enough we only delivered 89% of the cars we produced and Tesla's pointing the finger at the Red Sea and the Highland refresh though and the Giga Berlin shut down because of the terrorist attack uh well the envir enironmental terrorism is what it's called all of those items affect production but keep in mind production was actually positive year-over-year we're at 433,000 Vehicles so we produced enough we just didn't deliver enough now some people are going to point the finger at that and go ah well you know they're stuck in transit okay well we're also getting record high inventories on both the model y uh and the model 3 so we're not doing great in terms of Demand right now now could that be transitory well that's what we're going to analyze uh in this video but uh keep in mind the entire EV sector is facing some pain right now it's not just Tesla right it's Neo it's Lucid it's rivan although rivan did beat on low estimates this morning they did beat uh it's uh you know Xing it's BD byd is down 44% quarter over quarter so the entire EV sector is going through a phase of adjustment of pain during covid everybody wanted an electric vehicle now less so and we are starting in the market to have to come to the reality that maybe not everybody wants an electric vehicle Tesla's long-term goals of getting to 10 to 20 million Vehicles produced and sold are predicated on people wanting an electric vehicle well if people don't want an electric vehicle maybe they end up buying a you know a GM or Ford which I know most Tesla people are like e why e but people will you know GM and I I'm not a shill for Chevy Crews at all I think it's you know mostly kind of lame you know only works on highways and you got to keep your eyes on the road or whatever but it's interesting you are seeing them purposely try to stab Tesla how just saw an ad from them Chevy Cruz while Towing you can't Tow and use FSD on a Tesla so I again I'm not saying I'd prefer their system over FSD FSD is amazing compared to the trash of these other companies and I want to be very clear and biased on that okay I'm very biased towards Tesla FSD it's very good is it as perfect as people say on you know Twitter with their video clips or what no you know I maybe 100 miles in on 1233 and I'm I'm I'm still getting moments where I'm like really it shouldn't be doing this uh so it's not there yet okay we already know that we already know that I know a lot of people are like oh when's Wall Street in a price in FSD how about when it actually starts producing revenues oh well now they're giving free trials to everyone great so you're definitely not going to produce revenues for the next 60-ish days on FSD you're actually hurting revenues right now which who knows maybe that's the perfect by the dip opportunity but the point is Wall Street has to come to the reality that this is the email from Martin right here we have this posted over at ec.com I want you not to just look at the uh median and average delivery figures but I want you to look at the median and average delivery figures for 2028 by 2028 we're really only knocking on the door of about 4 million Vehicles that's low you know by 2028 we were thinking that we'd be closer to well markets a couple years ago we're thinking oh yeah we'll be at 6 mil 7 mil we're going to be at 10 mil by 2030 I don't know I don't know if that's true now why potentially could it be true as the market price is in the fear that the long-term trajectory of Tesla may not be as good as as people originally thought well one of the reasons could be uh politic Co now I want to I want everybody to pay attention to this this is this is very important when I show you this you're going to want to make sure you got your life insurance in as little as 5 minutes you go to metkevin.com lifee you sign up in as little as 5 minutes you get it it's easy you got it you tell your spouse you tell your father your son your family I finally got it term life it's great it's what Lauren and I use it's great metkevin.com lifee uh you'll see that link down below right next to the link for Weeble which is where I trade I do all my trading on here so kevin.com Weeble if you want up to $3,000 in free stocks both of these are paid promotions of course but take a look here this is what's very important this is a poll by Gallup now I actually really like Gallup I think they're uh generally from what my experience has been unbiased and I actually think their data is very good uh so I think this is a high quality Source this isn't like CNN or Fox you know where we know there's going to be the bias if I want to go to CNN what do you think's at the top of CNN right now CN CNN.com top of CNN right now oh right next to Israel unintentionally killed Aid workers is Tesla sales plunge H now why would that be why would CNN promote pain for Tesla H let's hold that in the back of our mind for just a moment what do we have here Americans perceptions of electric vehicles effect on climate change and look at this one Americans owner ship of electric vehicles by demographic group you ready for this Republican would not buy an electric vehicle 71% 71% of Republicans would not buy an electric vehicle whereas 54% of Democrats would consider 22% are seriously considering and 6% currently owned whereas just 1 % of Republicans currently own 1% are seriously considering an electric vehicle and 26% might consider twice as many Democrats might consider an electric vehicle as Democrat as Republicans and would not consider you've got about what is that about five times about five times as many Republicans would not consider an electric vehicle compared to a Democrat now this is a really big deal this is a very very big deal and and you'll also notice that the older demographics would not consider an electric vehicle somewhere around 53% versus 25% for the 18 to 34 range uh so you're very clearly seeing uh electric vehicle adoption is um younger and more liberal okay now why could that potentially be a problem why might it be a problem that electric vehicle adoption is more liberal well it would only be a problem if you potentially were uh a liberal who is uh Pro you know climate change and and preserving the environment and uh you want to see those priorities furthered along you want to see more liberal policies maybe those are important to your business to your family to your livelihood there's nothing wrong with being a liberal now I know 50% of the world's going to say yeah there is okay that's because you're on the right that's okay it's you you can make up your own mind but the point is let's let's think for a moment if if you were a Democrat and your business or your livelihood was convinced that being a Democrat is the right thing what would you think if the CEO of Tesla said I think we need a red wave or America is toast in other words I think unless we vote Republican America is going to crap America will die unless we vote Republican will there be at least one Democratic Tesla buyer who says I cannot support Elon Musk because of that of course we could almost say it is a mathematical certainty that on the margin someone will not buy a Tesla because of this kind of politization by Elon Musk now some people like to say but Kevin this is just Elon Musk going off on Twitter nobody reads all of Elon musk's tweets you're right and that's actually the problem see part of the problem is that people don't read all of elon's tweets instead they read the tweets that the mainstream media promotes ah well what does the mainstream media promote well the most viral like MSN Elon Musk breaks with Democrats Elon Musk thinks we need a red wave or America is toast Newsmax MSN MSN Breitbart Blaze media the hill whatever Yahoo it goes on it goes on it goes on elon's most one-sided tweets actually become more Amplified because of their presence in the mainstream media which then makes people ironically think that Elon is even more extreme than he actually is on Twitter like I don't actually think elon's that extreme on Twitter or X as we should call it but the point is if people can cherry pick out that I voted 100% demo until a few years ago now I think we need a red wer America's toast and that gets Amplified which then contributes to the front page of CNN saying Tesla sales plunge far more than expected and we combine this with the fact that Elon is essentially look we could be free speech absolutists here okay but we two things can be true we can promote Free Speech but we could also say that if Free Speech hurts Tesla it hurts Tesla's Share Price Right both of those things could be true you could be a free speech absolutist while saying a CEO that is partisan hurts Tesla sales both of those things can be true but the unfortunate reality is Elon is catering to 71% of Republicans who would never consider buying an electric vehicle anyway that is a sad reality if Elon purely cared about Tesla which we know he I'm not saying he has to okay he has the right to have his opinions and his free speech whatever but if he solely cared about Tesla he would be as they say a quote flaming liberal and uh pushing for every single Environmental Policy you can and you know what he'd probably be Joe Biden's puppet Joe Biden would be like please take more of my money because you are promoting the liberal agenda right I'm I'm not saying El should do that I'm just saying if that's solely what you cared about that's what you would do but now we have to engage in the reality that uh Elon doesn't solely care about Tesla we know that in fact if you scroll through his X feed the vast majority is actually not Tesla it's very rare that Elon actually engages with Tesla commentary and generally it's only on full self-driving because I personally believe that Elon is facing entrepreneurial depression entrepreneurial depression just like really many kinds of depression is when you feel like things are outside of your control and you get anxiety because you want something to be good but it's out of your control so you blame the Red Sea you blame the houthis you blame environmental terrorists you blame uh you know China and competition you blame interest rates you point the finger but every time you point the finger three fingers point back at you unfortunately it's depressing and so what do you do do you engage more in depressing depressing aspects no as an entrepreneur you focus on what's fun and exciting ah SpaceX oh promoting engagement on x.com let's make X better let's make SpaceX better let's make let's do all all of the other things let's talk about Disney's diversity uh uh you know programs let's talk about how nonprofits are rigged these are all things from the latest things we hear from Elon let's talk about the Border crisis everybody should have the same mindset On the Border crisis and the Iran the irony here is everybody agrees that the border is a disaster Democrats and Republicans agree the border is a disaster oh great we have consensus well no we don't because Democrats and Republicans have different opinions of how to solve it uh so we don't need to get political in this okay uh I understand people who watch me are Republican and people who watch me are Democrat that's my point I try to be in the middle but the reality is Elon is probably recoiling from Tesla and spending even less time at Tesla because he doesn't realize that he himself is part of the problem now don't get me wrong I'm not here to say that Elon isn't wonderful because he's uh given Tesla investors so much the Tesla the stock has performed so well he's done so great for the company you know he he made electric vehicles mainstream the problem is now we are at a Do or Die moment and the fear of the Do or Die gets priced in now one of the reasons Tesla stock is not actually down more today like 7 or 10% on earnings that really didn't tell us anything we've seen that before is because we already pre-priced in a lot of yeah there's probably going to be a bad delivery number here now they were way worse than we thought but we're only down 5.4% on that it's actually not that bad actually not that bad the problem now is what happens going forward well what happens going forward is the potential for fear the potential for a lack of guidance on April 23rd when we get our next earnings called and we get even less visibility or we get even more pain or we get even more finger pointing see now what I want you to think of is Tesla has been advertising for the entire quarter and Tesla deliveries still came in this bad so imagine if we didn't have advertising would the numbers have been 350,000 instead of a you know uh 8 to 11% year-over-year decline we're actually trending towards a 15% decline without advertising maybe advertising has actually been a catalyst or or I should say a ballast for making this not as bad it's still very bad now so the question then is is this the bottom well we won't actually know what's the bottom until we actually get back to growth maybe we'll get that guidance on April 23rd but given the lack of guidance in the last earnings call I can't make a bet that we're going to get that guidance and so what happens well Wall Street starts pricing in then maybe the EV fad is over now of course people are going to argue oh but Kevin eventually FSD you know will be what people want to drive and people won't want to drive a car without FSD this is true but we are not at that eventually yet we're still at slow off stop signs we're still at slow on right uh right turns we're still at weird behavior in bike Lanes that's a bad place to have weird Behavior okay we're still at clipping curbs with our tires we're still at doing stupid things so of course it's supervised FSD we know that but the point is are people going to pay $122,000 for that oh of course not mostly because even if people were willing to pay $12,000 are they really now going to pay $112,000 for a new car or are you going to go look at the used inventory see that's the other thing that you have to consider is if you were to buy a Tesla right now and you really wanted full self-driving my recommendation to you would actually be to buy a used car so I would go into shop available on tesla.com just you know do it live and I would look for a used vehicle that already has FSD included so I want find that so let's find we've got a here it is full self-driving capability okay so here's a model y 57,000 miles you know that's it's a little up there it's not horrible uh but it has full self-driving and so what you can see here is with 57,000 mil you're selling for $31,800 here's one with 46,000 Mi selling for 328 uh this one actually has better Wheels selling for $1,000 more doesn't have FSD better Wheels lower mileage th000 bucks more no FSD it just has autopilot okay wait a minute so this is the standard range this is the long range okay so that's a difference that would explain why this is a little bit more expensive right but the point is even if these were the model match we're not getting a lot of value here on FSD let's try to find another one I want to try to find a one that's similar to this let's just comp this out let's go standard range so we're going to go uh model year let's go with the 21 model year let's try to make these as similar as we can let's go with the five seed version and then we're going to do autopilot and the FSD version and then let's go with the 19in wheels and then we're going to go standard range and so we're going to go with that's probably our rear wheel drive and we're going to go white dang there's a lot of inventory okay well we I have five so what do we have we have full self driving that one has full self-driving all of the others are autopilot okay so all of these five listings are I believe within 200 miles of 93004 so I've got five listings within 200 miles of me uh to choose from I have all of them are rear wheel drive all of them are 2021 models all of them are white all of them have five- seat models all of them have the 19in wheels they're exactly the same vehicle the only thing that is different is this one right here has full self-driving capability now it does have 57,000 miles so that is another difference we're going to get it does have more mileage give it that the next closest one is 38,000 and it's actually selling for Less so we have to kind of do a little bit of an adjustment here right but the point is is there a $112,000 difference well let's say the difference between 20,000 extra miles is worth $3,000 you know what let's be generous let's say it's $5,000 so if we're going to adjust this down we go 318 318 minus $5,000 right it should be a $26,800 car $26,800 car well now we're mileage adjusted for 20,000 M miles I gave a $5,000 discount all right so now we're at 30,500 uh minus the what do we say that was the 268 so 268 3500 minus 268 $3,700 so that means without that means FSD is selling for about a $3,700 premium mileage adjusted on exactly the same vehicle so the market is pricing in the value of FSD at $3,700 Elon Musk is selling FSD for $112,000 that puts us at a difference of $8,300 You Are overpaying by full self-driving by $8,300 $8,300 right now is an overpayment of 69% overpriced is what FSD is right now that sucks right and again 71% Republicans will not consider consider an electric vehicle so we have to put this data together and go well if FSD realistically needs to be priced at $4,000 which I've argued for for a very long time that's about what the market goinging rate is then people don't lose money by buying FFC right now if you buy FSD you are losing money you're literally taking 12 and turning it into four that sucks 69% reduction um it's very difficult for Wall Street to say yes yes we need to price in FSD now don't get me wrong will Tesla be a competitor in robotics sure but what are we selling any now no are we selling Tesla semitruck barely how many cyber trucks we selling we don't know the lack of clarity creates fear the fear will put Tesla on the front page of the mainstream news and unfortunately you were going to get write Downs After write Downs After write Downs go to the front page of the Wall Street Journal what do you got Tesla delivery fall for the first time since the co lockdowns so what do we do going forward when is it time to buy the dip well what we need to do going forward is in my opinion I want to be very clear about this we need clear guidance from Tesla we need a very clear outline that says look here's our long-term forecast yes we think we're going to go through a bump in q1 and Q2 but then as interest rates start trending down we think we're going to see sales go do we think based on our sales conversions for the cybertruck we're going to see sales do this we're no longer at a 50% growth rate for the next 5 years but you know what we're at 25% just give us a number that might put us at a 2.4 Peg or whatever right now for Tesla talk which would be a lot better to have that Clarity than the lack of clarity we have right now which is oh my gosh if Tesla's shrinking year over year and we're going through an earnings recession are we potentially actually in a situation where oh no Tesla's Peg is way higher than we really think it is so this hurts from a valuation point of view the fear of the unknown unfortunately hurts Tesla's valuation more than if Tesla would just come out with a very clear road map here's what we think here are our projections here are our Targets this is what we're going towards a guidance B full self-driving price decline C either Elon stop tweeting political nonsense although it's too late the cat's out of the bag or make this very simple Elon can still be an innovator he can still be part of Tesla he get all his stock on plan everything put a put a CEO in charge who leads the company that is not political I'm not here saying oh Elon shouldn't be involved or whatever you could absolutely still be involved shouldn't be the face of Tesla you've got to separate that and I don't know that you could really ever accomplish that I don't know that you could separate Elon from the face of Tesla that's very difficult I think the easiest way to do it quite frankly is with a spokesperson like Ryan Reynolds just like the ad that we made I think you need uh you know the joke ad that we made which which is removed now but what you need is a a a a high quality ideally neutral person that everybody recognizes who is a spokesperson for Tesla and Raves about how great the Tesla is in advertising Tesla's ads right now aren't doing that Tesla ads right now are promoting price they're not promoting the emotion of a of of a spokesperson I think that's what they're missing I think they're cheaping out by not picking somebody like this it could be anyone heck have Taylor Swift promote the freaking car everybody loves Taylor Swift imagine that Taylor Swift here's why I love my Tesla and it's Taylor Swift talking about how safe it is how when she has kids at some day in the F at some point in the future or she wants to protect her cats or what whatever I know I want the safest vehicle on the road to protect my kittens right and Taylor Swift looks over at at you know the beautiful big eyed cats or whatever that sells where's the marketing so the style of ads and marketing leaves something to be desired it's unfortunate and I feel depressed but the reality is uh we saw this coming so now the question is where's the bottom well that depends sure people are going to see this is a buy the dip opportunity the reality is we just got a valuation squeeze and unfortunately that squeeze is going to keep getting squo until things turn around and I don't know that we can really bet on interest rate Cuts helping Tesla even if we get one or two or even three rate Cuts this year is it make a big difference no now the trajectory might make a difference right which is good but I'm actually concerned that we're way overpricing the odds of getting a rate cut in June you know markets are at like 50 88.2% right now odds for June cut I don't think we're getting one until September or maybe even later maybe even after the election it's just my opinion so I don't know it's challenging I do think in the long term Optimus Tesla EVS it's the future but we have a lot of problems to get through between now and then and there's a good chance there will be even better opportunities but so with that said if you want my Buy sell alerts for when I buy back into Tesla make sure to b how see
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