저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 '돈이 구석에 쌓여 있을 때만 줍는다'는 투자 철학을 강조한다. 사람들은 쉽게 부자가 되려 하지만 실제로는 기다림과 규율이 필요하며, 싸고 사랑받지 못하는 자산을 사서 비대칭적 수익 구조를 만드는 것이 핵심이라고 말한다. 그는 러시아 자산에 대해 과거 비관하다가 변화(체제 변화 기대)를 보고 저평가 상태에서 투자했으며, 루블 표시 국채(금리 약 17~18%)를 매입했던 사례를 언급한다. 다만 '추천'은 아니라고 선을 긋는다. 유가에 대해서는 2020년 4월 WTI 선물 마이너스 가격은 시카고 특정 선물 계약의 현상이지 실제 배럴 거래 가격이 아니라고 지적한다. 그는 현재 원자재가 자산군 중 가장 싸다고 보며, 채권은 전 세계적으로 버블이고 특히 미국·일본 등은 비싸다고 평가한다. 이에 따라 채권 공매도·원자재 매수 같은 방향을 가정적으로 제시하고, 유가가 복잡한 바닥을 다지는 중일 가능성을 언급한다. 주기에 대해서는 전통적으로 약 10~15년 주기가 흔하다고 말하며, 대공황기 유가가 극단적으로 낮았던 사례를 들어 사이클의 존재를 강조한다. 매도 기준은 자산이 바닥에서 비싼 버블 단계로 올라가 모두가 열광하고 '이번엔 다르다'는 말이 나올 때라고 설명한다. 촉매(catalyst) 예시로 경영진 교체 등 긍정적 변화를 든다. 본인은 타이밍에 능하지 않다고 겸손하게 밝힌다. 발언의 대부분은 과거 설명 또는 장기 관점이며, 구체적 1~3개월 가격 예측은 제시하지 않았다. 유가 단기 전망은 '복잡한 바닥' 가능성 정도로 불분명하게 언급했다.
다듬은 글
the rebel capitalists show the first question I have goes back to the book you did with Jack Swagger market Wizards I think that was late 80s if I'm not mistaken in that interview you told Jack that the main focus of your investment strategy was just to wait until there's a big pile of money sitting in the corner and when you see it all you do just go pick it up and it sounds so basic and common sensical why is that so hard for people to do from a psychological standpoint George this is 2020 who wants to wait till next week to get rich we want to get rich this week we want a hot tip that's gonna make us rich very very quickly and we don't have to think about it and that's part of the problem everybody thinks this is easy they see guys on the internet or TV and they say oh I could have done that I could have bought Apple I could have bought Apple 30 years ago well it's not that easy it hasn't it's never been that easy for me I'm not a good trader I'm not a good market timer so I have learned that what's good for me is to wait wait until I find something that's very cheap where I know there's a lot of change positive change taking place and then I act if I told you Georges you told your listeners they could only have 20 investments in their life right be very careful they wouldn't be jumping around all the time saying George what's the price what do I do hey no they would be very very careful we would wait they would research carefully and they wouldn't put their money to work unless they were very very sure and still they might make mistakes but the number of mistakes would cut down a lot if people had some patience or some discipline right but the fact is that you go in and you buy when things are inexpensive when it's unloved and therefore you have a lot of asymmetry in your speculations you limit your downside and your upside is hopefully a lot greater I hope I try I can give you let's see a few years ago well first of all a few decades ago I went to Soviet Union and came away thinking this is never going to work and so I was pessimistic on Russia for the next 45 years or something but then I thought our soul change is taking place and my goodness he was cheap everybody hated Russia if you could spell Russia it puts you in jail yes so but then I thought I saw things changing I knew is extremely cheap with massive amounts of assets so I started buying Russia yeah and I know people have most likely heard you talk about Russia in the past but I want to be very clear with the the viewers or listeners that you you've made some investments there I know you you paint kind of broad strokes but I remember listening to one of your videos back in 2015/16 where you talked about buying ruble denominated government debt and I remember hearing you say that so I went and looked at the charts and of court I think the rules maybe 75 something like that and a couple years maybe a year later went all the way down to maybe 50 or so I don't know if you sold them but I remember getting looking at the rate of return it was like a 17 18 percent interest rate that you could buy and I think that's a more specific example something you've done recently that's it's just money laying in the corner well it was yes and I'm not here to give hot tips but one might look at Russian ruble bonds again yeah they are they do have I yields it's not a credit risk Russia is not going bankrupt whatever happens it's not going bankrupt they have it has very low yep nobody would lend money to the Communists or goodness sakes I don't have a lot of debt like the US or the UK or other country Japan or the countries where everybody loves to lend the money so no I you might look at it against high-yield who knows on that topic I want to get your opinion on oil you're the commodities guru and we had just an unprecedented draw in oil as you know down to negative $40 a barrel so what are your thoughts on that and what do you see for oil in the short term long term well one clarification a futures contract went to negative 40 people weren't buying and selling oil at negative 40 I assure you if you were in Germany you will paying $20 a barrel it wasn't so you could go down to the gas station say guys pay me some money a futures contract in Chicago in a one specific market people weren't buying and selling oil yes but you're exactly right you know George is a and I'm gonna braum the question as I look around the world at asset classes commodities seem to be the cheapest asset class around right now I could have said that last year too but it's certainly true through this year stocks are not very cheap on a historic basis a bonds are a bubble bonds are a disaster I mean if one were clever not that I am but one might short bonds and go long commodities for instance because commodities are certainly very cheap and bonds bonds are not cheap anywhere in the world certainly not in the US or Japan or places like that so I would expect what's happening with oil oil is making a complicated bottom it has been making this complicated you know we'll look back and say 2018 2019 2020 122 oil made it spot you know how bottoms look I mean they bump along for all going sideways up and down up and down so I suspect we look back and say ah and maybe that panic last week was the absolute people look back say well that was a spike bottom there's often a panic bottom that may well have been it but I'm not I'm not smart enough to do you you should watch rebel capitalists to get the time my timing is no good yeah how long do l cycles typically last there's no such thing is typically but but history traditionally ten or fifteen years they frequently do you know in the depression oil God - something like 50 cents that's not a typo 50 says a barrel nine not a dollar 50 or something not fifty cents a gallon for gasoline no no a barrel of oil was selling for a few cents I mean I changed I changed over the next several years but you know you have these like everything L not every day but most things there are cycles of ups and downs yeah so when you're looking at something that's cheap going back to that question or just money that's laying in the corner I know you were adamant with Jack in your interview that there needs to be a specific catalyst I think he brought up the example of Germany and you had just gone in and bought I don't know if his equities or it might just been the broad market because that you thought there was going to be a political change and Jack said well Jim you or you said the market was cheap and Jack said well you could have said that for the last 10 years and then you brought up the catalyst of this political change and that's why you went long so when you're looking for a catalyst whether it's in commodities or stocks or just a macro market what are you looking for to go long and then what type of what are you looking for to sell your position is well except I think that's just as important as when to when to buy well selling is the same thing you look for a change you look for something that's expensive you know if you and often if you get it right something will go from dirt cheap to a bubble or certainly very overpriced over a period of years and everybody gets excited I think you probably know what overpriced looks for everybody's talking about it everybody says it can never go down everybody says oh don't you know this time it's different very dangerous words George as you know when they say this time it's different you don't understand those sides are pretty common they happen all over the world and all markets when something gets overpriced and and if you'll know if it's expensive you'll know if there's wild enthusiasm and then if you see something changing then for the negative then you start to act at least that's how that's how I try to act and how I try to sell and likewise when things are cheap back to Germany in those days well I mean Russia I was negative on Russia for decades but a variety of reasons I came to the conclusion that there was change taking place in the Kremlin I can tell you why I think it but who cares I think that I see change taking place you know for a hundred years in Russia they didn't like capitalist I didn't like rich people they shot you or put you in jail took your money and then put you in jail but I think I see there's changes in the Kremlin and the psyche of the people and so that's why I just said it was very cheap and that's why I decided to invest in Russia that's the sort of thing you look for just trying to think of something right now I'm investing in a very very depressed shipping company because I think I see a lot of strange things happen to the company and management level i guy went to jail for instance the new management is not in jail change is taking place well that's a very good example of a positive catalyst right there the new management team is not in jail go well makes more than that but that is a positive sign yes you
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