저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2020년 1월 Tom Lee는 '그래니샷(granny shot)' 전략을 소개했다. 여러 테마 리스트에 동시에 등장하는 종목을 골라 성공 확률을 높이는 방식이며, 주식 위험 프리미엄이 약 1.9%보다 높은 3.5% 수준이라 채권보다 주식이 유리하다고 주장했다. 테마 측면에서는 밀레니얼 세대의 소비·신용 수요 확대, AI·자동화, 자산집약형 기업을 강조했다. 밀레니얼이 향후 20년간 약 68조 달러를 상속받아 기업 매출과 신용 수요가 커질 것이라며 JP모건 등 금융주와 아메리프라이즈 파이낸셜을 예로 들었다. 브라운포먼은 6개월 단기 전술 종목으로 언급했다. 비트코인에 대해서는 2019년 약 100% 상승으로 가장 좋은 성과를 냈고 2020년에는 수익률이 더 좋을 것이라고 전망했다. 지정학적 긴장, 채굴 보상 반감기, 기관투자 관심 증가를 근거로 들었다. 간접 투자 수단으로 스퀘어(Square)와 그레이스케일의 GBTC를 제시했다. 세금 인상 가능성에 대해서는 향후 10년 내 증세 시 채권 수익률이 더 나빠질 것이며, 증세와 인플레이션, 성장률을 이기려면 주식이나 부동산 같은 실물자산이 유리하다고 주장했다. 소형 자영업(식당, MRI센터 등)을 저평가된 가치투자처로도 언급했다. 향후 10년 주식 수익률이 지난 10년보다 높을 가능성이 크다는 장기 낙관론을 유지했다.
다듬은 글
our next guest is looking at markets through the lens of basketball Tom Lee fun strat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research says granny shots you know those underhanded free throws well they may not look good but they score big points so tell us what your granny shot stock picks are and I have to tell you when I heard the term the first time I was thinking of you know senior citizens who were women actually doing jello shots oh yeah that might be a better you know visual yes granny shots are thematic based stock picks so we have three general thematic views about the next few years you know one is Millennials and others on AI and others around automation and asset heavy and then we have some tactical portfolios and what granny shots is doing is taking stocks that appear in multiple lists so we think it's improving your chances of picking out performing stocks that's why it's not cool because we're not using like one cool model but it's a higher risk reward opportunities higher reward risk opportunity so basically you want to increase the chances that the stock is gonna do well and the analogy you use you are looking at Rick Barry who's a player who threw like basically underhanded right yeses other players who don't have like as you know who wasn't a great free-throw yeah so it doesn't look great so right yeah Rick Barry so mechanically the best free-throw to do is underhanded because it's the best way to do it from a physics perspective and he is yet the best one of the best free-throw percentage in history and he doesn't look cool he doesn't write when he did it you can tell I'm not I'm not big on my best let's make sure we get this I'm going to try and put this into simple terms for those of us want to use this kind of thing but when you talk about the equity risk premium essentially what you're saying is your risk is at a metric that's perhaps better than to playing the safe game and usually that that metric is 1.9 percent but you're identifying perhaps stocks or sectors where that risk premia is actually 3.5% so it's a better bet yeah that's right it's basically saying you're paid to take their risk because you're you've got a cushion against a loss and that's why we risk premia is high it means stocks are essentially better bets than bonds you ask you who yeah I mean it's interesting when you look at this list if you think that some of these are not cool I mean some of them are sort of the common commonly held names like an alphabet or Apple but then you've got Ameriprise Financial on there yeah which is not necessarily brown-forman that's when there's dicks out to me so what what sort of what are the themes that converge for some of these names yeah you wouldn't necessarily think of yeah so an example would be like a mere prize it's it's actually a good way to play what you what will likely happen with Millennials because Millennials are going to become quite credit intensive over the next 20 years you know part of it is you know because they're gonna start buying cars houses they're gonna inherit sixty eight trillion dollars and so companies that that are you know whose volume sensitive and credit will actually do quite well so that's why I'm a prize on there I think JP Morgan and a few others but there's also a tactical element so some of these you know I know that brown-forman is what we consider a six month holding meaning in the next six months the sector that it's intends to outperform so we do tactical plus thematic let me ask you about Bitcoin here because it's kind of broken to the upside I'm just wondering if you have any blockchain companies in their FinTech blaze and what are your thoughts on Bitcoin right now you know Bitcoin had a good year last year even though people in it didn't recover its highs it was the best performing asset right about 100 percent or so yeah so we had three times the return of the SP but in 2020 and we just published our look we think the return of Bitcoin will be even better so I think this is a setup where the geopolitical tensions that are pretty elevated this year plus this thing called a havening which is the block reward for miners getting cut in half plus what I think is improving institutional interest is a real set up for Bitcoin to do great this year and I think if someone's trying to find equities to play this or through the traditional markets companies like square aren't a bad way to get exposure but there's also a publicly listed investment vehicle called gbtc by grey scale investments and from many US investors they could actually access that Tom you talked about the Millennials getting ready to inherit you know basically the greatest wealth transfer in the history of mankind when you think about that talk about how that affects your thinking about markets and stocks over the long run and are there any names on your lists that might be you know how performers on that basis yes yes and and clearly this is going to have a big influence on equities because you have to remember 68 trillion dollars transferring from one one to one single twenty-year generation is equal to the wealth of the entire country of China and Japan combined so it's a monstrous to monstrous amounts of money and it's at a time when their consumption profile is growing so I think the odds of equity returns being better in the next 10 years then the last 10 are quite high so in other words we had a great move from 2009 to 2010 20 to 2030 could do even better can I ask you a little off topic but this wealth transfer is a fascinating concept at a time when you would think Millennials are listening to a political message of raise taxes are they going to continue to perhaps follow that if they're about to inherit a great amount of wealth is that perhaps it's a fair question I mean let's just let's say taxes are uncertainty though they raise taxes in the next 10 years and that's it's likely the return on bonds is going to look even worse and so you want to own something that will outperform the tax hit plus inflation plus growth and that is basically stocks yeah or real assets like real estate so I think havee assets plus equities will be real standout to the next decade so people buying real stuff real things yeah and you know even real businesses you know in some strange way I know people think of when they think of private market said think of private equity but you know that small businesses today might be the value play you know you can buy a restaurant for four times its profits or an MRI Center for three times so if you're an enterprising individual and you don't want to buy health care stocks you could buy an MRI Center for for a little multiple all right Tom Lee managing partner and head of research at funds track Global Advisors with how some people can make a living and not a bad one at that thank you very much and thanks good to see you hey investors sac in
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