Jeffrey Gundlach: We are battling the next recession

요약 보기

결론: 다음 경기침체가 올 것이므로 지금은 공격보다 방어 포지션을 취하고, 회사채 노출은 최소화하며 비미국 자산 비중은 확대해야 한다. 정치·사회 구조 진단: 제4의 전환기(fourth turning) 개념을 빌려, 기술 혁신(소셜미디어·인터넷·자율주행)이 생산수단을 바꾸는데 부의 분배 구조(소유관계)는 느리게 변해 긴장이 커지고 있다고 봤다. 미국 정치의 양극화와 기존 제도에 대한 대중의 불신이 그 신호다. 경기·신용 전망: 연준과 중앙은행이 침체를 막으려 노력하지만 침체는 올 것이며, 그때 구조적 긴장이 급격히 드러난다. 2006년 서브프라임 때처럼 방어를 일찍 시작해야 한다고 강조했다(2018년부터 방어를 권했어야 했다는 취지). 회사채 리스크: 미국 회사채 시장 규모가 2006년의 두 배 이상으로 커졌고, 저금리로 좀비기업이 연명 중이다. 투자등급 회사채의 약 3분의 1은 실제로는 투기등급이어야 한다고 봤고, 침체 시 대규모 강등이 나와 가격이 하락하며 순진한 자금이 이탈할 것으로 전망했다. 회사채 비중은 최소로 줄이라고 권고했다. 자산배분 조언: 글로벌 배분 투자자는 비미국 자산 비중을 상단(예: 30%)까지 늘리고, 미국 자산은 하단 쪽(예: 40%)으로 이동하라고 했다. 채권은 천천히 벌고 빠르게 잃는 특성이 있으니 하락 시 매수할 실탄(dry powder)을 남겨두라고 권했다. 개별 종목·지수 언급: 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없었고, 회사채(투자등급 회사채)를 줄이고 미국 외 자산을 늘리라는 포괄적 조언이 전부다. 출연자 전망 요약: 침체 임박과 신용 리스크 확대를 강하게 경고하며, 2019년 호황에도 방어를 유지하라는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I want to talk about what you see coming next this movie that you see coming just for our viewers who aren't aware you gave the narrative leading up to the credit crisis you were calling subprime an unmitigated disaster before it happened you play defense for your clients a disaster it's going to get worse yes in June of 2007 and you played defense with your clients and then you played often since 2009 foot but you say - there's another one coming this movie of turning if you will fourth turn if you will explain what you are seeing well when I talk about a fourth turning there's a sort of political philosophy that says that the world moves in cycles and there's basically four chapters in the cycle and the first one is the building of institutions with tremendous confidence and buy-in from the public and then when you get into the fourth turning which is where we are now you basically have the public rejecting institutions and the way society operates gets out of sync with the institutions it also ties into Karl Marx's philosophy where you have the means of production and the property relations and the means of production can have innovative change that's really a revolutionary like the internet like social media like radio like The Telegraph with the railroad like television and all that stuff well this time is social media and the Internet and it changes the means of production tremendously just just think about what will happen when we've driverless trucks and driverless cars you're going to put thousands millions of people out of work that have no skills other than to be a chauffeur or livery driver or a truck driver or what have you and those people just get left behind by the revolution in the means of production but the property relations have to do with how the wealth is split up and their various and power and they're very slow to change they don't change in a revolutionary way they they even resist changing in an evolutionary way because the people that benefit from the property relations and have the power they don't want to give it up so what they do is they pretend that you can somehow keep things together even though there's a tension developing between the means of production and the property relations look around at how things are out of sync right now people are running for president trying to say billionaires should be illegal we should eliminate all billionaires we should be you know putting free money into people that have been displaced by the revolution in the means of production and the people who are in charge some people call it the deep state some people call it the establishment whatever you will some people call it you can even call it churches that their their ideologies that existed even twenty years ago have been completely rejected so what has to happen is we need to have a new set of property relations and that is absolutely the kernel beneath the changes in the political system United States that Trump obviously dialed into and now you see the Democrats are really not a party anymore the Democrats basically have a socialist party and they've got they'll keep the genie back and get the genie back in the bottle part of it which is Joe Biden and perhaps Michael Bloomberg and none of these factions can get majority support so that's emblematic of a fourth turning and what it means is that we have to have something resembling a revolutionary change in in the property and the property property relations of the world and that's a really big deal so historically what if fourth turnings led to turmoil the civil war the United States was a fourth turning World War two was a fourth turning us so it doesn't have to be violent like a war but it has to be a complete rejiggering think about what happened pre Civil War in post Civil War I mean there's a huge change and then actually the South managed to sort of put the genie back in the bottle with Jim Crow and actually last a long time but even that now is echoing and being ripped apart so we have what we will have very substantial political change I saw a leading Democrat not one that's running for office actually say if the Bill of Rights the first 10 amendments of the Constitution the Bill of Rights were voted on today significant fraction of it would be voted down that was his viewpoint so the the level of tension is palpable and all you've got to do is look at where we are it would be great if we could have a time machine where you could go back 20 years in time and I think you wouldn't believe your eyes but how different things were 20 years ago versus today but we you get these things very gradual listicle e it's kind of like the tires on your car is the analogy that I use you know you drive your car for like well however many miles your tires are good for let's say it's twenty five thousand miles you don't you don't realize how bad the traction has become because you've experienced the decline so gradually then you get the new tires and you're like wow I can't believe how well this thing handles and the traction in the car well that's kind of how this is developed it's so slow and so where we are in terms of disunity I think would be remarkable in the eyes of somebody from twenty years ago I want to ask you from an investor's perspective how do you see this playing out what do you think happens well we are battling tooth and nail the next recession the Fed has but done in central banks and everything they can to avert the next recession but a recession will come and when it does that's when all of this stuff will accelerate into kind of the parabola and that's why you should be playing defense right now just like you should have been in 2006 you were early I think playing defense is early you probably should start playing defense in 2018 and the fact that 2019 has been really good it's just a better reason to play defense because the next opportunity is going to be in corporate credit not what happens you never have the same crisis twice but if you look at the growth of the corporate bond markets more than twice the size the United States as it was in 2006 and as we know through the prism of 2009 people said all that debt was really ridiculously high we never should have allowed that to happen well now it's twice as big and we have zombie companies there that are allowed to keep going because of these artificially low interest rates and the corporate bond market is probably significantly over rated which sounds a lot like subprime in 2006 there was some of them were rated triple-a and they fell to 20 cents on the dollar so now obviously didn't deserve a triple-a rating right now there are leverage ratios in the investment grade corporate bond market that suggests that nearly a third of the investment grade corporate bond market probably should be rated junk right now but they've been given a pass because they say well like AT&T is one of them they've given a pass because they say well we know that we have excessive debt it's kind of imprudent but we know about it and so we will be addressing that problem in the future and they're being given a pass well when the recession comes there won't be any idea of addressing these leverage ratios are just gonna get a lot worse when the recession comes and you're gonna see unmasked down gradings of the investment grade corporate bond market and trust me when a triple B rated bond gets dropped down to a single B rating the price doesn't go up the price goes down and that I think will lead to very significant divestment of a lot of the naive money that's gone into the corporate bond market because it's been a pretty smooth ride for the last ten years and it's been pretty rewarding this year as well and so I think a lot of money doesn't understand the risk that exists in corporate bonds particularly when the next downturn comes and so I think that corporate bond exposure should be at absolute minimum levels right now and I also think that non-us exposure should be ramped up to maximum levels for people that allocate globally I think they should be moving towards their minimum of their range weather whatever that number is if they say the minimum that we're gonna have in the United States is forty percent they should be moving towards forty percent if the maximum in foreign bond of foreign assets is supposed to be I know 30 percent you should be moving towards 30 percent and playing defense and then when they when the opportunity comes you'll want dry powder you know the to pounce on if you underperform during this late cycle kind of and in game you're going to get caught because once bonds in particular start to drop I was saying in bonds you make money slowly and you lose money quickly it's like they go from you know making money is going from the bonds going from a hundred to one hundred and three losing money is the bonds go from a hundred two fifty and so you want to be there with dry powder to buy the fifty and that means selling the 103