저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Dan Ives는 관세 우려가 과도했다며 AI 혁명 다음 단계로 테크 신고점이 가까이 왔다고 주장. 관세는 축소되어 10% 기본관세 수준으로 소화 가능하다고 봄. 테슬라는 자율주행·로보틱스 중심으로 시총 2조 달러 가능, 주가 12~18개월 내 두 배(기본 $500, 강세 $600) 전망. 엔비디아 단기 $175~200, 장기 $250 제시. 마이크로소프트 $500+ 가능, 팔란티어 향후 2~3년 내 시총 1조 달러 전망. 애플은 AI 소비자 접근의 관문으로 강세 견해 유지.
다듬은 글
Dan Ies is with us, global head of tech at Wed Bush Securities. Your name is the name everybody breathes when they talk about the Mag 7 and Tesla and Nvidia. Dan, I've said this and Dan, I've said that and you've been bullish and you've been pretty much right over the many years. Um, this morning I want to get to some of the headlines that I know are coming up, but you know what's on I didn't see your notes today.
when you woke up this morning, what was the first thing you thought when you thought about this market after an incredible May? I mean, Nicole, I I think new all-time highs for tech are are on the horizon because in my opinion, you know, this is just the start of the next stage of the AI revolution playing out.
And I think look, the tariffs obviously continue to be in the background and that's going to continue to come up in terms of the volatility, but I think the reality is bar's going to be worse than the bite. And I think Trump administration further and further would just take steps back from the cliff.
That's sort of our view. Yeah. Because originally you were very worried that we were pushed back decades um with the Trump tariffs and all that. You were extremely worried. Um but now you're back to the rhetoric of new highs and the AI revolution and you do you expect new highs for tech. When would that be?
Six months, 12 months? I think closer. I mean, I think as we get towards summer, you know, into fall, you're going to have deals on the table, you know, whether it's India, whether it's Vietnam, whether it's South Korea, at least some framework of deals. And then I think it speaks to where the spending is.
I mean, you're going from chips now to software. And I think software is really going to be where in terms of AI revolution, that's going to be a huge driver. And then you look at the autonomous future, robotics. I mean, that that right now is kind of going to be like the where the next stages are of AI spend.
Yeah, we have Tesla coming up um with its whole event now in Austin, right? I mean, that's around the corner. What is that, June 9th? So, robo taxis, more maybe on full self-driving. Some of your thoughts there. Look, I think that's it's a trillion dollars of value to to Tesla's stock. I mean to me it's going to be a golden age for Tesla led by autonomous and now you got the biggest asset of Tesla Musk you clearly refocus which I think is so important into this next chapter and I believe that's how you're going to see a $2 trillion valuation for Tesla.
I think a big piece of that is autonomous and robotics that's going to drive that. So, uh, right now when you see Tesla's stock, you think with a $2 trillion valuation, what does that mean for the stock price when Tesla today is at 341? Where does this go? I mean, I think, look, I think this could be a double next 12 to 18 months.
I mean, that's our view. $500 is our base case, 600 bull case. But it it speaks to my view that the biggest part of the value in Tesla is ahead because autonomous and robotics. And I think when it comes to physical AI, Tesla and Nvidia, the two best pure play AI names along of course with Palunteer.
I was looking at some of the numbers. I mean, is this hogwash? I mean, does it not matter that um you know, BYD was up 40% with its sales, X paying 230%. While you know, Tesla numbers were falling. Um the sales in China, the sales in Europe, it didn't look that great for Tesla. I'm not saying Tesla's not absolutely great.
I'm just saying some of the others just have some really impressive numbers right now. You worried? No. Look, BYD, it's been phenomenal growth. But I mean, our whole view for Tesla is first off, you're going to have a rebound second half of the year as you have refreshes and I think you'll start to see growth come back in China.
But a big part of the value going forward, it's going to be about AI. It's not necessarily going to be about units, about monetization of the 10 million Teslas on the that have been sold to date. And to me, that's really the story when it comes to Tesla going forward. Although clearly, you do have to see a rebound in China.
You have to see some sort of stabilization Europe as well as a rebound in the US. But a lot of that is going to be new models and and ultimately the nextG vehicle coming out. did see Musk's a X AI um launches $5 billion debt sale through Morgan Stanley. I guess that's neither here nor there. It's not really publicly traded, but does take Musk's attention.
But I think you called Elon Musk and told him get out of Doge and get back to work. Is that what you did? And again, I mean, my whole point is there as someone that's such a believer in Tesla and such a believer in Musk, it was there was no choice. He had to leave. And I think it's not coincidental the stock's done what it has since he announced that because this is now the next stage that he needs to drive for Tesla and he can't do it when he's sitting in the beltway.
All right. So generally you come on here and you like Nvidia and you like Microsoft and you like Zscaler and you like um MongoDB and you like Palunteer. These are all names that you've told me you like. Which of those names and by the way someone told me today Google they felt that was the least um overvalued in the Mag 7.
Which names if someone said I want to make some money which names would you pick? I mean, look, I believe on on the the cloud play, it continues to be Microsoft. That's the one as we go into next stage AI, I think that that that could be a $500 plus stock. So, to me, Microsoft's one front and center that sits there.
When you look on the software side, I I believe Palunteer next two or three years, the trillion dollar market cap. I think that is continues to be underestimated in terms of what they're doing, how they're really driving the future when it comes to core AI. And then we've talked about Nvidia, 4 trillion, then eventually 5 trillion.
There's one chip in the world fueling AI and it's the godfather of AI gent. And where do you think Nvidia will be priced one day? Look, I think ultimately you're going to be looking at, you know, $250 stock, you know, as this all sort of plays out near-term 175 to 200. Obviously, tariffs clearly have derailed some of the in terms of China, but but I don't think that that story is done, right?
In terms of the China piece, I think as you as you think about USChina negotiations, getting back some of that's going to be key because Nvidia is not just handing that China business to Huawei. Look, you know, I was terribly worried when you started to be really worried and now you seem less worried.
I just don't fully understand the turnaround unless you had a personal um conversation with President Trump or something, which I wouldn't doubt. um you know it you really went from very worried and you had some of our guests really worried and now less so you're back on the it's going to be two children 5 trillion this double um it just is the tariffs are not going away I mean I the tariffs are going to be here they're just going to be less but there's still going to be tariffs yeah but Nicole if you go back to like those dark days that was really like the tariffs that were on the table were we're going going to cut us tech off the knees.
Then ultimately the 90-day reprieve clearly understanding that you're going to need to have significant deals. The China got deescalated. I mean, I think when it's all said and done, you're going to have a 10% baseline tariff and you'll have incremental reciprocal tariffs 5 10%. That's digestible. But if you go back to that first week and especially that first two week till really Bessant, you know, took control of things.
I mean, it was it was a scary time. I mean, you talked about that, but that's why it's so dramatically different relative to what was potentially on the table to now it's going to be a fraction, right? And and we saw the board. We saw the board and some of those tariff numbers that seemed right. I It was a lot.
It was a lot for Wall Street to take in without anybody to take in. What about Apple? Last but not least, I mean, you started talking about if Apple were making phones here. It's going to cost me a bazillion dollars to get a new iPhone. Are you really worried about that? It's a fairy tale. US be iPhones being built in the US.
Unless you want $3,500 iPhones, then we should build them in New Jersey or Long Island. If you like thousand iPhones, you build them in China or India. And my view continues to be Cook's done everything that a Hall of Fame CEO can do in terms of navigating around tariffs toward India where I think now continues to be the life raft.
And I think there's going to be more and more negotiations. But our bullish view of Apple is the consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple. 70% of consumers are going to access AI through an Apple device. What's the number one phone in the world uh and in the US in particular? and is it iPhone and does it stay in the top spot and sort of you know whipball the Androids and all this?
What's the number one phone right now? I mean look I mean depending on the global market share I think it continues to be Apple but especially when you look at monetization overall revenue opportunity but I think looking at the phone itself underestimates what Apple's done because of the app store because you you have a hundred billion dollar services plus where I think that's ultimately going to 150.
So that that's a huge part of the valuation of Apple which I believe yet again will be you know top market cap as we look out over the next 69 months. Okay Dan Ies glad to see you. Thank you so much for being on today. Dan Ies global head of tech research at managing director senior equity analyst Wed Bush Securities. I love when Dan Ies able to join us. Thank you.
Comments 0