저자: JDDurkin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 대통령의 애플 생산 미국 이전 요구와 관세 우려로 애플 주가가 장전 약 3% 하락 전망. 애플 생산 이전 시 아이폰 가격이 크게 오를 수 있다는 점과 중국 내 경쟁 심화 언급. 테슬라는 최근 한 달간 약 36% 상승했으며, 댄 아이브스가 목표가를 350달러에서 500달러로 상향. 머스크의 CEO 장기 잔류 및 정치활동 축소 약속이 긍정 요인으로 언급되었고, 오스틴 로보택시 출시 예정. 반면 BYD, 웨이모 등 경쟁과 EU 관련 트럼프 게시물이 하방 압력으로 지적됨.
다듬은 글
Right. Okay. So, you know who else is very ready? That's JD Durkin Schwab network contributor here sitting here live at the desk with me. And the Apple story is a big one. Yeah. I guess speaking of muscle up and maybe muscle down more is the storyline here for Apple. Uh, of course, given the president's uh very critical post a short time ago, you and Kevin there were breaking it down.
I've long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple about expectations, says the president, to sell, to manufacture, basically to move the entire production hub. As unrealistic as a lot of analysts say that is, Nicole, the president wants that firmly on short here in the United States. I'm reminded of what our friend Dan Ies over at Wed Bush is very fond of saying, Nicole, which is if you like your $1,000 iPhone, it's got to be made in China.
If you want to build and produce your iPhone in Sukakus, New Jersey, it's probably going to be $3 to $4,000. That is the economic reality of the global manufacturing sphere that we in uh that we are in. We are expecting Apple shares to gap down about 3% after this post from the president in the pre-market.
Uh we'd see the stock trade around 194 to 195. That would be its lowest level in the last couple of weeks. And particularly surprising to me, Nicole, when I was a Trump White House reporter during Trump 1.0, Tim Cook was the shining example of how a CEO of a publicly traded company could very much play the game to have his company avoid the worst of the tariff tit fortat.
Dan Ies is very fond of saying that Tim Cook is 90% CEO, 10% politician. Clearly those political ties between uh the chief of Apple and the commander-in-chief a bit afraid today uh leading to this pre-market movement. And you know I I'll tell you right I saw Apple raises iPhone tradein prices in China to fend off Huawei and Xiaomi and um you know some lagging sales there.
There are competitors. You don't have to have an iPhone. You don't have to have the most expensive iPhone, but people are addicted to the Apple ecosystem. It it just is what it is and people who love it love it. And they kind of make it like inescapable at a point, right? I mean, once you're in, and then we that kind of leads to the broader conversation about a so-called forced upgrade cycle that we had been wondering, would consumers feel the rush to go out, feel the need to buy that new iPhone, buy that new iPad, buy those Apple hardware devices ahead of expected price increases for tariffs?
Uh, and now all this, I think, is very much kind of thrown into limbo. Um, but look, we were saying in the last hour, Nicole, to Kevin's point, we were expecting this to be a very quiet, very low volume trading day heading into the 3-day weekend. Clearly the president and now the financial markets had a different uh series of plans for this trading Friday.
Yeah, understood. I mean, and what happened to the whole super cycle and Apple intelligence and I just we sort of thought we were going to just really get this wow moment and and while there's been advancements, there hasn't been that big wow moment at but you got to love your Apple if you love your Apple, right?
It's just something special. How about Tesla? So, we've been watching Tesla this month. one month I'll say 36% higher on Tesla and Dan Ies is out talking about Tesla today, right? Yeah, he absolutely is. We know that Dan is the ultimate permable here on the street. He now has the highest price target for Tesla, raising his target from $350 all the way up to $500.
This is what Dan Ies and I think a lot of analysts have been looking for. They want to see a commitment from Elon Musk, not just to the company, which we did get earlier this week, uh, when he said that he expects to be CEO for at least the next 5 years, but analysts like Ives and many others, Nicole, they really want to see a commitment to pulling back in the spare time political activities and the political spending.
We got that news out of Elon Musk earlier this week. And I think that's kind of the sweet spot, the perfect formula that Dan had been looking for for a long time to boost that price target. But then again, we were expecting pre-market movement for Tesla stock to be in positive territory. Not so much the case specifically, I think, after that EU related post on Truth Social from the president.
I mean, we've also heard from Elon Musk this week. Had a really good week about robo taxes. He was out doing an interview on media which really gave people a lot of hope that he was back in action and focusing. But he talked about the potential for robo taxes and things that are coming on sooner than later.
And that was good news. And we are expecting a robo taxi roll out to start in Austin next month which is awesome. Very cool city, very important to the Tesla kind of ecosystem and the structure. There's a big conversation about whether or not the company will really lean into geo fencing which kind of sets it apart from some other names in the competition.
But uh you know really you know in Dan Ives estimation he thinks that shares can rally of the stock more than 45%. that there are about 40 analysts on the street who have price targets. Given the volatility, given the uncertainty, a lot of them far more bearish than Dan Ives has. Of course, they're expecting the stock to drop in the next 12 months.
Dan, of course, the ultimate permeable see things at least for now playing out a bit differently. Yeah. And so also, you know, the acceleration of the cyber cab in particular and said just saying that that's the golden goose. Dan Ies wrote at the same time, you know, there's competition. Whimo CEO is taking aim at Tesla.
Talking about the camera only approach. You have to be able to have vision that's better than humans. Uh you know obviously we know Whimo is a serious competitor. Yeah. As is BYD overseas in China and specifically when you talk about Asian market kind of general market share. Arguably the competitor that has most put downward pressure on Tesla is BYD.
But of note, I was watching his comments this week at the Qar Economic Forum and in other interviews, and Musk says, "I don't even look at competitors. I'm not paying attention to BYD." I don't know to how how much of a degree that's actually true. But that's at least been his public posture as late because we know the competition for the EV space, Nicole.
It continues to heat up. And a lot of these subsidies and support from the federal government, they're tied right now into this so-called big, beautiful bill that is still working its way and being litigated in the hallways of Congress. We're going to see a lot more conversations about the sweet spot, I think, between legislation and EV vehicles coming up as the Senate takes on that bill.
Look, I mean, this is all about AI and as you mentioned, kicking off in Austin, Texas this June, people are really excited for that on autonomous vision. Um, but you know, if he's not watching, I'm sure he's watching, but uh, you know, BYD obviously has been selling more cars in China than Tesla. And now I saw in Europe they beat out um Tesla for the first time in Europe.
So they're definitely neck and neck as far as car sales. Now who's going to win in the AI autonomous full self-driving game? I don't know. Okay, JD Durkin, great to see you. Thank you so very much. Good luck there at Apple and Tesla, two big names. I mean, everybody remembers when Tesla just sold off and we were down 50%. So you you've made some of that back, folks.
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