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반도체 ETF(SOXX)와 미국 주요 지수는 단기 조정 가능성이 있으나 상승 추세 유지 중이라고 봄. 나스닥·다우·S&P500 모두 지지선 테스트 전망. 닛케이·DAX 등 해외 증시는 추세 유지 관점. 달러/엔 하락 추세, 파운드/달러 상승 시도, 호주달러 박스권 돌파 대기. 금은 신고가 근처 강세 시나리오, 백금 강세, 원유 약세 가능성. 미국채 10년 금리 상승 쪽으로 봄. 비트코인 사상 최고가(11.2만 달러) 경신 후 조정, 이더리움 2,739 저항 돌파 여부가 관건.
다듬은 글
Good morning and welcome to Kramer's Corner with daily technical update. It is Friday the 23rd of May. This video is an educational video only. There's no recommendation or advice whatsoever. And we'll start with the semiconductor or sucks uh ETF uh representing the index uh lower yesterday about a percent and very close to test 20575 support and could if it closes below well it could try to close this gap down to around 195.
Will it do that or not that would be questionable. Uh but uh if it does uh well then there are lower levels. However, I do think we could bounce off a little bit and uh then try to uh resume uptrend. But we do have a top and reversal like pattern in place here with this dogee here. Uh the um RSI well there's maybe a slight diver there's no I don't think there's any divergence.
There's no divergence there actually see. So uh we could see higher levels. Not that we'll see it, but uh um let's uh keep an eye out for if it bounces off support. The um S&P 5 index unchanged yesterday. Still support here at 5,783 and 5,695 here. Uh pre-market a little bit lower. Could test it here.
It's the US 500. Uh could test 5,786. Maybe a little bit lower. We have the 100 and the uh 200 moving averages coming up there. adding some uh to this support. The NASDAQ 100s um unchanged yesterday and not much to to say really. We still have some support, key support here at 2613, a little bit here 2818 if it closed below the 2613.
Well, if it try to close this gap down to 2292. Uh but here we have uh the 100 moving average. We have the 200 coming up here. So that would be actually supported. We can see here pre-market uh little bit negative uh but not much and um I think we could see it down to at least 2761 here uh maybe lower if it starts taking out that also then again 20,350 uh down uh the the Dow Jones Dow Jones index uh below the support here at 41 uh 899 um key will it close the uh gap down to 41382 that would be key to watch.
Uh if it does well then we could have a different situation but there's no divergence on the positive RSI indicating we could see like we could see higher levels later uh here premarket not much to say really in Asia we have uh Hen uh dancing around this uh 786 retracement here at 236 73. Uh so it is pausing a little bit.
We have a bit of divergence here. We can see RSI values declining. Market closed higher. So a little bit maybe of a trend exhaustion. Could see a correction maybe down to around 23,000. But we are still in a bullish trend. So trust the trend for now. But do be aware that we could see a correction. The uh Nikkei um fairly positive day and could bounce here uh the next few days.
Still positive sentiment on the RSI. No divergence indicating we could see it pushing higher. And if it starts crawling back above uh 38,000 um and above the moving averages here's the 200 and and the 100 then maybe it could crawl up and and test the previous peak and 39,000. European markets um US50 a bit down yesterday but it recovered towards the end.
Um I still believe that we will see a correction possibly down to around 5,300 but we have some stronger support here in this region. We have the 100 moving average coming up and 55 despite declining a little bit it is starting to turn around. So I think maybe if we get a correction down here uh then it will uh bounce a bit.
Let's see here pre-market. Um not really much to say. Support at 5,313. So 5,313 or 5,300 could be tested. Uh but there are some stronger uh support there. Uh the uh DAX um yeah a little bit lower yesterday but not much to talk about. Still key that stays above 23 338 uh pre-market. Not much to talk about really.
So it's opening unchanged. Uh there's still positive sentiment and no divergence on the RSI indicating we could see higher levels, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit of a correction on the FX market and Euro dollar. Well, uh still below resistance at 11380 and that is key there. also the 618 retracement if it does close above it uh then I think we will see downtrend uh sorry uptrend to resume downtrend to be over uh but it will resume the downtrend if it moves back below 11065 especially closing below uh if RSI closes back below back above 60 threshold it will further confirm a bullish trend with a potential above 116 uh cable here sterling dollar as we speak is trying to another push above the resistance here at 134 45.
If it stays above and uh then we could see it towards 137 in this region here possibly higher and if we're looking at the weekly chart uh there's not much strong resistance until 137 and a half and then we are suddenly up in in this region here. It's and that will not be an unlikely scenario but it won't play out in a day or two.
It will take a little bit longer. We have Euro sterling um resistance here at 8465 that it didn't break and got rejected just below the 55 moving average could take out the uh uh the low here at 83 uh 85 and uh it is not a likely it will do that because we are negative sentiment and if it does well then we're looking at 83 level 8315 uh to uh to drop to Dollar Yen well still in downtrend and I still believe we could see a testy lows here at 142 area.
Uh some stronger support. It already has broken below the 786 retracement. Uh bounced a little bit but seems to continuing lower and moving averages are pointing lower. Uh key will be will RSI be uh bouncing off 40 threshold or close below? If it does close below, expect even lower levels on dollar yen.
The euroy yen um still this weird slightly uptrend. We do have higher highs and higher lows, higher highs. And here we don't really have much. It's it's testing the previous low uh very close to at least there at 16159. Um still above this slightly rising trend line there. It's it's not the most uh significant one, but we have the 55 moving average that is giving some support and we still have positive sentiment on the RSI, but if we close back below 161 here and RSI below 40 threshold, then I think we could easily see it down to 159.
The um Aussie yen um 382 retracement at just below 92 still holding on. If it takes it out, then I think we could see a sell off down to around uh 90 it's about 60 support area here and also we have the lower part of cloud RSI still in positive sentiment and there was no divergence so it actually does indicate it could push higher but I don't see it happening actually um there is some you have all the moving average declining and trying to drag it lower basically uh so the underlying trend it tells us the underlying trend is actually bearish despite this uh push up here however I I do think we could see a little bit of a bounce before the a drop lower.
Uh sterling yen well uh bounced off just above the uh 55 and 100 moving average and the 786 retracement here at 191 and 60. Um so still holding on there still positive sentiment on the RSI also here indicating we could see higher levels. Uh but it is a little bit of I think it will rangebound around the 192 here for quite some time.
So I I I want to uh there's no clear picture really on on uh most of the yen crosses uh to be fair. Aussie dollar well still in this triangle like pattern here. Um still in a bullish trend really and positive sentiment indicating it should push higher but the 200 moving average is dragging it lower or holding it back there.
But we have the 100 and the 55 moving average coming up. So I think it will be boxed in here between 65 and 63 and a half for quite some time where it really needs to break out of. Um I think I will add a uh horizontal line here and say if it takes out the uh the 65 and a bit there 6515 then expect higher levels.
We have uh dollar Canada um still holding on above the 786 retracement here. uh RSI is still holding on uh above 40 years old but it was previously below and we are in a negative sentiment. So we I think we will see it lower. We can also see all the moving averages. Um they are catching up now and they will uh quite likely push it lower and could push it down to around 13750.
Uh Sterling Canada well it's really lacking momentum to continue on higher. You can also see the 55 moving average is is kind of fading here, but there's positive sentiment on the RSI. So, we should see it higher, but do expect a little bit of a test maybe of this rising trend line there. US well also still rangebound basically between 94 uh 20 and uh 92 uh 97.
So, uh just below 93 here. breakout is um uh crucial. I think it will be to the downside. We can see a moving average all declining here now. Uh still negative sentiment on the RSI. So I think we'll have a go at the support down here at the uh dollar Swiss um support at uh just around 82. That is key.
Uh if it takes out that well then I think we'll see it pushing lower towards uh 81 level and possibly uh also lower. uh could bounce a little bit but uh all moving areas declining so I think it's just a matter of time before it will uh push lower also negative sentiment on the uh RSI indicator indicating lower levels and especially if it closes below 40 threshold that will most likely will play out uh the um dollar index let's just move this a little bit um bounced off the 618 retracement at 99 and a quarter uh if it takes out the lows here from a few days ago to 9920 then I We'll see a test of 9868 support and the 786 retracement and quite likely also a break lower uh also all moving average declining 100 is uh uh one or two days from uh breaking below the 200 and uh RSI if it close back below 40 which I believe it will well then uh we will see uh lower levels on the dollar index.
gold dancing around the 618 retracement here. Um if RSI moves back above 60 threshold, then expect it to push up to 3,400 and possibly higher up to 3,435. If it takes out that, then I think we'll see a new all-time high above the uh spike up there at 3500 or at least being tested. So that's I think I think it's what's what's warming up for maybe at the moment.
55 moving average coming up here giving some support. Um so but if it's it could slide lower so be aware but um for now it seems to uh be to the bullish side and especially if it takes out the peak from yesterday then I think that will uh scenario play out. Uh silver got rejected there yesterday at 3370.
um if it takes it out and I don't think we need a close uh above it. That would confirm it of course, but if it takes it out, I think we'll see a fairly swift push up to around $35. Uh just very quickly um on uh platinum uh platinum has uh uh continued pushing higher and now towards the 1100 and maybe 1130 here uh that are levels back from from uh two years ago.
So platinum really on the move at the moment. And finally on copper copper still in this range here between 481 and 449. Energy uh crude oil WTI testing a minor support there at 64.47. Uh it did uh dip just below it. If it takes out a second time then I think we will see lower levels uh down in the uh region around 55 here again.
and especially if it's being supported by RSI closing below 40 threshold. Uh brand crude oil also testing its minor support there at uh 6344. Uh if it takes it out I think we will see a push down to 61 uh 618 retracement possibly lower to the 60 level maybe even down to these levels here. Still negative sentiment on the RSI however there is divergence.
You see this um value here on RSI is higher than over here. But the closing prices here were lower than here. So it is indicating trend exhaance. So maybe we'll just be in the trading in this range here between 60 and 67 for for quite a while. Uh the European gas uh fading again got knocked down by the 55 moving average.
RSI didn't close above 60 threshold and could slide back in this range here between 36 and 34 again. Uh the uh US net gas Henry hop also sliding lower and we have the 55 that broke below the two the 100 was um so uh the medium-term outlook uh to the downside but we have the 200 coming up so a little bit longer term to the upside.
So I think we'll be boxed in here between three and a half area and $3 for quite some time. Yields, US Treasury yields um spiked higher towards 465. Didn't get all the way there just yet. I think it will eventually. Uh just need to find a little bit of ground here around 455 moving average coming up.
Uh 200 also coming up. Positive sentiment on the RSI and it it does look like that that's the way we are headed. uh RSI on week is still below 60 threshold. Uh but we are building a higher low and higher high. So uh it seems like we are building an uptrend. If RSI close back above 60 threshold on the weekly it will further confirm that we won't be happy about it.
Uh because it's not good uh for the yields is not going to we're not too happy about it. Uh here the 2year uh still below uh 403 minor resistance. had the 100 moving average come down. Kind of put a lid on here with the 200 and 100 moving averages. Moving on to the um European yields. Uh here we have EU 10year.
Uh still key resistance for 271 and we are not there yet. So uh I think it could be a range down in this area here around 260 265 uh for a bit. Uh but if it does close above 271, well then we could see a a a swift push towards 283. Uh the UK 10 year uh spiked above uh the resistance here at 480 481 uh and drop back um and I think it could slide a little bit lower here.
Uh but the uh trend is actually bullish and 55 moving average coming up adding to the uh fairly positive or bullish scenario. And in crypto, well, we have uh yesterday a new alltime high in uh Bitcoin, 112,000 and now setting back a little bit. Um so yes, it actually did take out this uh um uh resistance there.
Uh and there could be further upside in the coming uh days and weeks uh to Bitcoin. Uh but do expect some setbacks here. Um but for as long as stays above 100,000 then it is in a bullish trend. Ethereum testing resistance here at 2739. Um and it will be key to break above that. If it does well then we could see a push up to uh 3,000 and 3,000 and and a bit.
All right, that's all for today. Have a nice day and a nice weekend when you get to there. Talk again Monday.
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