저자: Kramer'sCorner · 외국인
요약 보기
기술적 분석 교육 영상으로, 반도체 ETF(SOXX)가 강세이며 S&P500·나스닥·다우·항셍·유로스톡스50이 상방 추세를 유지할 것으로 보고 있음. 달러 및 주요 환율·원자재·비트코인에 대해 지지/저항 레벨 중심으로 설명하며, 영상 스스로 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시함. 금은 3,200달러 지지선 이탈 여부를 주시하라고 함.
다듬은 글
Good morning and welcome to Kramer's Corner with a daily technical update. It is Wednesday the 14th of May and uh this is an educational video. There's no recommendation whatsoever intended for this. There's no advice. It is purely technical analysis to demonstrate how I read the markets and uh you can maybe learn from it.
Um we'll start with the uh semiconductor ETF. um or sucks as it's also called um after closing at the um the uh 12th uh Monday the 12 above uh resistance at 205 and a quarter. It continued uh yesterday. It was a massive gap. It did there and it continued yesterday. RSI above 60 threshold. We are pushing higher.
And if we're looking at the weekly chart, we can see this massive uh jump here. And um we are on it way back to uh previous uh highs or at least uh getting close to it. We paused yesterday at the 200 moving average. If it can continue a little bit higher today pre-market not much to talk about then well we could see it up to around 230 235 maybe a little bit high RSI indicates um at least that's the way we are going.
If it suddenly slides back and closes back below 205, uh then it could try to close this gap and we have a different situation on the main indices. Uh S&P 500 um got rejected here at 5,95 resistance. Uh but RSI still positive, no divergence indicating we are likely to see it pushing higher in the coming uh days and weeks.
There will be setbacks of course here. pre-market we up about a quarter percent. So it seems like we are still pushing higher and I think we could see it very close to at least uh the previous all-time highs on the um NASDAQ index um also higher towards minor resistance at 21,455 uh also very close to its pre previous all-time high.
So uh basically uh we are almost back to uh where we started the year and which we can see the start of the year around these levels here back here in uh in January. Uh also Dow Jones uh we have it got rejected there at 42518 minor resistance yesterday but also positive sentiment indicating likely uh to push higher in the coming weeks.
just pausing a little bit. Uh I think in Asia this morning, Hen um it's up about 2% and it could very well take out this uh little peak here and the 786 retracement at 23673. bullish trend, positive sentiment uh likely to push higher and uh we could see it back to uh the uh previous peaks here uh just below 25,000.
It will be a little bit of a struggle but uh our trend is intact unless it starts sliding back below 22500 in Europe. Euro stocks 50 also higher yesterday above the cloud above uh RSI above 60 threshold excuse me uh indicating to push higher so very close to its all-time highs also uh which is just around 5,600 uh just below there and um we are in a positive there will be setbacks of course but I'm not worried uh uh unless we starts moving back below 5,225 here pre-market more or less unchanged DAX uh had a little bit of a pause here um yesterday.
Um um I don't know why it's not updating. There we are. Um it is struggling a little bit for further momentum after new all-time high and we had this bearish candle here. If it starts taking it out to the downside then we could see a correction uh down to and let me just add that support there. There will be some support here around 22,818 where we have this gap area here and I can just as well just draw it.
We have a bigger gap area there and uh that will be at the um the key uh levels to look out for uh here premarket of about one uh about.3%. So it there is still bias out there for sure. Euro dollar keeps bouncing it seems uh from uh the uh 11055 what was it down 11065 didn't dip all the way down to 10 and a half um before bouncing and what I will do I will add a Fibonacci to this one just to give me some guidelines at least uh we could see the bounce continue up to the 382 retracement at 12 uh60 and that was also the uh 618 eight retracement of the uh oh sorry the uh 382 retracement of the downtrend here.
So uh there is a little bit of resistance here but the key strong resistance will be up here in this region uh which is also about the 618 retracement of this sell off there and um at 1380 uh if it gets back above that then uh uptrend has resumed uh push below uh yesterday's low no sorry Monday's low at 11065 then I think we could see it dropping down to the 786 retracement at one uh uh 09 uh10 area.
Uh cable sterling dollar uh bounced also after it getting to the uh 382 retracement at 13160 uh bouncing there. H if it takes out also Monday's lows then expect a sell off down to around 113 uh but for now we are bouncing a little bit uh to resume uptrend above uh previous peak here at 134 uh 45 and then uptrend is to resume.
Euro sterling uh has dropped to the 786 retracement at 84 and the 100 moving average giving some support there. I think we will see a little bit of a bounce possibly up to 84 and a half 8460 65. Um but if it starts if it keeps sliding lower well then there's not really much support until around 8315 dollar yen uh that got rejected at the 786 retracement here at 14880.
Um just below it here at the uh resistance at 14865. So in this region very strong resistance uh support here at 14650. Uh it could bounce off from there and maybe then have another go at the resistance up here at 148 6580 level. Um if it takes out 14650 uh then we could see further downside and then if that uh occurs I will add a Fibonacci to this uh bullish move there and say okay then we could probably see it down to 14475 uh 143 uh70 possibly uh euro yen uh got up to the 165.
We talked about it for the past couple of weeks it it was likely to push up there. I think it will push higher towards 16655 even at this peak up here. Um we have positive sentiment on the RSI. All moving averages are now pointing uh up and we have a gold cross there with the 55 taking out and breaking above the 100 and 200 moving average.
They all rising. So there is potential higher 26550. The um Aussie yen uh is uh up here at the uh stronger resistance and we can move this trend line to there at very close to 9575 resistance. Positive sentiment on the RSI. No divergence indicating likely higher levels. Also where we can see the 55 moving average starts to turn around and in a couple of days the uh 21 coming up here is likely to break above the rising uh 55 that will support it uh further.
So I think if you see a close above 9575 uh we are looking at 95 and a half at least and possibly all the way up to 99. Uh but that will take a little bit of a time. Uh but uh there's some resistance here also resistance with the 200 moving average coming down uh giving some resistance. Sterling yen uh reached the 1764 projection of this correction here at 19637 more or less spot on actually reach 19640.
Um could continue higher because uh positive sentiment and no uh divergence on the RSI indicating likely higher levels towards 197 uh possibly back to this uh area up here in the 198 level. Uh it will not be without some corrections. Uh the moving averages are needs to catch up a little bit but most of them are starting to point to higher levels.
Aussie dollar well stepping sideways in in in a quite wide range here at 6340 which we've been talking about. There's a little bit of support there. We have the 55 coming up adding to the support is slowly coming up. The 100 also still positive sentiment on the RSI. No divergence. I think we'll see a push up to 6550 at least we should see that uh possibly up to and let me just add there's really strong uh resistance here uh around 668067 uh dollar Canada dollar Canada and let me just zoom in um price got rejected at 200 moving average could expect a setback uh lower and also here if you're using your charts you can uh add the Fibonacci to that and say Okay.
Uh maybe we should see it down to the 618 retracement at 13852 possibly down to 786 at 138 just above that level. If it can't get back above uh 140 uh 27 here if it needs to get up. If it do that well then there's further upside potential. Um but then uh to uh 141 but then we have the 55 giving it a hard time uh to the uptrend.
So, uh, it will probably be shortlived if it gets up there. Sterling Canada really still a rangebound. So, let's give it for now. I've been talking about this for for for several days and weeks now. US Swiss dancing around the 618 retracement at uh just below 94 at 9390. Spiked up to the 200 uh back down.
So it is trying to get up there to uh 9415 possibly 94 and a half but it's really struggling at the moment. There should be potential um but it with all the moving averages here there is a really strong resistance still negative sentiment on the RSI. So um 92 uh 98 was the low. If that's being taken out to the downside then expect a push down to 9220.
I think we will see another go uh to push up to to these levels here uh between 9415 and 94 and a half. Uh dollar Swiss set back after reaching uh only 50% I did expect it all the way up to 618 at uh 85 40 45 but it didn't uh play out uh at least not yet. still negative sentiment on the RSI which got rejected at 60 threshold so it didn't go into a positive sentiment.
Uh and if it starts sliding back below uh 8335 then maybe uh the downtrend could resume. Um so uh keep an eye on those levels there at least if we have a new situation. the dollar index that got rejected at the 618 retracement at 101 180 sliding back if it's closing well it closed the gap on the way up will it also uh then uh more or less cancel it getting back below 100 but 23 uh then um then uh uh downtrend could resume or we could also be stuck rangebound here for for some time RSI also here rejected safety threshold so that would be key but if it takes out the uh spike up there at 101 182.
Expect a push up to around 103. Gold still under pressure. Didn't bounce really. Uh 3,2002 was the low. 3,200 is is is is a more psychological level. We have support here at 3,167 and the rising trend line. And especially the 55 moving average, you can see they they are more or less aligned all the way up here.
Uh so we could still see a push down to uh maybe spike down here. Uh if we close below 3,200, well then we have established a bearish uh trend. So that'll be key to watch here uh the next few days. Uh silver not really doing much just dancing still in this range here between 31 and 65 and 3370. Copper also uh between 450 and 480.
uh that should be observed. Still negative sentiment on the RSI indicating to the downside we are below the 55 moving average but the uh 100 coming up there 200 coming up giving some support. So expect to be rangebound in this area here for quite some time. WTI keeps uh pushing higher now above the um 786 retracement for a second day in a row.
This time it stayed above. So there's potential up to the resistance and the previous peaks here around uh 6487 6522. There is some strong resistance there. Also with the 55 moving average coming down and look at this we still have the RSI uh in the negative sentiment. Didn't close above a 60 threshold.
It needs to do that for really establishing a bullish and confirming a bullish trend. Uh Brent uh at the 786 retracement here at 66 or 48 also uh failing to close above 60 threshold for now and it needs to get above 65 sorry 6865 to confirm a bullish turn. If it does that actually then we have a double bottom that could be uh of interest and uh with a potential higher.
I remove this one there. Uh the um European TTF gas uh still struggling to get above uh the um uh 30 3585 resistance here. Uh tried several times then being knocked down every time. So if it starts sliding back and I actually think that if we just add a trend line there, if it takes out uh 34 to the downside, then I think downside will resume uh and with lower levels uh below the previous lows here towards 30.
And uh finally, US Nadas Henry Hop here. Um yeah, it got knocked down by uh the 55 several times. Now we're back below the 100 moving average and could slide lower uh back to the three uh and a quarter level here. Uh if it takes out the uh 384 spike up there, well then there's a potential to uh the plus 4 region.
Moving on to yields and the US 10ear treasury yield uh dancing around the 786 retracement here at the 445 446. Um we are in a bullish trend. Positive sentiment uh likely to test at least the 455 resistance there but could push all the way up to the 465. So um bullish trend there. Um and it will only be demolished if or maybe put back in a little bit on the back burner or in neutral if we get back to 440.
Uh but you will see 55 moving average coming up to 21 also. So there is some support there uh for higher yields. The 2-year um is uh was above 4% and now sliding back a little bit. Let's remove this one. Uh but a strong bearish indeed. And there is potential up to 415 uh if RSI closes above 40 uh or 60 threshold.
Uh moving on to the uh European yields, we have the um the uh Euro 10-year uh pushing towards 271 at this peak there. Uh I think it will be rejected if it gets up there and then I will set back a little bit. But if it closes above, well then there's potential up to around 280 and the UK 10. Well, currently above the 618 retracement and I think there's potential up to the 786 at 472 and then I think we will see a bit of a correction maybe already now but uh there is still potential up there.
Bitcoin uh rangebound between 100,000 and a little bit as we can see here it's the 382 retracement a little bit the spike down there at uh 100,700 and the uh spike up there at 10578. Uh that's the range it needs to take out for direction. Uh I still believe it will be to the upside. Uh but it could be to the downside.
We got a correction just below uh 100,000 to 98,000 level. Um but we are in a bullish trend and there is potential higher. Ethereum also pausing a little bit here. Uh still potential up to uh just around 2200 possibly up to 3,000 again. Uh but if it slides back and takes out uh 2,400, well then we could see a setback to around 2100.
All right, that's all for today. Uh have a nice day and talk to you again later.
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