저자: Kris · 외국인
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나스닥·반도체·S&P500 강세 흐름 속 엔비디아 조정 종료 신호와 150달러 상승 가능성을 제시. 유럽 증시 긍정, 금·은 상단 돌파 및 추가 상승 가능성, 원자재 중 WTI 우호적이나 저항 존재. 환율은 달러 반등 가능성, 유로/엔·파운드/엔 등 조정 후 상승 전망. 미 10년물 금리는 430~445 범위 박스권과 약세 우위 판단.
다듬은 글
good morning and welcome to Kris corner with the daily technical update it is the 4th of July so uh us markets are closed today so it will be a fairly quiet day and it was also a half day yesterday so we'll have to wait until tomorrow Friday uh for some Market action but we did get some action uh last night in us we can see here NVA uh pushed High fire and the rest of the uh most of the semiconductors followed so this correction seems to be over of course the top and reversal pattern in the form of bars Eng golfing has not yet been canceled it needs to take it out by uh moving above or close above 140 spot 76 but I think it will will we will see that scenario play out here the next uh within in the next week or so there's no Divergence on the RSI RSI is still in a positive sentiment so I think we'll see it pushing higher in the coming weeks and towards 150 uh however if it does uh break below and close below uh 118 well then the um correction picture correction scenario is still uh back in uh back in in in in in play but I don't expect that but let's see uh what will happen if we're just very quickly looking at the semiconductor inexs here is the um ETF or also pushing higher it did hold on to the uh support at 242 and a half I tested a couple of times but I think we P higher here in the coming weeks S&P 500 was also lifted by that and a few other things uh apple and so on Tesla was also very strong again yesterday and we are pushing higher towards uh 5600 I believe here in the coming uh weeks uh there's a little bit Divergence here on the RSI uh but uh the dur still out since the uh the uptrend is is is still not uh is still in in in motion and NASDAQ of course also pushed higher um as you can see Divergence building up this RSI is not really following uh with it but we reached 1382 projection at 7,170 and I think we will push towards two uh 20,500 here in the in the in the coming uh days in the European market some some positive winds seems to be blowing in here we closed above 4949 on the Euro stock 50 yesterday uh testing the 55 moving average at close above 5,000 well then I expect uh that I would say we are we are in in a bullish Trend and RSI is likely to close above 60 that will be key for further upside potential but there is some strong overhead resist resistance here around the 5,100 level as you can see uh Dax also pushing higher uh 18,500 is the key level I wanted to close it back above the cloud and I would like to see RSI closing back above 60 for for for Dax to uh be considered in bullish uh Trend but you can see it actually built a slight uptrend here uh however fragile it is but the 100 moving average yeah it actually gave quite a bit of so support to it we have uh the um the ax mdam index also pushing hard this morning prob due to asml B semiconductors and maybe ASM um that is fairly positive today uh we stayed above 918 so I think we'll see at the um the ax pushing higher it got back above 60 threshold despite having Divergence I think we will see it pushing higher in in coming days uh the uh CAC 40 that for uh third time managed to stay above a 74 64 77 25 is the key resistant a close above that well then there's potential up to 7,900 and the Swiss market uh well still range bound uh despite testing it here a couple days ago we still range bound between 11955 and 12,1 182 that is the the the range to uh to break and we still have this to reversal pattern in place but it could be canceled moving on to the FX market and your dollar that had a strong day yesterday um or a weak dollar yesterday uh testing that was considered the minor resistance at 10816 and 10815 here uh still below the cloud didn't close below and RSI is still in a negative sentiment didn't close above 60 if we can get it back above to close above that level here well then I think we will see EUR dollar pushing higher but there's also some resistance at 108 15 uh but that will be key here the next couple of days or will it actually slide back what we can see is that the moving averages of 255 they're slightly Rising giving a little bit of support and again 10665 is the key key support um EUR Sterling rejected at 85 seems to be resuming downtrend if we get the RSI back below 40 well then it will definitely uh um most definitely uh resume downtrend it is currently below it a short-term Rising trend line so it seems like we will see a EUR Sterling uh sliding lower in the coming days and I think it's today their selection day uh over there so uh but it it it seems to be a given with the landslide Victory to labor um cable went through a resistance at 127 and 127 740 U RSI is in a positive sentiment but it will be further confirmed if it moves up back over 60 uh with the potential up to 12850 maybe even 129 but it could struggle a little bit however as you can see we have the 55 moving average Crossing now over the 200 uh sorry the 100 moving average or very close to and we also have the 200 pointing higher so I think we'll see cable pushing higher in in coming days and weeks the Y here seems very stretched at the moment the uptrends has been very strong um this Rising trend line here it's very tight very seep so it's not that strong at all um I think I think as we can see here now it's being brok I think we will see a correction coming in here over the next couple of days but at the uptrend it will be intact until we break below a 158 65 level uh at least uh shortterm and uh we could push higher after a a correction but I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction it's really hard when you have these when it's just taking higher and higher and higher without many Corrections where should you put your stuff so I would be very CAU of being long at the moment uh I will also be very cautious at just going short now because you can easily be stopped out well then at least you should use the uh the uh the peak uh price as um as you stop and say okay if it takes after then we continuing uh Euro Yen pushing higher also almost reached 1382 projection at 174 UH 60 but reached 200 100% of this uh projection uh from from from that correction there uh so I also think we will have a little bit of a correction at the RSI being rejected at previous Peak uh just below that and I think we will see also a correction low how big it will be it's of course uh uh I needed to reversal in place to kind of calculate that but 172 around that level uh is not unlikely also again also quite stets uh despite having a great day yesterday could still push up to the 1764 projection uh just below 109 and there's no Divergence on the RN so I think a correction is is mely just a correction before before pushing uh towards at the um 110 level um as we talked about uh for quite some time now there's no strong resistance until around 214 on Sterling Yen however it is also quite stressed but there's no Divergence on the other side so I think we will get there eventually uh but it will take a little bit of time we we need a bit of correction for for to get more energy higher and this lower Rising trend line here could be uh tested the um dollar a can a dollar is finally on the move and seems to taking out the uh 67 15 minor resistance spiked above yesterday if it can really break it well then we are looking at levels around 68 6870 there's no uh resistance on and then and we are in a positive sentiment um no Divergence so we should see a move towards that level the dollar Canada is still in this big range here so i' skip that and we can talk about that tomorrow and we have um EUR Swiss uh also pushing higher almost recing 618 retracement at 9763 uh could have a little bit of setup back we currently have the RSI around the 60 threshold that would be key will it close back above or will it be rejected here uh during the day today so that that would be if it does close about well then there's a further upside potential for uh Euro Swiss otherwise we will have a little bit of correction uh lower uh and let me just remove that there we have a little bit of correction lower before the to push uh higher dollar Swiss above uh 9890 resistance but it's being uh being rejected here at the 55 moving average and the Cloud area and the 60 threshold on the RSI so that's really strugling a little bit uh it really needs to get back above the cloud and uh in the region around 914 or really establishing an up Trend I mean we we we are in in in in a slight but fragile up trend Trend and the moment we could see a little bit of a set back finally on the dollar Index well uh it didn't get up to the 106 30 level and now we are back below the 55 moving MX and I think we could slide lower we have some support at 10426 and the key support 10368 on uh gold and I sent out an analysis yesterday on um precious metals and some Industrial Metals gold has broken above and closed above its upper falling trend line but it needs to close above the uh uh the minor resistance here or resistance here at 2369 let me just give it a little bit of air right there um so that is the key level to look out for um if it takes out that I think we will also have the RSI back above 60 threshold um it's still in a positive sentiment and it will further conf upside potential if we take out if it closes above 60 and then we could see a push towards 2415 a 2450 maybe uh even higher and maybe new all-time highs uh silver that started the show yesterday also above its uh upper falling trend line uh RSI in a positive sentiment no Divergence and it has broken above its falling trend line and uh further confirmation for uptrend in uh silver will be if it closes is a b of 60 fres will which I think it will it will do uh 30s but 85 is the uh resistance to take out just below the 618 retracement at 31 if it slides back in in below the um the falling trend line that that also counts for for gold well then then this this this downtrend could uh resume but still strong support around 2865 uh Platinum still it's the 1,5 key resistance and I think it will be tested here later today uh it needs to close above for upside potential uh cppa that also turned around and also mentioned my report yesterday or analysis yesterday 459 a close above that well then we are looking at 487 48 8 again on the energy side not really wants to say we have uh WTI I think we will set back a little bit uh but we are in a bullish trade but it needs to take out 8 84 64 for further upside potential Brin crude oil is lacking WTI quite a bit but we about the cloud we are in positive sentiment so could push higher but it is it is not that convincing very strong so resistance here up around 89 30 level and finally US Treasury yield that got rejected at 448 resistance now just moving around the six uh sorry the 100 and the 200 moving aage and I think we will see that range uh between 430 4:45 uh here in the uh the coming days we're still in a negative sentiment thei so we could slide uh lower that's all for today have a nice day and uh if there are any Americans listening um happy 4th of July
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