저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
라케시 준준왈라는 인도 증시가 2013년 8월 저점(약 4,800~5,200)에서 상승해 Nifty 약 11,000~11,300까지 오른 뒤 현재는 건전한 조정 국면이라고 본다. 그는 이번 조정이 강세장의 끝이 아니며, GDP 대비 기업이익 수준이 매우 낮고 자본투자 사이클이 막 시작됐다고 주장한다. 2002~2003년 투자/GDP 약 27%, 저축률 28~29%에서 2008년 각각 37~38%로 올라간 점을 근거로 든다. 그는 내년(2018)은 10,000~11,000 범위의 박스권 횡보(조정)가 나와도 괜찮다고 본다. 2017년은 이례적 상승 해였고 2018년은 통합 국면이 유력하다고 말한다. 정치 측면에서는 2019년 총선을 앞두고 이른 예측은 어렵다면서도, 모디 총리가 가장 강한 지도자이며 차기 정부도 BJP가 이끌 가능성이 높다고 본다. 야당에는 신뢰할 만한 총리 후보가 없다고 평가한다. 수급 측면에서는 외국인 자금 유출(신흥국 ETF에서 약 35억 달러 유출)에도 불구하고 국내 자금 유입이 더 클 것이라 본다. 2017년 국내기관 순매수 약 8,495크로어에서 2018년 들어 약 58,000크로어로 증가했다고 언급했다. 거시 지표는 유가(브렌트 약 74달러, 인도 바스켓 70달러 전후)와 루피화(75~76까지 약세는 아닐 것)를 근거로 양호하다고 본다. 외환보유액 약 4,000억 달러와 낮은 국가 부채 수준을 강점으로 꼽는다. 중소형주는 종목별로 나눠 봐야 하며, 일부는 여전히 터무니없이 고평가돼 있어 신중한 매수를 권한다. 출연자 전망: 시장 전반은 조정 후 상승 재개(중장기 강세), 단기적으로는 박스권 횡보 예상.
다듬은 글
uh what excites Rakesh junjala today and this takes me back to uh some comments that you made in February I think it was on the sidelines of a investor conference that uh that you were attending and you said that uh today the Dilemma in the market is that technically the market is not prepared to go down uh we've got the highest PES in history and we're at the lowest level of profits to GDP so uh but despite that you said that you will continue to put your money into Equity so what excites Rakesh today literally what excites me are three things Marcus girls and and liquor right apart from I'll focus on the first well I don't mind focusing on anything but I'll District to the first one what I feel personally is that see markets have had a tremendous rise I think we bottomed in August 2013 around 5200 or 4,800 and you had the Nifty go to about 11,000 11,300 and we are now correcting and if you look at the long rise that we have had it's a very very I would say it's a very poor correction right and I for one believe that you know bull markets cannot end at this level of GDP to profits this level of profits to GDP also you are coming I think the capital investment cycle is just started right in in 2003 2002 investment to GDP was about 27% savings were about 28 29% by 2008 both were about 37 38% so you have a level where profits to GDP is percentage of profit GDP is at one of the lowest levels the capital cycle investment cycle is just starting I think you have have start the flow of local money into markets I think it's just the beginning trer and I don't think this flow is going to stop the index may have lost maybe 10% or 7 8% but there has been tremendous correction in the midcaps right I don't think that political uncertainty is going to let this markets go down beyond the point also the effects of the IBC the GST the surface the you know aim to make toilets the junun scheme opening of bank account digitalization of the economy it's all a process and I think with every passing day the benefits of these things to the Indian economy will go you know several things that so I personally feel that we are in a correction the correction go see we had a rise for nearly four five 4 years right if the market remains in a range of 10,000 to 11,000 for the next one year I mean I would feel happy but then it is Market has to make and lay a ground for the nextend r okay so you saying that 2017 was a year of extraordinary gains and 2018 is likely to be a year of consolidation absolutely yeah so that's that's your expectation at this point in time several things that you uh spoke of Rakesh let me pick up on each one of those individually and let me start by asking you about politics because you said political uncertainty is only going to weigh so much and not further as far as the market sentiment is concerned what is the mood in the market with respect to what is happening on the politics front see I don't know what's the mood in the market I know what I feel I I personally feel it is too early to predict an election which is going to take place 11 months hence right and see it's in the history of all democracies bipoles by and large always go against the ruling party so I think too much is being made of the fact that the BJP has lost the bipes the fact remains that Mr Modi is the most staring leader this country has today and I think in a range of 1 to 10 if he is nine the second person is three so you will fight this Central election on the basis of electable prime minister I don't think the Congress all the opposition has got a credible has got a credible leader as a prime minister having said that the fact is that the BJP did extremely well in the Hindi cow belt to repeat that kind of performance may be difficult but I'm pretty sure myself in all my calculations that the next government is going to be a BJP government it's not going to be a kit government and all these kiter people see see how they fight in Karnataka see to come together to share power without the actual you know actual sharing of power is easy so IA one predict that you know we going to have a next BJP government despite what people feel second thing is that see India is not dependent on any single political party India grows because of India right you know in in 2004 the index was 6,400 the BJP lost it was 4600 and then went to 25,000 in 2009 when the Congress got 2 and 10 seats you had 20 20% rise in the Nifty for 2 days and for the whole 5 years the market went nowhere so I'm not so much worried about his politics Market always has some reason to you know speculate and it's too early a call and my college we're going to have a BJP go okay uh that's as far as politics is concerned let let me talk to you about flows raakesh and that was something that you alluded to as well and while you're right that domestic institutional invest has continued to put in money into India between 2013 when diis were actually not pumping in money they were net sellers to now about 8,495 cres in 2017 to about 58,000 odd crores in 2018 so far it's a different picture if you look at what's happening as far as FIS is concerned and it's not just with India we're seeing this Emerging Market outflow uh at this point in time with about3 and5 billion doll out of the Emerging Market ETF how is that going to play out I think the local influence is going to be far greater than the foreign influence and remember one thing the major amount of the foreign money is company specific lot of people are invested in HDFC lot of people are invested in HDFC Bank lot of people you know are invested say in uh TCS so I don't think that's got anything to do with India that's got to do with Indian companies so I for one feel that the flow of the local money first of all will be far greater than the foreign outflow and I don't see at the moment India's macros are much better than the other Emerging Markets right and with oil price but they're not as good as they were yeah but I but sh I feel oil price at today's $74 brand Indian basket is at $70 I for one thing is going to come to 6970 at this level IND macros will be very good the rupee the rupe will be at these levels maybe a rupee here or there I don't see the rupee going to 75 and 76 and there no reason why it should we have $400 billion of reserves and we are the most investable country and we have never had you know we have never had any defaults our track record is tremendous as compared to the other Emerging Market World our levels of debt are nothing has compared to China so I think on that on on all that those parameters I think India is doing well and will do well so I'm not afraid I'm not I and you know always remember Mark Fe was the guru of one of the guring markets he always said one thing the locals know best and you believe that the locals will continue to put in mind what are the Alternatives ma'am and see today first see the local money got delayed in India because people lost a lot of money not because markets went not but because of scams and they lost money in 2008 because of the financial crisis worldwide I don't see anything on the horizon now I think with the regulation that the market now has the kind of illegality of the wrong is today one person what it used to be it is there it's not enable totally and I also feel that the locals you know I mean today if you get 15 16 18% return which is better than any other asset the ease with which it can be invested and the cost at which can be invested and don't forget one thing that India by 2025 will save a trillion dollars a year I'm saying 33% of that will come in 9 to 13% of Indian of household savings came to the market so I think both the percent the amount of savings and the percent of saving some into markets both debt and Equity is going to go I have no doubt about it okay I'll pick up on the midcap point that you also raised uh Rakesh what do you expect now we've already seen a fair degree of Correction as far as midcaps are concerned how much more pain do you anticipate there given where we are see ma'am I can't generalize the the midcaps I mean it has to be company specific there are midcaps today I think there is opportunity there are midcaps even today which I think I think are hopelessly overpriced right so there has been a correction we can't paint everything with a br with the same brush but I will be careful in buying it map you would be careful in buying any midcap like I would be careful in buying any stock
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