저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 주가가 장기적으로 크게 오르며 2026년 목표가 4,600달러를 제시한다. 주요 주장: 아크인베스트가 2022년 10월 테슬라 주식을 두 차례 매수했고, 주가 하락 시 저가 매수를 이어가고 있다고 설명한다. 목표가와 근거: 2021년 모델의 3,000달러에서 2026년까지 연장된 모델 기준 목표가는 4,600달러다. 강세 시나리오는 5,800달러, 약세 시나리오는 2,900달러다. 로보택시 근거: 로보택시 사업이 2026년 기업가치의 60%를 차지하며, 2026년 EBITDA의 절반 이상을 기여한다고 본다. 자본효율 근거: 증설당 자본지출이 2017년 개당 8.4만 달러에서 현재 약 7,700달러로 개선되었고, 2026년에는 2~7천 달러로 줄어들 것으로 추정한다. 시장점유율 전망: 전기차 시장 점유율은 현재보다 크게 늘어 5년 내 전체 자동차 시장의 20~25%에 이를 수 있다고 본다. 사업 다각화: 태양광·저장장치 사업과 휴머노이드 로봇 옵티머스가 추가 성장 동력이다. 2030년 매출이 1조 달러를 넘을 수 있다는 주장도 있다. 리스크: 로보택시 출시 시점에 따라 모델 결과가 크게 달라진다. 출시가 지연되면 실제 가치가 낮아질 수 있다. 주가 현황: 발언 시점 주가는 191.30달러였으며, 주가가 고가로 올라 소액 개인 투자자가 살 수 없게 될 것이라는 주장도 함께 나온다.
다듬은 글
did you know that according to Star investor Kathy Wood Tesla stock will eventually be too expensive for most retail investors big firms like Woods Ark invest have been buying Tesla shares during the dip you definitely would want to heed Woods advice so don't miss this one Tesla stock is currently sitting at 191.30 per share this price tag for the leading EV company allows more retail investors to invest however experts believe including Kathy Wood that Tesla stock will soar well into the future Arc invest is an American investment management firm that manages several actively managed exchange traded funds Arc invest focuses solely on disruptive innovation and offers investment solutions to investors seeking long-term growth in the public markets the company also invests in Innovations like self-driving cars and genomics which explains why they are keeping an eye on Tesla as of February 2021 the company had 50 billion dollars in assets under management Arc invest CEO and CIO Kathy Wood is an American investor a star stock picker according to Forbes who is often called the most underrated investor in the game since she is incredibly persuasive in her investment arguments but she's also got the proven results to back up her surprisingly Discerning claims in October alone arkhanvest bought Tesla shares twice once in early October after Tesla announced Q3 production and delivery numbers and once again around mid-october after Tesla's Q3 earnings call in early October wood purchased 132 000 Tesla shares after Tesla reported a Miss in deliveries when Tesla announced its delivery in production numbers through a press release for the second time in October wood bought another 66 190 Tesla shares it appears that wood and her furmark and vest are on a buying spree when the stock experiences a dip this is probably because wood believes that Tesla stock will soar Sky High in the next few years so she is taking the chance to buy more stocks while it is cheap in ark's 2021 open source Tesla Model The Firm outlined its expected value of three thousand dollars per share in 2025.
however they have since updated this due to material changes including autonomous ride hail assumptions and inputs Capital efficiency estimates and the forecast has been pushed forward by one year to 2026. according to Arc Tesla's prospective Robo taxi business line is a key driver by contributing 60 percent of expected value and more than half of expected ebi TDA or earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization in 2026 across the simulation set they expect electric vehicles to constitute 57 percent of the company's Revenue in 2026 although at substantially lower margins than the robo taxi Revenue because of arc's increased conviction in Tesla's ability to achieve full self-driving they have to be updated with how the robo taxi business feeds into to the model although in the past they predicted that Tesla will never be able to launch autonomous ride hailing recent positive Innovations from Tesla made them change their mind and assume its launch in 2026.
for years later than musk expected they also suggest that Tesla will commercialize autonomous ride hail in 2024 however in nine percent of their model cases Tesla does not commercialize Robo taxis within the five-year window if and only if Robo taxi commercializes within the forecast window the modeled Financial results for Tesla are susceptible to the year of launch Arc invest's updated model also increases Tesla's Capital efficiency Tesla's capital expenditure per incremental unit of capacity had improved from eighty four thousand dollars in 2017 when the model 3 was ramping up to around seventy seven hundred dollars in last year's model they estimated that Tesla would spend six to eight thousand dollars per incremental unit of capacity in 2025 given its much better than expected Capital efficiency it may be safe to assume that Tesla will spend two to seven thousand dollars per incremental unit of capacity in 2026.
arc's price target for Tesla is forty six hundred dollars per share in 2026 with the updates in their recent model the bear and bull cases suggest that Tesla could be worth roughly 2 900 and fifty eight hundred dollars per share in 2026. if this happens Tesla stock will be impossible to buy for any average American and will only be affordable to institutional investors institutional investors do not use their own money but rather they invest the money of others on their behalf retail investors on the other hand are investing for themselves often in brokerage or retirement accounts The Arc invest team also pointed out that they expect Tesla's Robo taxi to be a game changer for the company by 2026 if Tesla successfully launches Robo taxis the expected value is the average of all 1 million simulations set simulations are highly sensitive to the year when Tesla finally launched Robo taxis in most of arc's lowest price per share scenarios Tesla launches a vertically integrated human-driven ride hail service but does not launch a robo taxi Network while in other scenarios Tesla does not launch either service while the company has not committed publicly to launching human-driven ride hail Arc detailed previously the Strategic and tactical advantages of doing so importantly human-driven ride hail could become a profitable recurring Revenue stream before Tesla launches a fully autonomous service for cases in which Tesla launches a human-driven ride hail service and solves four fully autonomous driving Arc assumes that its human-driven ride hell cars will transition to the autonomous ride hell network over time if it is unable to launch a robo taxi service within five years Tesla could still launch a human-driven ride hail vehicle while trying to solve for full autonomy on the other hand in arc's many higher price per share scenario shows Tesla launches a robo taxi Network in the next two to three years in a published article arkhinvest stated that although tuned to our expectation for 2026 we believe our Tesla Model is methodologically conservative we assume the Tesla stock will trade like a mature company rather than a high growth one in 2026.
wood has always been known as a Tesla bull investment companies including Arc invest carefully considered the company's stocks or bonds before investing in them the economy and stock market are put into consideration as well Tesla stock is one that analysts and investors keep their eye on although Tesla stocks have constantly been fluctuating like wood investors are still clamoring to buy Tesla stock since they are optimistic about the company's future potential many believe the Tesla is bound to do great things in the future in light of that numerous investors see massive potential in Tesla especially since the company was the first to successfully introduce electric vehicles in the market Arkansas invest believes Tesla will continue to lead the electric vehicle Market especially if Tesla is the first to be successful in autonomous driving in the United States Kathy Wood said we're beginning to believe that not only will Tesla take the biggest share of the electric vehicle Market we also believe that it could take 20 to 25 percent share of the total auto market in five years that's by 2026.
Tesla's manufacturing process is also said to be the Envy of its largest competitors including Volkswagen Group which says Tesla is The Benchmark in that department a more efficient production process means lower cost and more profit and Tesla currently maintains the highest Automotive gross profit margin of any other car maker it came in at 27.9 percent in the recent third quarter of 2022.
moreover Tesla is also a leader in self-driving software technology and by some estimates that market could be worth over 2.1 trillion by 2030. with the company's fully autonomous Robo taxi slated for release in 2024 or it will potentially reclaim the pole position on that opportunity this is a technology that other car manufacturers could take far longer to crack because it requires years worth of real-world data then there are Tesla's other businesses like residential solar panel generation and storage the demand for which is so high that the company is struggling to keep up and at this year's Tesla's AI day the company revealed a new humanoid robot called Optimus that could change the workforce forever there's also the robo taxi business which may well possibly change Mobility forever the expectation is that Tesla's model won't require any human intervention whatsoever so it could revolutionize the way we move around and upend the logistics business Wall Street analysts are predicting Tesla will generate about 120 billion dollars in sales during 2023 and experts believe that the EV company will likely be producing vehicles at a run rate of 2 million per year so if that production figure Rises tenfold Tesla's annual revenue could exceed one trillion dollars by 2030 assuming vehicle prices remain consistent with today's levels if this happens Tesla stock will inevitably soar high enough that most retail investors will no longer be able to afford to buy a share of the leading EV company Tesla stock is one of the top Arc invest stocks with a whopping 10.8 percent weighting in the arc ETF portfolio as of late October 2022 updates after this
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