저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아가 2분기 실적을 사전 발표하며 매출(약 67억 달러 예상, 기존 가이던스 81억 달러 대비 하향)과 매출총이익률(65.1%→43.7%)이 크게 부진했다고 분석. 게이밍 매출 급감(전분기 대비 -44%, 전년비 -33%)이 핵심 원인이며 데이터센터는 상대적으로 버팀. 3분기 매출 추정치와 밸류에이션 부담으로 추가 하락 가능성을 제기. 기술적으로는 하락 추세가 확인돼 150~160달러 구간 재진입 전에는 접근을 피하고, 이익 실현을 권고.
다듬은 글
we were not expecting earnings from nvidia for another two weeks but the company pre-announced their q2 earnings before the belt today and they are incredibly weak we'll come over here and look at the different business segments that nvidia operates under and see how not only quarter of a quarter but year over year we're starting to see weakness we'll see the overall results that nvidia announced we'll compare that to some of the results that we had in the past we have to look at the analyst estimates for the upcoming quarters we'll discuss if it's likely that these earnings estimates will likely come in as well and then we'll look at this from a technical perspective as you can imagine when the stock is going down eight percent during the regular trade it creates a different technical setup in the shorter term i knew i was going to get on here and do earnings videos i sure as heck didn't think we're going to cover nvidia this morning look over the last year down 15 that includes a drop of over 15 per share or about 8 during the regular trade as this stock is reeling after pre-announcing their weak q2 numbers which are quite frankly intel like both on the shock and also the ah of the declines that we're seeing over in nvidia now several months ago during q1 like most companies we got q2 outlook or q2 guidance from nvidia at the time we're talking about just a couple of months ago revenue for nvidia in the most recent quarter that they just pre-announced today the company was expecting about 8.1 billion dollars plus or minus about 2 percent on that we got news from nvidia today that revenue is actually expected to come closer to 6.7 billion dollars and not the 8.1 billion guidance that nvidia gave us just a couple of months ago now when we come over here to wall street estimates it lines up with what wall street was expecting as well essentially wall street settled on that 8.1 billion dollars worth of revenue for nvidia on the high end out of 35 analysts the high end was 8.2 billion dollars the low end was 7.88 billion dollars and i'll remind you that nvidia is saying that they're going to do 6.7 billion dollars that is intel like disappointment on that revenue side but it folks it gets worse our gross margins over in nvidia were expected just a couple of months ago to come in in the q2 at 65.1 percent on a gap basis the company is now expecting those margins to come in at just 43.7 as demand and pricing on those gaming chips which were just once flying off the shelves for double or triple retail to crypto miners and certainly gamers as well obviously you've had a softening of demand for crypto mining and gaming almost everybody has the setup that they want and you're seeing pricing and demand start to walk back that is impacting the revenue side and it is going to impact the gross margin and the profitability side as well operating expenses to nvidia's credit to a certain degree i guess they're gonna come in line 2.46 billion dollars was expected will come just underneath that at 2.42 billion dollars they'll recognize some other expenses as well coming in line their tax rate obviously when your earnings shrivel up and your revenues shrivel up well your gap tax rate probably going to come down as well now here's the even more shocking thing our gaming revenue is supposed to come in at 2.04 billion dollars quarter over quarter that is down 44 year-over-year down 33 i'll show that to you so in the upcoming quarter the q2 which they'll fully announce still in a couple of weeks on august 24th we'll also get a conference call from nvidia on that day as well they just gave us kind of a high level pre-announcing of these numbers the gaming revenue expected to come at 2.04 billion dollars folks last quarter we were at 3.6 billion dollars last year on a quarterly basis we were at three billion dollars so a dramatic i mean we're talking about a dramatic falloff in that business now fortunately for investors data center looks to be holding up a little bit q2 revenue expected to be about 3.81 billion dollars last quarter on the data center we did right about from a rounding perspective about 3.8 billion dollars year over year it'll be a 2.3 billion dollar comp so we'll be up 61 year over year but sequentially quarter over quarter we're starting to pump the brakes a little bit up just one percent everything else with nvidia is essentially a rounding error from a revenue perspective yes this is about 800 million dollars but it is not going to move the needle enough to make up for our gaming declines at 2 billion down 44 quarter over quarter i can't emphasize how big of a drop off that is in terms of demand and year over year is well down 33 that is why this stock is reacting negatively because while more recently data center has kind of overtaken gaming to a certain degree in terms of revenue they were very very close and in fact for the longest time gaming revenue over at nvidia was the leading revenue generator and now it has been cut by nearly 50 quarter of a quarter and 30 year over year that is absolutely disastrous for nvidia that is basically the summary of the numbers that nvidia handed out they basically compared q2 results to the q2 outlook that was given they also gave us the summary of the different business units now what you have to expect in the coming days ahead is a lot of analyst revisions on these earnings estimates we see for q3 which is for the quarter that we're in now that will end for nvidia in october we were expecting revenues to come in at about 8.36 billion dollars i think when we look at the pre-announced numbers does anybody really believe that gaming is gonna be able to re-accelerate from a two billion dollar business back up to the mid to low three billion dollar run rate that we were on over the last couple of quarters over at nvidia i think not so this 8.36 billion dollar worth of revenue expected in q3 i think that's going to come down that was just 17 growth so even if nvidia hit their q3 target that analysts had set that was still oh i say only going to be 17 growth but look you've got a 35 forward pe on this one that is gonna come down you still have a 475 billion 475 billion dollar market cap on this company that is probably going to have to come down as well as full year revenue full year profits are all going to have to be walked in you have the q4 quarter which ends in january for nvidia they were expecting 8.68 billion dollars that was 13 growth we were expected to slow down in q1 to a single digit grower just six percent revenue growth again this was before the announcement that we're going to get today nvidia that has a premium very premium valuation certainly to the rest of the market but certainly when you compare it to like an intel and some of these beaten down chip makers look this is an astronomical valuation for this company that absolutely absolutely is going to have to come in as i don't think anybody even the most bullish people of nvidia and the chip makers in general are not going to see this gaming revenue re-accelerate sure you could have a re-acceleration of crypto prices and we've certainly seen a stabilization there as well that certainly will help this gaming out because you're using these gaming products that nvidia makes in this gaming segment but a lot of that is going to crypto mining as well some of that demand might come back but this actual people actually using these for gaming and video games well it appears that that market is saturated and they've had enough so it brings into question after q2 of 2024 this company was expected to re-accelerate to a 20 percent grower and then certainly on this earnings side we were expected outside of a couple of quarters to be a mid-20s grower on that eps side certainly would have made sense when you look at this forward price to earnings the fact that wall street was expecting pretty aggressive growth on that profit side that is not going to happen anymore in fact we're essentially rewinding time over nvidia they had 6.5 billion dollars worth of revenue in q2 of 2022 and now the company is expected to be there again in their fiscal year 2023 essentially a year later coming in essentially flat year over year on that revenue side that spells disaster for this stock i'm seeing right now we are recording this during the regular trade right now nvidia's down about nine percent now that does take it back to a stock price that we had back basically like a week or two ago so let's not get too over dramatic we were literally on the 170 price handle on nvidia like on july 27th which again is about a week ago now shorter term micro trend we were in this rapid uptrend that is obviously completely broken down we've theorized here on our friday show where we analyze nvidia every week from a techno perspective that this one might have just been starting a newer downtrend i thought maybe we kind of broken out of that it appears that this is confirmed we are still in this downtrend i would not i repeat i would not touch nvidia with a 10 foot pole until it pulls back into our sideways consolidation box that we've had marked out with nvidia for the longest time down here this green box that you're seeing with price action between 115 up to 160.
this is the area where there's some clear demand for nvidia shares in the shorter term it's really bounced off these kind of 150 areas me personally when i look at this now from a fundamental perspective and i'm combining it with what i'm seeing from a technical perspective i don't think i would be that eager to jump in the minute it gets into this zone and i think it's only a matter of days before nvidia starts trading south of 160 dollars per share again i think you've got high likelihood to retest the lows that we made again just last month in july on this stock back here at about 140 there should be some demand and this stock should reach some support when it gets into this 150 140 that could set up again a shorter term trade where you get supply of sellers drying up at this level and this thing pops back to the upside i would absolutely take profits in a stock like this you still have a premium you still have a premium valuation you're going to have earnings estimates and revenue estimates for the upcoming several quarters at nvidia have to come in big time so when you look at this price to earnings it's only going to get up when you look at the price the sales multiple it's only going to get higher and at the same time your year over year growth is going to start to look much much closer to an intel and to other stocks in this sector and the stock market that don't have a high growth rate when companies don't have high revenue growth and high earnings growth well look you just simply should not pay a premium for those earnings this looks like to me we have a very large shift in demand for those gaming chips down from over 3.6 billion dollars last quarter down to two billion dollar estimate for the upcoming quarter i don't personally think that will re-accelerate and so nvidia is going to be in the penalty box for the time being there's probably some shorter term pops and drops this stock will make from a technical perspective if you decide to play those me personally i would take profits and lock in my gains and we wait for more clarity on nvidia's earnings going forward before we buy and hold this one for the long term again hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video be back again with more today good luck with your investments
Comments 0