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팔란티어 2분기 실적은 매출 4.73억달러(전년비 25.9%)로 컨센서스를 소폭 상회했으나, 3분기 가이던스(4.74~4.75억달러)가 컨센서스(약 5.05억)에 못 미쳐 주가가 약 12.5% 하락. 영업손실은 4,180만달러로 전년(1.46억달러 손실)보다 개선. 주식보상 비용 감소에도 희석 효과는 지속. 기술적으로 10달러 지지선 여부가 핵심이며, 하락 추세 속 단기 반등 가능성을 언급하나 추가 하락 위험을 강조. 투기적 종목으로 매우 작은 비중만 권고.
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if you followed this channel for any length of time you've known i've always been a touch bearish on palantir to say the least and if you follow that lead you've probably saved yourself a little bit of money as this stock of the last year is down over 55 year-to-date down nearly 46 and look since this stock was made publicly available it is up just 5.4 over the last two years but finally has my tune changed on palantir after we got q2 results which we'll go into in depth on today's show take a look at the revenues the progression of stock based compensation expenses the progression of potential profits over at this company is it enough to finally buy into this stock and as we see a technical turnaround as well is all of it adding up to buying pollen tier stock today we'll talk about that and more on today's show palantir technologies ticker symbol p-l-t-r on today's video we have to discuss the fact that this company still has a massive 23 billion dollar valuation despite being down over 45 date now we did get q2 earnings before the bell today we'll get into them look at the revenues the profits we have to discuss q3 guidance as well we also got full year guidance from palantir so we essentially got guidance for q3 and q4 i'll show you how that math plays out for the upcoming earnings estimates which at the current time wall street was expecting 30 growth for q3 and nearly 30 growth for q4 over at palantir is this company going to meet those expectations or come underneath them come over and look at the revenue and then yes we have to look at this from a technical perspective i love what i'm seeing from a technical perspective over there we'll talk about more of that towards the end of the program now revenue in the most recent quarter came in at 473 million dollars that was up 25.9 year over year and that did beat expectations by nearly 1.29 million dollars expectations for the quarter was closer to 471 so this 473 definitely meeting the mark if not exceeding it to a certain degree over at paluntir now that is not what is sending this stock during the regular trade we are recording this as regular trade is going on at the current time pound tier down 12 and a half percent what is sending this stock down is the fact that we got q3 and essentially q4 guidance as well over at palantir now we'll focus on q3 initially guidance is now 474 to 475 million dollars consensus estimate they say here was close to 505.
i'm seeing over here it was maybe even potentially higher than that at 508 million dollars so that is a problem when you're gonna put up a q2 of 473 and you're gonna grow just two million dollars on the high end to 475 and you've got a massive price to earnings ratio price to sales on this company that is certainly going to have some investors head for the hills also on top of that of just eight analysts covering this company which quite frankly there's more people talking about this stock on a daily basis here on youtube than analysts covering the stock that should always be a clue that a stock maybe is overhyped but i digress the fact that those analysts on the low end for q3 revenue estimates over palantir was at 488 million dollars and this company on the high end is expected to do 475 million dollars that's a big problem i'll also show you though they also gave us guidance for the full year 2022 so you essentially got q3 guidance but if you back into a q4 number which i'll show you what it's going to be here in a moment you essentially got two quarters of guidance over at palantir now revenue is expected to be between 1.9 billion up to about 1.902 billion dollars consensus estimates for the full year was much closer to 1.98 billion dollars maybe even nearly 2 billion on that revenue side now i'm going to show you this math and how it works out for the full year palantir just told you they're going to do a shade over 1.9 billion dollars worth of revenue in the most recent year we already know that this company and i'll show it to you in the financial segment here in a moment this company in q1 and q2 of this year already put up 919 million dollars worth of revenue they gave us q3 guidance of about 475 million on the high end the estimate was closer to 508 million dollars so if you take these numbers of q1 and q2 of 919 million you add it to the guidance that we got for q3 you minus that off of our full year projected revenue you essentially also got q4 revenue estimate over at palantir at 507 million some of you might be wondering what was wall street expecting a number closer to 550 million so that is actually quite a drop in terms of the expectations i'll repeat in q3 we're expecting over at palantir according to palantir 475 million dollars worth of revenue and wall street was expecting closer to 5.08 we also know now for the full year we're probably going to do about 507 million dollars maybe upwards of 508 maybe 510 million in q4 over at palun tier the expectations was much closer to 560 in fact on the low end the low end estimate was 534 million dollars that is a recipe when you already have a premium multiple again despite the stock being down 45 you've got a pe in the stratosphere and you've got about a 10 times price to sales forward multiple on this one that is a richly valued stock no matter which way you look at it so yeah your stock's gonna be down 12.5 but things might get a little better when you start diving into the numbers over at pound tier so there certainly is hope here now for the last three months here's that 473 million dollars worth of revenue that we talked about that was 25 nearly 26 year-over-year growth when last year on a quarterly basis you had 375 million worth of revenue now the reason why this stock is fairly hyped up and i think that is a fair assessment is the fact that you have massive gross margins over at this company and they still hold true today so off of 473 million dollars worth of revenue you had just 102 million dollars worth of cost that means your gross profit was over 370 million dollars when you have that much gross profit left over when you take off your cost you have a lot of money to play with when it comes to operating expenses and when it comes to playing and spending that volunteer does a wonderful job at that look at your sales and marketing there is some sign of hope here look your sales went up nearly 26 year over year your sales and marketing budget barely moved it went from 162 up to just 168 nearly 169 million dollars quite frankly probably would have expected a little higher jump than that look at your research and development it went from 110 million last year down to 88 million i'm liking what i'm seeing here here's your general administrative it went from 157 down to 155.
now we'll talk about some of the things that are driving this decline in these expenses here in a moment but let's finish this off our total operating expenses for palantir in the most recent quarter came in at 412 million dollars so we take our 473 million dollars worth of revenue we minus off 102 million dollars worth of cost we get a gross profit of 370.
now we have to minus offer operating expenses selling marketing general administrative and research and development those costs came in at 412. so we take our 370 minus off our 412 million dollars worth of operating expenses we get a loss from operations at 41.8 million dollars now some of you will do a full stop right there and say hey we've got a 10 x forward price to sales multiple we've got essentially an infinity type pe on this stock as well since they don't really generate any real profits some of you might full stop on that type of investment and move on but some of you that are looking at it from a trend basis look we've gotten a lot better year over year you went from 146 million loss of just 375 million last year now off of this 473 million you lost just 41 million dollars certainly yes the upcoming quarters don't look strong from a revenue growth perspective over and above the estimates but if these costs are going to flatten out especially our operating expenses if those will flatten out in the 400 million dollar range which over the last year that's looks like where palantir is starting to flatten out well yeah when you get up into maybe potentially 507 million dollars you're probably going to be approaching a break even business at that point and then again from the bullish scenario if you're one of these people that really believe the hype over at palantir and you think this company is going to grow kind of mid to high 20s which is analyst estimates for this company for the coming quarters well look this company can certainly grow into this valuation over time but we have to factor in that we walked back to our q3 guidance we've essentially walked back q4 guidance so we have to question q1 q2 q3 and into the future over at palantir is it going to be a 20 to 30 percent grower which as we know if you're growing at high 20 growth rate you're essentially doubling the business every two and a half to three years and if this company can eventually do it profitably which wall street is expecting to happen at some point well you've got the recipe of a growth stock growing into that valuation we're seeing some minor evidence of that now some of the reasons why you had our sales and marketing costs basically go flat our research development as well you saw a lot of these costs go flat year over year as you notice our total stock based compensation over at palantir went from 232 down to 145 million in the most recent quarter but what we have to factor in is a year ago this stock was over 55 higher so even as you have the total dollar percentage of stock based compensation going down quite a bit year over year the actual dilution likely remains about the same because as the stock price goes down this 145 million dollars worth of it is not necessarily a fair comparison to the 232 you spent last year when the stock was 55 higher you can see evidence of this by the weighted average number of common shares outstanding it went from 1.9 up to about 2 over the last year on a quarterly basis again despite the drop in dollar figure of that stock based compensation still massively dilutive now from a balance sheet perspective when you're able to save money compensating employees using 145 million worth of stock instead of 145 million dollars worth of cash the balance sheet over palantir looks good okay from a liability perspective there's really nothing here from a cash basis things are looking really good so you do want to come down here to cash flows and see how this company is actually burning or in some cases maybe earning this cash now over the last six months we pulled down a net loss of 280 million last year basically comparable you're right at about 260.
so this will be a pretty fair comparison from a cash flow basis now we talked about how stock based compensation last year the stock price was a lot higher so in many ways those stock options worth a lot more so you had 426 million now the stock is down you did 295 million but it's still rather dilutive because obviously you've seen the stock go down now if the stock had gone up 55 and you cut your stock based compensation boy this would be a great thing for shareholders but not the case at the current time over at palantir now from a cash flow basis year over year you went from positive cash flows last year of about 139 million this year positive cash flows of about 97 million dollars when we factor in the upcoming quarters of guidance and really the full year i don't think there's a whole lot of concern for this company burning through a lot of cash things look pretty good purchase of property plant and equipment really accelerated year over year from just 1.4 last year all the way up to 20.7 proceeds from the stock options obviously cooled off over the last year as this company is slightly more mature from a public company perspective now from a technical perspective the longer term trend with this stock is basically flat okay it started trading at about ten dollars per share got really over hyped and is now basically back down to ten dollars per share now the intermediate trend is down and it's down steeply if you drill down to a slightly less intermediate term it's still down but it's not down as much i think we've confirmed that this stock is absolutely absolutely 100 still locked in some kind of downtrend but if you start looking at this much more from the shorter term this is starting to play out like several stocks that we're looking at quite frankly a lot of these speculative stocks are setting up in this pattern where they're still very much in a larger downtrend but you are having a shorter term uptrend emerge now interestingly enough we are converging on the 10 share price over at palantir that has been an area where if you do break through this 10 area at palantir i'd be very concerned and i think it'd be a high likelihood you're retesting the lows that you made back in may on this stock in this area probably seven eight dollars per share so i would not buy this stock today without understanding there is a pretty high probability and a high risk that this intermediate and longer term trend continues if that continues i think you're absolutely retesting these lows six seven eight dollars per share on this one now the other side of the argument is if these six to seven eight dollar share price at palantir if that's truly the bottom in the stock this shorter term uptrend that this stock is making and it is a perfect uptrend we are making a series of higher lows in succession higher highs to go along top of that right now we are at the bottom of that range there should be some demand for this stock at about 10 if this technical pattern is playing out this one should re-test over and above the highs that we made just last week over 11.50 per share we should push up into the 12 share price on this one if again the shorter term uptrend stays intact we should absolutely find our footing right here at about 10 and then bounce here in pretty short order that's how i see palantir from a shorter term perspective if you're going to trade this one you absolutely take your profits in this one you also understand that i would have a pretty tight stop loss if you break through this 850 875 level you have a high probability of retesting these lows that would break you out of this shorter term uptrend that you're in the minute you break this trend it's almost assuredly the longer term and intermediate trend take over so when you are trading shorter term trends when they break when they are over you need to get out of that trade that's a good level to set a stop loss and from the bullish case side over at palantir if this is truly the bottom this shorter term trend should turn into an intermediate and then eventually a longer term trend and you should see this stock retest these highs back up there at 14 and eventually maybe 18 per share you still have a massive premium valuation on this one things are starting to look a little bit better from a financial perspective from an operating perspective some of that has to do with the fact that this stops absolutely tanked and that's caused the company to pump the brakes a little bit in terms of its growth drivers and its stock-based compensation only a speculative stock still for me that would be a tiny tiny allocation in today's market but certainly some opportunities to make some money here hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video be back again soon with more good luck with your investments
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