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TSMC(TSM) 2분기 실적 발표 기반 분석. 매출 181.6억달러(전년비 36% 성장), 컨센서스 상회. 3분기 가이던스 상향(198~206억달러). 총자산 1460억달러 중 현금 420억달러로 재무 건전성 강조. 밸류에이션은 과거 대비 부담 완화(PSR 약 7배, PER 15~18배). 장기 상승추세 유지, 81달러 부근 매수 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
like a lot of stocks taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company otherwise known as tsm is down big year to date down over 36 but this is on the heels of announcing their q2 earnings which we'll get into in depth on today's show also talk about the q3 guidance we'll go through all the financials take a look at all the relevant things that you need to know when it comes to tsm stock including valuations and then finally we'll look at this from a technical perspective believe it or not this one's still in a long-term uptrend and i will give you my recommendation if i would buy sell or hold this stock today what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there time to talk about taiwan semi otherwise known as tsm year-to-date down 36 stretch it out for the past year about the same down 33 the stock has been absolutely beaten down but when we get into these financials there's a ton of things i think you're going to get really excited about with this company take a look at their q2 numbers which just crossed this morning revenue came in at 18.1 billion dollars we'll get over to the financials we'll show you them to you this being a taiwanese company some of the financials jumbled up a little bit i'm gonna make the most sense of it for you and show you the most relevant stuff when it comes to this company but look revenue came in at 18.16 billion dollars that was 36 year-over-year growth and they beat expectations by over 580 million dollars they did it on the earnings side as well i think more importantly though we got updated guidance for the q3 so what we're talking about today is the most recent quarter that they just reported which was q2 but they gave us upcoming guidance for q3 which is the quarter we're in the midst of now they're expecting revenue to come between 19.8 billion dollars all the way up to 20.6 folks consensus was closer to about 18 and a half billion they're expecting their gross profits to maintain really high levels and their operating profits as well when we come over here and look at these financials these results are absolutely fantastic so you had in the most recent quarter that 18 billion dollars worth of revenue look quarter over quarter you went from 17.57 up to this 18.6 that was 3.4 growth your 36 growth year over year went from 13 billion up to this 18 billion i think more impressively is the fact that you have these gross margins coming in at a whopping 59 the guidance was between 56 and 58 so they came over that take a look at that from a year-over-year perspective up 9.1 basis points from 50 all the way up to this 59 just absolutely unbelievable same thing for operating margins 49 the expectation set forth for the company was between 45 and 47 folks this isn't a wildly i mean we're talking about a wildly profitable company when we come over here and look at these financials what i've got is a balance sheet here the far left hand column is our most recent quarter that we just reported the far far right column is the united states dollars the rest of these figures are in new taiwan dollars so i'm going to spend the bulk of this video talking about this in united states dollars we start with a balance sheet this company is incredibly healthy from a balance sheet perspective over 42 billion dollars yeah 42 billion dollars in just straight up cash the other thing that i wanted to look at is inventory build as well they've got about 7.3 billion dollars worth of inventory one of the concerns with taiwan semi is maybe that there was a little bit slowing demand from some of the people that they supply to the nvidia's the apples the computer chip makers are maybe seen a little bit slowing demand versus you know kind of that post pandemic boom that we saw with a lot of chip stocks well okay we are building up inventory quarter over quarter and we're seeing it build up year over year but it's not astronomical and sometimes having this inventory on hand if you have less demand destruction based on some of the economic stuff that we're seeing well it might not necessarily be a bad thing but not necessarily the best but overall inventory build over at tmc not as bad as i probably thought it would be the other thing to just broadly think about with this company is property plant and equipment over 75 billion dollars recognized on the balance sheet and you know if you follow our videos we don't typically look at property plant and equipment and really emphasize this but when it comes to tsm obviously you can look in the news and see intel is trying to build chip plants here in the united states tsm in fact is trying to build one in arizona and talking about how much it's costing them to build those things we know as an investor these manufacturing plants that manufacture these chips are extremely expensive number one but also incredibly difficult to build particularly here in the united states so when you analyze this company i think you can look at this 75 billion dollars and say hey if tsm put their company up for sale look there would be a line out the door from intel to nvidia to maybe even apple themselves would be lining up to acquire these assets so you're looking at the total assets on the balance sheet of this company at 146 billion dollars again the vast majority of that is sitting in cash at 42 billion and property and plant and equipment which i think if it you know you win up on the open market like an ebay auction or something like that would get a large large bid for it probably a premium i would guess over and above what you're seeing here sitting on the balance sheet now from a liability perspective you don't got a lot here just 61 billion i say just when you got 146 billion in total assets and just 61 in liabilities folks this company is incredibly i'm talking about incredibly well capitalized from balance sheet perspective i really really really like what i see here now in terms of our results we have that 18.1 billion dollars worth of revenue again that was 36 growth year over year even quarter of a quarter you're growing at about three percent more impressive than that as we talked about these gross margins which in the most recent quarter came in very close to 60 percent 60 percent gross margins so off 18 billion dollars you cleared 10.7 billion dollars to gross profits take a look at the operating expenses research and development just 1.3 billion in the quarter selling general and administrative just 466 million dollars so you take this 10.7 billion dollars with a gross profit and you minus off 1.
and you get income from operations at 8.9 billion dollars folks whoever is running taiwan semi they should hire them and run twitter and square and snowflake and teledoc and paypal and a number of different companies that we look at here on the channel this company is incredibly well run they literally spend just 10 percent of their net revenues operating the business because of 18 billion dollars worth of net revenue they spend just 1.8 billion on expenses and they clear nearly 9 billion almost half of that money flowing down folks this is just fantastic okay flow all the way down into a net income number and you're seeing very similar things after you pay everything i mean you're clearing huge amounts of money when it comes to this company they come down here and give you kind of a six-month view into the company as well 3 coming in and nearly half of that close to 17 billion dollars these are this is just fantastic we don't see this very often from i mean you can count on basically two hands when you see financials like this this is fantastic we come down here to consolidated statement of cash flows for tsm and guess what folks it actually probably gets even better when you look at it from a cash flow perspective so for six months you pull down a net income number of 17.1 billion dollars again we saw that up here when they gave us a six-month view we had 17.1 billion dollars worth of income off of 35 billion worth of revenue we pulled down that 17.1 number we get to add back in things like depreciation which is not insignificant when you have 70 80 billion dollars worth of property plant and equipment out there so when you factor that in the fact that that's a non-cash charge that's something you have to recognize we got 24 billion dollars yeah 24.7 billion dollars worth of positive cash flow again this is over six months over at tsm and guess what we don't spend a lot of it okay yeah we spent 16.7 million dollars over two quarters on property plant and equipment but guess what you got to do that in this business so on your investing activities you burn through about 19.6 billion they're financing a lot of this through kind of shorter term debt in these bonds so they have about 4.5 billion dollars worth of bonds but they are rewarding you as a shareholder paying you in excess of that closer to about five billion dollars in cash dividends so you had 24 billion dollars worth of positive cash flow you burn through about 19.6 in investing activities you are essentially cash flow even from a financing perspective folks you bolted on over 6.
on this company these financials are fantastic over at tsm and what is finally lining up with this company is the valuation is pulling back into an area where it makes a heck of a lot more sense i've got a five year price to sales chart over at tsm this is trailing 12 months this likely does not include the results that we see today but give or take you know a couple fractions of a point and you're basically where you're at with tsm down here trading about seven times sales and we see more historically over the last five years that's where this company more comfortably trades from a valuation perspective we'll certainly see that from a technical perspective here in a moment i've got a price to earnings trailing 12 months again likely not including today's earnings but all things being considered we're trading in about 17 times trailing 12 months earnings again this company was probably wildly overvalued at 20 25 30 40 times sales or earnings in this case we're pulling back into a much more comfortable zone with tsm so when we come over here and look at this from a technical perspective two things that i want to point out for you first of all we're still yes we are still locked in a longer term uptrend with tsm i tried to stretch this back as long as i can i think you could have near an over a 10-year uptrend this stock has actually been it's probably been even longer than that you're probably looking at a 13-14 year trend it's hard to get onto the screen here but you're still in a major uptrend now some of you that bought kind of in the height of the pandemic and the hype of a lot of stocks and kind of the the rush of liquidity into all kinds of markets you might have bought up here a north of a hundred dollars per share well look it happens sometimes you overpay for a stock and you see here there's been many times this stock traded over its longer term uptrend which i'm representing here in this green line you can draw this in any number of different ways but more or less we're in this kind of 10-year uptrend we're still above it so if you buy the stock today at about 81 you're probably overpaying still a little bit based on its longer-term uptrend but as we move back through the decades basically you see here that tsm doesn't touch this green line very often so waiting for it to touch that line first of all that would be incredible discipline if you wanted to do that but in my opinion probably a little bit foolish we're gonna zoom in here on the more recent price action again we talked about how it's sideways i remember doing videos on this stock how it was in this sideways consolidation after that monster run up in here at about 110 100 230 per share when stocks go in this sideways move you like for them to break to the upside well unfortunately for tsm and anybody that bought it up there it actually broke to the downside and a lot of stocks got stuck in this downward channel now we're still we are still locked in this downward channel with tsm but we do have some sideways consolidation back here in august of 2020 before we really kind of rocket it up there's a little bit of demand for the stock down here between about 78 and i'd say up to about where the stock is trading today at about 81 per share now this stock did get below the channel down here about 75 dollars per share but is quickly recovered showing me that the buyers are stepping in at this area if you started a position in tsm or if you're thinking about starting a position in tsm at this about 80 per share and again from price to sales basis you're paying about seven times from a price to earnings basis you're probably between 15 and 18 depending on if you're looking on the trailing 12 months or looking forward with a company like this i don't think you're wildly overpaying at this price now let's assume maybe you want 10 shares of tsm so you're going to put in maybe like 800 bucks in a company like this again you can times that by 10 or subtract from it depending on your budget depending on your portfolio sites well at this level i wouldn't mind you know two three four shares you know 10 20 30 kind of allocation in this one just in case this level decides to hold because as we remember okay as time goes on our upper trend line this green trend line that goes back essentially over a decade this is going to continue to go up so you know fast forward towards the end of the year and this trend line will be at about where the stock price is today so if you want to jump in right now it's not something i would be overly concerned about this company does pay a dividend it's wildly profitable it's in a sector with some competition but boy it's going to take a long time for the competition to catch up especially when we're talking about building those fabs out here in the united states which not only take a lot of time a lot of manpower but in many cases takes government assistance anytime you're relying on the government here in the united states that's a bad bad thing whether you're an individual or a company so i think tsm is going to have a strong advantage when we're talking about chip demand a year from now two years from now difficult to understand difficult to predict but i think the valuation and the stock price on tsm has pulled into a level where it's not a screaming buy it's not one of these undervalued stocks but we're certainly looking at a much more fair valuation from tsm based on these numbers these strong results the strong gross profits the strong guidance which still looks like this company has strong demand heading into the future i really like this stock i am singing its praises i don't currently own any shares at the current time but this is a stock that i will likely add to my portfolio probably before the end of this year hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video earning season just kicked off so you might want to hit that subscribe button we'll have lots more videos coming soon but that's it for today good luck with your investments
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