저자: Kevin · 외국인
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리테일 기업 실적은 좋아 보이나 모빌리티 데이터상 저소득층 소비 위축으로 리테일 트래픽이 크게 감소(전체 -9.7%)하고 있어 하위 소득층 소비 관련 리테일주는 악재가 남아 있다고 주장. 고소득층 소비와 럭셔리 상품은 여전히 견조하므로 고소득층 타깃 기업 선호. 인플레이션 완화 신호(디젤·목재·비료 가격 하락)는 언급하나 저소득층 타격은 지속될 것으로 봄. 애플 임금 인상과 아이폰 생산 목표 하향도 언급.
다듬은 글
hey folks in this video we're going to talk about retail disasters and this stands in contrast to for example the macy's stock price action or earnings report this morning which we're also going to talk about in this video but there is a big red flag hanging out there and i really want to drill this point home some of these things you've heard me say before but the the thing that i'm going to show you a couple things i'm going to show you you probably have not seen yet so we're going to merge this all together we're going to talk about these potentially very dangerous stocks and how maybe to play some of these so first let's talk a little bit about macy's so macy's is today being treated as the inflation god the reason they're up 12 percent and they're being considered the retail god is in an era where snapchat drops 40 percent best buy plummets and you know you get you get this essential uh well your target plummeted what you know 30 20 30 percent walmart plummets 20 30 and all these retail stocks are completely plummeting because retail stocks that were thought to be safe during an inflation environment you actually have macy's here killing it macy's their margin is up about five basis points we're up to 39.6 versus 39.1 their net sales blew expectations out of the water expectations were to about 250 mil 249.3 came in at 3 315 up 12.4 in q1 the same quarter that we've now heard about a potential negative gdp print that actually got worse not better okay despite prior revisions to other reports we've seen and macy's is actually suggesting that their guide their fiscal year guide is going to be 10 greater but when we dig a little bit deeper there are some really important things to notice here and this is what i kind of call the retail disaster and i want to show you a few charts and then i want to show you what companies like even macy's are saying and i think it really helps paint a clear picture of what we've got going on so the first thing i'm going to show you is something that we've actually talked about in the past before and uh it's sort of this this is a just a little bit of a recap and i just want to make it very very clear in terms of where sort of my head is going into this and we're going to compare so my head going into this sort of inflationary environment has regularly been that if on the left side over here you draw household incomes you know 50k 80k 100k 150k 250k and then on the right you kind of draw just various different companies so uh for example here we put nike i'm going to keep this a little short because i have explained this before but when you look at this it's like okay well who buys a tesla well a person who buys a tesla on averages has around 150 000 uh dollar per year household income so you're probably talking about your wealthy individuals down to maybe about 100k right who buys apple products well probably people not making 50k but somewhere between say like 90 to 130 000 and then potentially up from there right uh who buys nike well this is your your lower kind of demo and up you know wealthier people by nike as well so this could probably extend the point is when you go into an inflationary recession you're what you're kind of doing in my opinion i want to show this visually here is you're kind of taking like a saw blade and you're going like this you're starting at the bottom the poorest people the people who spend like 50 percent of their income on food and and 30 or 40 of their income on on shelter like food gas and shelter and like all their income's gone they're totally paycheck to paycheck to paycheck making you know 20 thousand dollars you take a saw blade to this area and you're like yep you ain't buying new nike shoes anymore yeah and then that levels up and it's like nothing you ain't buying apple phones anymore you know you ain't going shopping at target and walmart as much as you used to because inflation sawn that away right and so obviously it takes longer for for that kind of pain to get to more luxury good companies and so what's fascinating is if we actually look at this chart which just came out from morgan stanley take a look at this the bottom quintile has less excess cash than they did in 2019.
this is really interesting because let me first give you this overall overall so all consumers together have about 140 percent more pp than they did in 2019 pp being purchasing power we also believe that on average households have roughly 15 000 more cash than they did before the pandemic but this is an average it encompasses everyone and it's really not until you zoom out here that you realize oh crap it's actually the lower income demos that are getting rained here look at this the people making zero to you know uh uh 20 or the bottom the bottom 20 percent making you know very little money have no excess cash they're at zero dollars of excess cash the people in the bottom twenty to forty percent have three thousand three hundred dollars of excess cash the next twenty percent nine thousand two hundred dollars but look at the top 20 how much excess cash the top 20 percent has they have 56 000 extra like you could buy a lot of ipads right so one of the things that you can do is you can google something called what income percentile am i in and you could throw in what your income is and calculate what percentage you're in so for example if you make 63 000 you're about in the top 58 percent if you want to be in the top 20 i'm going to take a guess here i'm going to go with 140 000.
yeah you're at the top 12 then if you make over a hundred thousand dollars a year you're about in the top twenty percent so the people who make over a hundred thousand dollars a year have an excess of about fifty seven thousand dollars on average the people who make virtually uh you know or the bottom eighty percent which is like a lot of people the entire bottom eighty percent substantially less money than than these wealthier folks and so what does that mean for what people are buying well listen to this and this becomes important like if you're picking stocks macy's tells us something that we have seen reiterated by jp morgan visa and almost all of the other retailers including target and walmart target walmart they talked about how we're seeing it and so did lowe's in home depot they all talked about this we're seeing a shift away from landscaping we're seeing a shift away from furniture but people are still buying luxury products they're just buying a lot less of other things like apparel or sort of general merchandise luxury products are still selling all the other stuff that bottom saw blade of stuff not doing as well what did macy's tell us this morning quote a noticeable shift to occasion based apparel what that means is that bottom threshold is like crap i can only buy clothing when i need to like oh i need to get a tuxedo i need to get a dress or whatever for an event but that's it i ain't buying clothing anymore because i can't either i already have or have no money left they're also seeing a noticeable shift back to in store that's kind of interesting because i think after like i thought i think after the pandemic everybody's like oh retail's dead like there's no way retail's ever coming back uh everything's just gonna be online apparently not people are still wanting to shop in person but here you go quote continued strength in luxury goods and i thought that was fascinating because this is the same kind of stuff we saw from dick's sporting goods it's the same thing that we saw from nordstrom's ralph lauren and a lot of these other companies that i mentioned already visa jp morgan whatever that's the bottom incomes of threshold of spending those are the ones that are getting whacked we kind of already knew that but let me now show you mobility data that shows potentially going forward because this is like information that's probably like yeah 30 days old you know these investor calls they kind of get prepped beforehand they don't necessarily have to give us all of the latest info though it's some of the most recent stuff that we can get especially on the earnings calls so i still really appreciate looking at the earnings calls but i also realized their sales pitch this though was dirty okay this chart that i'm about to show you this in my opinion somewhat scary so there's this thing called mobility data and that's that when you use your cell phone you're like a dot on a map and your dot kind of flows throughout the world the nsa and caa and fbi or whatever they can follow your dot which doesn't have your name on it but they can assume it's you based on where you live and where you work and then they can pretty much track you wherever you are so if you think you're you have privacy you really don't now what's interesting though about this mobility data is it gives us a lot of insight into where people are going for the purposes of stocks and investing and so i like that because even though it kind of makes you wonder about privacy it's also really cool because maybe it gives us a little bit of a forwarding what's to come for future earnings reports so this chart here is broken down by company and i'm also going to give you some overall sectors a sector declines i'm going to start with the sector declines and i'm going to show you the chart so this number just came out this morning overall retail traffic fell 9.7 percent in this last week compared to the same week last year that's that's bad because everything so far has been beating last year now we've got a big plummet here in retail traffic but you'll be surprised how much some of these stores and sectors are down i just have to give you a quick reminder if you want to bundle code uh there are a bunch of bundles listed and if you want to email me for a special bundle code like if you're confused like which bundle to get or whatever just send an email to kevin kevin.com you got to give me about like a 48 hour response time we're a little bit backed up with so many people emailing and asking like getting set up and getting started and stuff like that but uh we can take care of you there and check out all the different things that you have and know that there's constantly new content that gets added we've got a really big batch of new content coming out in the next couple weeks after that that largest price increase at the end of the month and then we've got a new content dump coming so really really excited check those out i think you'll really enjoy them so retail numbers here the biggest hit by categories a negative 24.6 decline to home improvement and furniture that does not surprise me at all because people stop spending on their homes when they're worried that real estate prices are going to start ticking down or when potentially they're fearful that uh that appreciation has stopped and home appreciation is no longer going to finance their their opportunity to just spend money like crazy on their homes also possible that you know people have already bought furniture with their second homes and all this kind of crap for those fancy people but whatever biggest hit 24.6 decline there department stores and apparel this actually includes macy's in aggregate down 13.8 percent on retail traffic data and now i'm going to show you store by store and it's kind of crazy who remembers what i talked about a few days ago when i talked about a certain company where the ceo is like oh we are noticing a big slowdown in consumer electronics like not sure if we're going to see a recession but maybe maybe it'll be like a softest recession well that ceo was the ceo of best buy and take a look at their retail trading data right here folks look at this chart this is scary best buy folks best buy year over year retail traffic down 56 percent and change on the week down 4.9 percent bed bath and beyond year over year down 36 ulta beauty down 31 lows in home depot down 30 target 27 kohl's 25 victoria's secret 24 gab 19 macy's macy's just killed it on earnings but yet week over week they're down 5.5 percent and year over year their retail traffic is down 19.1 percent folks this is a sign that people especially that lower demo are getting killed by inflation and it's starting to show up in how often people go to stores in the first place people are even going to publix 17 less than they did last year and 6.8 percent less week over week now i don't recall of any kind of like crazy hurricane or anything that all of a sudden made people stay home but these are some bad numbers like i think the only thing that went up was the beauty sector uh year over year oh categorically beauty went up point six percent your year dollar general folks the dollar store up 2.7 year-over-year but still down 7.2 percent uh on the week-over-week grocery stores are seeing less uh aldi is uh fractionally up on the week-over-week over here but all of these numbers are terrible like i don't want to invest in those numbers and it also kind of makes me wonder like is dave busters in that kind of similar category here it's kind of scary so it's something to keep an eye on that retail does get crushed by inflation we know that but specifically that lower demo and this consistently makes me wonder like are the companies that i want to be in are they the teslas the apples the the uh you know starbucks what appeals to that higher demo where they're still going to spend so even though macy's is doing really well today that chart was not very exciting to me but there's also this belief that potentially the end is near that inflation will end up being transitory now i don't want to sound like a broken record because i know when people hear that they just roll their eyes and that's fine but take a look at this diesel prices although they're at roughly an all-time high they're starting to peak and inventories are starting to climb we know that when inventories go up prices tend to eventually come down diesel prices have finally hit that level no guarantees they won't go higher but it's a good sign lumber prices are at the lowest level they've been in since october it's been straight down for lumber prices over the last four months you have a smoothing slash easing of freight fertilizer who remembers how fertilizer was was you know essentially just going to go to the moon because of uh ukraine and russia where we have substantial amounts of fertilizer exports somewhere between 40 to 50 percent of the world's fertilizer pot ash comes from this region well even though it's true those prices have come up substantially fertilizer prices are down 20 from their peak you can look it up green markets north american fertilizer price index clearly we know that there are going to be like over over this next you know decade we're going to look back at this era and go holy crap that was a lot of inflation the question is just how long does it last market expectations are that inflation exp inflation is going to come down and we're starting to see that you look at the used vehicle index it's going to probably be a drag on cpi numbers coming out next month and it's a good thing it doesn't eliminate the fact that lower end retail is still going to get absolutely destroyed by the higher prices that we have now but not just by the higher prices that we have now but also by the fact that people have less money we saw that when we looked at the chart of who has the extra cash who has the extra wealth this chart right here it's certainly not the lower income demographics so i think we'll see that pain coming in the lululemons and the nikes and so on going forward but haven't haven't really seen that yet because we've been so focused on prior quarters where people still had money now the good news is companies are raising wages and that can eventually help that lower income demo but it takes a while for you to actually get in your job if you just start saving money for you to get out of sort of the debts and how far behind you are and then actually spending money again and feeling comfortable again for example apple just announced that they're going to increase pay for its workers to 22 an hour that is up more than 45 from 2018 wages according to the wall street journal that's pretty wild this is also happening at the same time as apple is actively discouraging their employees from unionizing suggesting that their employees might have less flexibility less opportunities to work from home and less opportunities for promotions if they unionize now this is sort of like unspoken and duh but recently in the media it's been coming out that apple like like these things are getting leaked in the media and people are kind of pissed at apple over this idea because it paints this picture of the big corporation versus the employee and so apple's trying to take this proactive step of raising wages again and you see this sort of increase in compensation whether it's through stock based compensation or hourly wages regularly and regular like frequently now including at companies like amazon and facebook although both those companies those latter two have frozen hiring because they'd rather pay their existing employees more this is also by the way when we noticed that apple and we're not sure if this is like directly related to this sort of retail destruction but look apple is not like an extremely luxury brand it's a more expensive brand right if the average household income in america is like sixty thousand apple probably appeals to that eighty to ninety thousand average income demographic so android users are statistically lower income than apple users we know that those are facts but apple now asking suppliers to make about 220 million iphones this year which is flat from last year is also a little bit of a sign that maybe you're starting to see that shaving away from retail purchasing interest now apple was expected to produce about 240 million iphones this year and so a little bit of bad news there for apple because that came in substantially below expectations and flat and reiterates concerns over what's going on in china with the strict lockdowns softer consumer spending and of course the inflationary concerns so all in all this is the kind of market to just be careful with which stocks to pick because i think a lot of bad news for the lower end retail is actually ahead of us not behind us again nike lulu macy's like these guys have all been killing with their earnings i'm just worried if this is the kind of mobility data changes that we're seeing coupled with who has the excess cash who doesn't who's going to the store and who's not who's spending it who's not who has the capacity to spend who's up the retail a lot of these are just companies i just cannot get into and that's what i've really been trying to focus on i'm just going to try it as much as possible park money in uh the high income demos or uh the more luxury goods okay good that gives us an update on a retail uh and uh yeah look forward to seeing you there let's go back to the sticks
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