저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼은 고금리 장기화로 상업용 부동산과 기업 부채 롤오버 부담이 커져 경기 연착륙이 어렵고 '절벽'형 충격이 올 수 있다고 경고하며, 연준의 조기 금리인하를 기대한다. 거시 경기: 경기가 약화되고 있으며 일부 기업에서 이를 확인하고 있다고 본다. 연착륙 컨센서스에 대해 확신하기 어렵다는 입장이다. 상업용 부동산: 상업용 대출 금리는 주거용 고정금리와 달리 몇 년마다 리셋되어 금리 상승 충격이 크다. 예시 기준 금리 3%→9% 시 이자가 NOI(연 5만달러)를 넘어 적자가 되며, 2025년까지 약 1.5조달러 상업용 부동산 대출이 만기 도래한다. 기업 부채: 모건스탠리 추정 약 2.6조달러 회사채가 2024~2026년 만기 도래(2024년 7,700억, 2025·2026년 각 9,000억달러). 코카콜라 예시로 이자율 3%→8%면 연 이자비용이 약 17억달러 증가한다고 설명. 전체 상장사의 약 10%가 이자만 겨우 감당하는 좀비기업으로 추정, 기업 파산 쓰나미 우려. 연준·금리 전망: 시장은 내년 중반 금리인하를 가정하나 애크먼은 실질금리 상승이 경제를 억누르고 있어 연준이 더 일찍(1분기 가능) 인하할 가능성이 높다고 본다. 연준이 인하하지 않으면 경착륙 리스크가 있다. 리스크·반론: 금리가 곧 내려와 차환 부담이 완화될 가능성도 있어 경착륙은 확정이 아니다. 영상 광고: 영상 중반 증권 플랫폼 '뮤뮤(Mumu)' 협찬 및 가입 보너스 홍보가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
I do think the economy is weakening and I have some concerns billionaire investor Bill Amman just issued a dire warning message on the future of the real estate market and economy Amman is the founder and CEO of persing square one of the most well-respected firms on Wall Street that is why it got my attention hearing Amman warn about how it is highly likely that there is a tsunami of real estate bankruptcies on the horizon that is just about to make landfall these bankrupt es have the potential to account for hundreds of billions of dollars and send massive ripples through the economy let's hear what Amman had to say there's a general consensus in the United States in some circles that we probably have avoided a recession for the near future we're going to have a so-called soft Landing that's the consensus is that your view as well I think it's really hard to predict I do think the economy is weakening uh we're seeing you know evidence of that in some of our companies you're seeing uh I have some concerns uh you know the there's been a huge subsidy in terms of low interest rates and companies most companies fix their uh rates or they debt at you know very low rates and certainly Real Estate Investors did the same and that works until it doesn't work and so I think we're what's going to be interesting is to see what happens when people get have to repic their debt and I think that can have sort of a cliff-like effect and you're certainly seeing that uh in real estate unlike most Residential Mortgages interest rates on commercial real estate loans do do not remain the same for the entire length of the loan here in the US when an individual or family purchases a house the vast majority of the time that purchase is financed with the standard 30-year fixed rate mortgage with a fixed rate mortgage the interest rate on the loan is fixed AKA it doesn't change for the entire time that loan is outstanding this concept is incredibly important to understand and helps put amman's warning into context since the interest rate never changes the home owner knows that their mortgage payment is going to remain exactly the same for as long as they own the house or of course until they pay off the loan in full homeowners with fixed rate mortgages don't have to worry about their mortgage payment doubling or even tripling due to interest rate spiking this is a big reason why foreclosures on mortgages have been so rare in 2021 only one tenth of 1% of homes in the US were in foreclosure even during the worst period of the Great Recession that number was only 2% just a fraction of the default rate of other loans such as credit cards and auto loans us homeowners are truly fortunate that fixed rate mortgages exist owners of commercial properties are not as lucky unlike Residential Mortgages commercial property loans are not fixed for the entirety of the loan instead the interest rate on Commercial loans reset every few years while this may not sound like a huge deal the impacts of these interest rate resets can be truly devastating and that's not an exaggeration here's an example to demonst demonstrate meet John JN had been saving his income for years and years and finally decided to buy a small apartment building as an investment let's say this building costs $1 million like most real estate owners John didn't have the entire purchase price of the property in cash just sitting in his bank account as a result John had to take out a loan to finance the purchase he put $200,000 down and borrowed the remaining $800,000 from the bank the ultimate success of this inv investment for John is dependent on many things but one of the most important is the interest rate on the loan in this example let's say JN got an interest only loan at 3% this means that each year John as the owner is responsible for paying 3% of the total loan amount in interest payments to the bank think of this as the equivalent of a mortgage payment for a homeowner at this 3% rate the annual debt payment to the bank is $24,000 these debt payments are paid by the property's net operating income or noi for short think of noi as the profit of the property excluding debt payments the calculation is super simple just take the rent the property generates and subtract out any expenses associated with owning maintaining and managing the building let's say in our example this piece of real estate generates $50,000 in net operating income a year as we can see this property has more than enough noi to cover the $224,000 yearly debt payment however let's see what happens as the interest rate increases if we bump the interest rate in this example from 3% to 6% the annual debt payment increases to $48,000 the noi on John's building still covers the debt payment but things are definitely more shaky if we take our interest rate up to 9% the property is now suddenly losing money the annual interest payment is now whopping $72,000 a year Well above the 50,000 the building is gener generating an income the owner JN has one of two options JN can either come up with the money to pay the difference or if he's unable to do this the bank will take over the property through a foreclosure often at a massive loss for both JN and the bank while this example here is of course oversimplified it is symbolic of the massive challenge facing the real estate market there is an estimated $1.5 trillion worth of these commercial real estate loans coming due between now and 2025 this is the hypothetical Cliff the real estate market is heading towards that Amman is referring to for background Bill Amman runs one of the most prestigious hedge funds in the entire world persing square persing square oversees a whopping $10 billion in investor money generating likely hundreds of millions in management fees for Amman as the owner these management fees are used to pay for for pricey subscriptions to research platforms such as Bloomberg or faat as a professional investor working out of New York myself I'm going to let you in on a secret these expensive services are completely overrated I'm able to complete many of the same tasks using Mumu the sponsor of today's video Mumu is an online brokerage and an incredibly powerful research platform for example one of my favorite things to do to get new investment ideas is to track the stock portfolios of large well-respected investors in Mumu we can see amman's portfolio breakdown by industry as well as recent buys and sales Bloomberg offers these same types of services but charges tens of thousands of dollars a year thankfully Mumu was kind enough to sponsor this video and give my viewers an exclusive massive signup bonus by using my referral Link in the description of this video new users will receive a up to 15 free stocks when they make a qualified deposit into their account additionally users that transfer over their portfolio from another brokerage can receive up to $5,000 in cash rewards subject to change make sure to sign up using my link because these free stocks are an extremely generous signup bonus now back to the video we talked earlier about how Amman is worried the real estate market is heading for a cliff however whether the real estate market Market falls off this Cliff depends mostly on just one thing according to Amman listen to him explain now the markets are assuming and the markets are not always right but the markets are assuming that there's going to be a Fed discount cut sometime next year and as we talk now just about the end of November um it's not clear what the FED will do but uh some people say that the FED if they were to cut interest rates next year would help the Democrats and therefore be seen as very political the other hand some people say the FED can't wait till after the election because the e economy might need a a stimulus so you have a view on what the fed's likely to do I think they're going to cut rates and uh you I think they're going to cut rates sooner than people expect uh because you know what's happening is the real rate of interest ultimately which is what impacts the economy keeps increasing as inflation declines right so if the FED keeps rates in the sort of middle fives uh and inflation is you know trending below 3% or uh you know that's a very high real rate of interest and I think that is having a sort of retarding effect on the economy and then of course again uh you know many businesses and certainly many individuals have the benefit of fixed rate debt and uh that fixed rate debt certainly for companies and for commercial real estate starts to roll off so I think there's a risk of a hard Landing If the Fed doesn't start cutting rates you know pretty soon so you know I think the market expects sometime middle of next year I think it's more likely probably as early as q1 in the US interest rates spent the better part of the last 15 years at or near 0% during that time businesses and Real Estate Investors loaded up on cheap debt that is about to come due we've already talked about the over $ 1.5 trillion worth of commercial real estate loans that are coming due in the next few years however that only tells part of the story the world's largest companies are facing a similar challenge according to Morgan Stanley there is an estimated nearly $2.6 trillion in corporate debt coming due over the next 3 years that breaks down to 770 billion in 201 24 and 900 billion in both 2025 and 2026 okay so you may be asking yourself why this matters surely the world's largest companies have the ability to pay off their debts when they come due well believe it or not the vast majority of times that isn't actually the case I'm going to let you in on a little secret when large corporations have debt come du they rarely have the means to be able to pay it off with cash instead they just issue a new loan and use the money from that new loan to pay off the loan that is about to come due this is a concept referred to as rolling over debt and this wasn't really a problem when interest rates remained at low levels however now the situation is massively different companies will be replacing old debt with incredibly low interest rates with new debt that has a significantly higher interest rate while this may sound like just a small inconvenience the impacts of this debt repricing will surely send Ripple effects throughout the economy let's use the iconic company Coca-Cola as an example as of its most recent earnings release Coca-Cola had $34 billion of long-term debt outstanding to show why higher interest rates matter let's do a simple thought experiment just for the sake of argument let's say that Coca-Cola has a 3% interest rate on this $34 billion of debt this means that every year Coca-Cola has to pay roughly $1 billion in interest now again just for the sake of argument let's let's see what happens if we raise that interest rate to 8% the annual interest expense now jumps to $2.7 billion a staggering roughly $1.7 billion increase this higher interest expense comes directly out of Coca-Cola's bottom line making them less profitable it's more than just the shareholders of Coca-Cola that are impacted in our example here Coca-Cola now has 1.7 billion less dollars available that can be used for things that would grow the business think action such as hiring new employees developing new products and spending more money on Advertising Coca-Cola pulling back on spending would obviously negatively impact the economy Coca-Cola is a stable Blue Chip company I think it's safe to say that Coca-Cola will be just fine in the long run however many other companies aren't quite as fortunate it is estimated that roughly 10% of us publicly traded companies are what it refer to as zombie companies these are heavily indebted companies that are barely getting by just making enough money to cover their debts but that's about it these zombie companies simply can't afford to see their interest payments increase at all let alone double or even triple if interest rates remain high and these companies are forced to roll over their debt there will likely be a tsunami of corporate bankruptcies obviously with devastating effects on the economy this is why according to Amman the FED has no choice but to lower interest rates if it wants to avoid a painful recession if interest rates remain high it's only a matter of time until the real estate market and economy fall off the proverbial Cliff however it's not all doom and gloom though this hard Landing is far from a guarantee there is a very real possibility that interest rates start to come down soon and Real Estate Investors and businesses are able to avoid having to refinance debt at these high interest rates only time will tell but one thing is for certain we are living in truly unprecedented times so there we have it make sure to subscribe to the channel because it's my goal to make you a better investor by studying the world's greatest investors talk to you again 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