저자: Tom · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 Daily Journal의 미국 포트폴리오 약 19%를 알리바바에 투입한 것은 2009년 이후 첫 거래이며, 개인적으로 가치 대비 저평가로 보고 심층 분석 예정이라는 영상. 배경: 멍거는 개인 포트폴리오(Berkshire Hathaway, Costco 등)를 거의 매매하지 않는 장기 보유형 투자자이며, Daily Journal은 2009년 이후 거래가 없었다고 설명. 멍거의 과거 투자: 2009년 금융위기 때 웰스파고, 뱅크오브아메리카, US뱅코프를 바닥 근처에 매수해 성과를 냈고, 이 보유 방식이 알리바바 투자에도 적용될 것으로 추정. 알리바바 개요: 중국 최대 전자상거래 기업으로 2020년 매출 약 720억 달러, 매출·이익 성장률이 최근 수년간 연 최대 50% 수준이었다고 소개. 간접 보유 이력: 멍거가 투자한 리루(Li Lu)의 Himalaya Capital이 2020년 8월까지 알리바바 약 1억 7500만 주(약 43억 달러)를 보유했었음. Daily Journal 포트폴리오 변화: 2020년 12월 기준 BAC, WFC, USB, POSCO, BYD H주 5종목(약 2억 1800만 달러, BYD 약 57%)에서, 2021년 4월에는 알리바바 편입 후 약 3억 5700만 달러로 증가. 미국 포트폴리오 기준 알리바바 비중 19%, BYD 포함 전체 기준 약 10%. 가치 평가(러프): 향후 5년 성장률을 공격적 전망 29%에서 15%로 하향 조정한 DCF 가정, 2020년 잉여현금흐름 약 240억 달러, 순현금 약 480억 달러, 주식수 약 27억 주 기준 내재가치 주당 약 440달러. 50% 안전마진 적용 시 매수가 약 220달러, 당시 주가 약 230달러로 저평가로 제시. 리스크/조건: 발표자는 본인 분석이 아직 심층이 아니며 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시. 멍거의 "어떤 기업도 무한한 가격의 가치는 없다"는 안전마진 원칙을 인용. 출연자 전망: 알리바바가 현재 저평가 상태로 보이며, 추후 심층 분석 영상을 제작해 멍거의 의도를 확인하겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
hey it's tom here and welcome back to the channel so massive news out of charlie munger and the daily journal corporation this week and that is that charlie munger has put 19 of the daily journal corporations us portfolio into a new stock and this is massive news for a couple of reasons firstly uh we get to see what charlie munger is buying and we can you know publicly see what their company is and then of course look at it ourselves as a potential investment but secondly charlie munger almost never has a transaction he has a few stocks in his personal portfolio those stocks are burch hathaway costco and he also has a chunk of lee lou's fund himalayan capital uh and that's basically it he never has a transaction and he always tells people that he's you know constantly outperforming the market by basically just sitting on his backside and letting those businesses compound uh and within the daily journal corporation which he also manages money for they uh to my knowledge have not had a transaction since 2009 there's a very famous story of charlie munger basically pulling over on the highway in order to call his broker and put a whole bunch of money into three companies that been wells fargo bank of america and u.s bancorp and basically just by sheer fluke essentially timing those three stocks to almost the absolute bottom during the financial crisis um that part of it was a fluke but he was more than confident that those businesses would perform quite well relative to the price that he was paying and just this week in april 2021 uh this is the first transaction that has happened for the daily journal corporation since that day in 2009 and charlie munger has gone ahead and bought e-commerce giant alibaba and i want to talk a little bit about that business specifically uh also going to look at a rough estimate of intrinsic value for the company to see what kind of price charlie munger was pain that will be towards sort of the back end of the video so uh keep an eye out for that and we'll also talk through some other things to do with uh manga and the daily journal corporation i think it's easy to look up their 13 filings and look at the us holdings and try and uh sort of piece together what's going on with the us portfolio but there's actually also some other considerations they also own some overseas stocks uh one big one in particular being byd so i've gone ahead and done some work on basically putting together the overall daily journal corporation portfolio um what it looked like back in december last year when i actually did a video on the daily journal corporation and now what it looks like today in april 2021 with a new stock built in and some updated prices for the existing holdings firstly let's talk about charlie munger's actual investment strategy and then we can kind of start to see where alibaba might fit into that strategy so charlie manga very famously had a big influence on his longtime business partner warren buffett at berkshire hathaway now warren buffett had initially been educated by ben graham and he was basically uh sort of taught to buy very cheap beaten down companies that were trading well below maybe the liquidation value or the cash that they had on the balance sheet basically extremely cheap companies are really balance sheet focused and not necessarily caring about the prospects for the company moving forward because you could basically just wind it up and distribute all the assets and the cash and so on to the shareholders and make a profit that way so that was sort of the way that um buffett and even manga back in the day were investing but as berkshire hathaway and warren buffett and charlie munger sort of scaled up and had a lot more money to invest those opportunities really became a lot more limited and they were forced to sort of pivot their strategy into more high quality businesses that they can own for a long period of time and that of course led to some very famous investments from buffett and burch hathaway in the form of seized candy coca-cola american express apple more recently and countless other businesses that he was able to basically buy and just hold on to for decades in some cases and have those businesses compound over time and have the intrinsic value of those companies grow as well and uh charlie munger still has that exact same strategy that's what he did with the us banks he bought them and he sat on them and they've done quite well over the past decade and he has also done the exact same thing with his berkshire hathaway position his costco position which i think he's owned since around 2000 and now i think he probably has similar plans with his alibaba position in the daily journal corporation's portfolio now alibaba as a business of course is the e-commerce giant in china that was founded by jack ma a very famous entrepreneur worldwide at this point and alibaba is operating in several different sort of business segments so they're actually quite famous for constantly pumping out new subsidiaries they actually um have like several subsidiaries a week sometimes even get registered which is kind of crazy to me um but certainly some of their bigger brands are quite well known so of course we have aliexpress which you can buy a whole bunch of cheap stuff here um i know i used to get all like my gopro accessories and things from aliexpress uh still buy the occasional thing over there uh really cheap not the highest quality goods in the world but um very useful if you're wanting to save a bit of money on things like gopro accessories and you know that kind of stuff in my case um so we have aliexpress we have alibaba.com we have doraz alibaba cloud alibaba pictures alisports.com and the list sort of just goes on and on and on and on it's a very very long list of subsidiaries that the business has and it's a massive entity so back in 2020 uh the company produced and us dollar terms about 72 billion uh us dollars so massive company and really interesting to see charlie munger buy into one of these big companies that is actually still growing really fast so if you look at their revenue and earnings growth growth over the past few years both of those things have grown extremely fast in some cases close to about 50 percent a year over the past few years so um you know charlie munger is a value investor but he's willing to buy these higher growth companies because growth is of course a pivotal factor in the overall value equation as charlie munger would put it all intelligent investing is value investing let's look at two more things in this video firstly i want to look at the daily journal corporation's overall portfolio as it stands now including the overseas holdings as far as we can gather because they haven't actually ever been uh disclosed in daily journal corporation reports but there's been some very intelligent people on the internet kind of tracking possible stocks that that this could be based on the daily journal corporation's balance sheet movements over time uh and also some of the things that charlie mugger has said where he has actually explicitly said in some daily journal meetings that the company owns some byd stock and so on so let's look at the portfolio as it stood back in december when i made a video on the on the company and also let's look at the uh portfolio today in april 2021.
so if we go back to december we basically have five stocks in the portfolio we have bank of america wells fargo us bancorp posco which is uh definitely a lesser successful investment for manga but he's still just holding on to that uh and also byd h shares trading on the hong kong stock exchange and at the time the big story there was that the price of byd shares had just exploded in the last 12 months so so that stock specifically at the time made up about 57 of the portfolio which as a whole was worth around 218 million dollars if we fast forward through to today um again we have those five stocks still sitting in the portfolio but we now have a number six so um the five stocks uh of course been bank for america wells fargo u.s bank or posco and byd still sit in there i've updated the prices here which you will see on the screen because pretty much all of those stocks have gone up with the exception of byd which has come down very slightly but i've also added in the alibaba position now if you look on a website like whale wisdom for example you will see that it says alibaba makes up 19 of the portfolio uh that's only considering the us position so if we include byd in the mix here we can see that alibaba actually only makes up about 10 percent of the portfolio but nonetheless still a relatively sizable bet for the overall company and the portfolio is now worth about 357 million dollars part of that is from those initial five stocks kind of going up a little bit and part of it is from the new alibaba position that's been added to the portfolio and interestingly this is actually probably not the first time that charlie munger has actually owned alibaba now it may be surprising for you to hear that but manga has actually owned this before indirectly and that is because uh he's a big investor in lilu's fund himalaya capital and lilu uh was actually a shareholder in alibaba at one point up until august 2020 uh lilu's fund himalaya capital actually owned about 175 million shares of alibaba uh like i say they were sold in about august 2020 but at the time that was a huge position for the fund it was worth about 4.3 billion dollars in total that holding um assets under management for himalayan capital is a little bit tricky to get data on uh but most estimates that are floating around are that they have about 13 billion dollars under management so about four of the 13 billion was simply an alibaba at that time uh and of course charlie munger sort of owned some of that indirectly by being an investor in the fund okay so finally for today's video let's do a quick intrinsic value assessment for alibaba now i have to preface this by saying that i have not yet done a deep dive on alibaba but after seeing some of the numbers that i'm about to present to you i'm definitely going to do that so um for most of this i'm really just working off the current business performance and also the current expectations of analysts in terms of future growth but of course if you're looking at making an investment in alibaba yourself do your own work do your own research understand the risks and potential rewards that are within that business and don't take these numbers as investment advice of course but with that said here's a screenshot of my rough sort of intrinsic value initial assessment for alibaba so they're currently working off about a 29 expected growth rate for the next five years that is a large growth rate so of course do your research and make sure you're confident they can achieve that i've scaled that down this is just my own estimate to 15 for the next five years in this discounted cash flow and the other stats for the business is that last year they produced about 24 billion in free cash flow and they had net cash of close to 48 billion dollars so if we run all those numbers and we convert that to a per share basis as well with about 2.7 billion shares outstanding uh this is what we get so we get a present value of future cash flows of about 1.1 trillion us dollars they've got a little bit of cash so that pushes us up to 1.2 trillion dollars in market cap terms and that gives us an intrinsic value per share of about 440 us dollars now if we want a margin of safety let's just jump straight to the big 50 margin of safety we would have to buy at about 220 us dollars and the current price for alibaba is about 230 us dollars so if all of those assumptions happen to be correct uh that makes alibaba look really cheap today so um charlie munger certainly loves to buy a great business but he certainly does not like to overpay for it uh in his own words no business is worth an infinite price and we must get a margin of safety given the natural vicissitudes of life that is a quote from charlie munger so those are my thoughts on the initial sort of intrinsic value for alibaba and a bit of the background on the daily journal corporation and manga's investment strategy and the lilu connection and so on so really interesting one for me to see this news this week and this is definitely going to cause me to do a deep dive on alibaba coming up very soon to um see if i can figure out what charlie munger was kind of seen here so that's it for me today i
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