저자: MonishPabrai · 외국인
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Pabrai는 마이크론(MU)을 2018년 말부터 매수해온 최대 보유 종목으로 밝힘. 메모리 산업이 3사 과점으로 재편돼 수익성 안정화. 'end goal' 분석으로 매출 1500억→3000억달러 성장 가정 시 마이크론이 200억~300억달러 현금흐름 창출 가능, 시총 약 600억달러 대비 저평가. 포지션 비중은 약 10%에서 최고 25%였다가 현재 약 20% 이하. 주가 목표는 200~250달러 수준(구매 평균 약 30달러 기준 언급), 장기 보유 관점.
다듬은 글
I don't know if we'll get to $500 a share—in your mouth and in God's ears—but I think we could get to a couple hundred dollars a share. Of course, no problem. We bought 30, and if the price goes up to 200 or 250, and he buys back shares, etc., then it will be a good profit. During a recent conversation with students at the College of William and Mary, Monish Pabrai detailed why his fund's largest investment is Micron Technology—a stock he's been accumulating since late 2018 at prices not too dissimilar from today.
In this video, let's look at some of the points Monish Pabrai made about his investment in Micron. One resource that will definitely help you monitor your own portfolio performance is Sharesight, the sponsor of today's video . The end of the year is almost here , as is tax filing season in many parts of the world.
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And if you decide to upgrade to a premium subscription for more features, this link will give you four months free when you pay for the annual plan. During this conversation, Pabrai mentions that one of the main reasons for his investment in Micron is the overall consolidation that has occurred in the memory industry, where there are now only three major players left.
It's something like an oligopoly, where many different companies can apparently compete in harmony and make acceptable profits, and here's what Pabray had to say on the subject after talking about oligopolies with Charlie Munger himself. I had a conversation with Charlie Munger a while ago; We didn't discuss Micron directly, but we talked about oligopolies, especially ones where they can't negotiate.
One of the features of oligopolies is that, say, Coke and Pepsi can't just sit in a room and set prices. This is a kind of violation of antitrust laws and all sorts of other illegal actions. But as long as you don't get involved in a bunch of irrational actions, you can achieve real success. So I asked Charlie about the nature of oligopolies, and he said that Buffett had studied Coke and Pepsi bottlers in many regions of the United States and the world , and he found that probably 95-97% of the time both bottlers were making good profits.
Basically, these are strong brands, people have preferences and so on. This is not a price advantage. If Pepsi is on sale and Coke is very expensive, you may want to change your choice. But in some geographic regions, maybe 3-5%, one of the owners decided he wanted a much larger market share. So they engaged in price wars and other actions in an attempt to capture market share.
And, of course, your competitor is going to react to this . So you ended up in markets where no one was making money. Regarding Micron, Hynix, and Samsung, I was very surprised when I first studied this business by how often they turn to the markets. It seems like they have quarterly calls, then hold investor conferences and update forecasts.
So, there's a lot going on there . It's not just four times a year that they let the investing public know what's going on. And it took me a while to realize: they were n't talking to me, they were talking to each other. So if they go out on the roof, if Samsung goes out on the roof and shouts, "My capital expenditure this year is going to be 20 billion, and I'm going to produce so many chips, for example." Two days later, Micron will make a similar statement, saying, "My capital expenditures this year are going to be 10 billion, and that's the number I'm going to produce." So, Mr.
Pabray is obviously a big fan of Micron, but it's not always clear to us, ordinary investors, how big a bet he's making on this stock. Moniz invests heavily outside the US, where there is much less transparency about which companies he invests in . And in this conversation with the students, he actually revealed how big a stake in Micron is in his portfolio.
Micron—it's not 37%. In general, all assets are not reported, for example, Form 13F does not reflect our foreign assets and so on. We don't...I don't invest more than 10% of my assets in anything. So when we made the investment in Micron, it was a 10 percent rate. At its peak, I think it was somewhere around 25% of the rate, but now the figure has decreased.
So it could be around 20% or a little less. It is now well known that in 2020, Monish Pabrai significantly changed his investment philosophy: from buying " cigarette butt-type" businesses or companies that, in his opinion, were trading at half price, he moved to looking for higher-quality companies that grow in the long term.
This decision was largely influenced by British fund manager Nick Slip, who provided investors with over 20% annual returns by investing in a small number of extremely high-quality companies. When Nick Slip closed his fund, only three key positions remained in the portfolio: Amazon, Costco, and Berkshire Hathaway.
A key part of Nick Slip's analysis of all three companies, especially a business like Amazon, was the idea of " end goal analysis." That means forgetting about the next quarter or two's results, focusing instead on where the company might be in five or ten years and what that will mean for long-term business owners, as in his case with Amazon.
And it seems that Monish Pabrai has fully adopted this " end goal analysis" approach with Micron. In any business I own, we don't worry about next quarter or even next year, as is the case with Micron. Overall, I think it's just an analysis of the end goal. Basically, they believe that in this industry, memory manufacturers generate about $150 billion in revenue per year — all three combined — and that $150 billion, they think, will grow to $300 billion in seven to eight years.
We don't know exactly if that's going to happen, whether it's going to be 50 billion or 350 billion, or exactly where that number is going to be, but it's probably going to be around 300 billion, maybe more, and Micron's share could be 75-85......85 billion or so, maybe 100 billion of that . And then you just ask yourself: can they generate about $20–30 billion in cash flow per year?
And yes, I think they can. Now for reference: Micron's market cap is now around $60 billion , so if they can actually achieve that $ 20–30 billion cash flow in seven or eight years, as Monish Pabrai predicts in his analysis of the end goal for Micron. This would mean that they only trade at a P/E ratio of two or three relative to future earnings.
Does a large business that is growing and becoming more stable and predictable tend to trade in the US at a multiple of two or three to profit? Absolutely not. Um, if we apply even just a long-term market average multiple of, say, 15 to earnings, to that future cash flow that Pabrai mentions here, that would imply a stock price of 5 to 7.5 times Micron's current price.
Of course, the main risk here is that these cash flows, you know, may not show up at Micron. But it's clear that Pabrai really likes the chances in this situation. Finally, one of the students directly asks Monish Pabrai what he thinks Micron's stock price might be in a few years, and he shares his thoughts on the subject, which is quite unusual and rare for a fund manager.
But, true to the tradition of Monish Pabrai, he reminds students that mistakes are an integral part of the process. He has a basket of different investments in his portfolio, and Micron is one of them, but he reminds students that even with a high error rate, you can make good profits. Interestingly, he also touches on the issue of his level of conviction regarding Micron.
Do you know how confident he is that these cash flows will come in seven or eight years, compared to some of the other investments in his portfolio? You don't really care whether you buy Micron at $120 a share or $50 if you believe it will be worth $500 or $1,000 a share. After that, let's move on to Tommy Tiger.
I don't know if we'll get to $500 a share—with your mouth and God's ear, but I think we could get to a couple hundred dollars a share. Of course, no problem. We were buying around 30, and if we get to 200 or 250, they buy back shares, etc., then that will be a good profit. The thing is, Micron is not, I would say, my strongest idea.
We made a bet of 10% . There is nothing wrong with business . This is good business. They have good management. They understand capital allocation. And everything is so different. So my position is—let it work. We have nine other rates, and we want them to be uncorrelated with each other. And so, probably, in the end, it will happen that five or six of them will work , and one or two will perhaps even bring losses, and one or two will remain at zero or something like that .
And if it really happens, we will have a huge success, no problem. So, Micron is clearly a big bet for Monish Pabrai. In fact, this is a fairly popular stock among many super investors. This appears in Leelu's portfolio. Uh, that's because Monish and Lilu actually collaborated on this particular investment idea.
Uh, it's also found in the portfolios of Guy Spear, Prem Watsa, and even Seth Klarman. And it's exciting to hear an investor like Monish talk about Micron's investment case in real time while the investment is still working. So, if you want to watch Monish Pabrai's full talk , I'll leave a link in the description below along with an offer from Stratosphere of four free months towards a yearly subscription. But that's all for me, and I'll see you in the next video. See you later.
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