저자: InvestingwithTom진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 버핏의 2001년 강연 요지는 시장 붕괴 시 감정 대신 현금흐름 기반의 객관적 가치 판단을 유지하라는 것이며, 영상 진행자는 이를 2022년 약세장 대응 교훈으로 제시한다. [강연 개요 및 시장 역사] 20세기 미국 1인당 GDP는 610% 성장했고 매 10년 단위로도 성장했으며, 같은 기간 주식시장은 1000달러가 약 18만 달러로 늘었다. 100년 중 43.75년은 강세장, 56.25년은 주식 수익이 정체되거나 마이너스였고, 그 마이너스 구간을 강세장 구간이 모두 상쇄했다. [투자자 심리 분석] 투자자는 최근 과거를 미래로 외삽하는 경향이 있어, 1970년 연금은 신규 자금의 100% 이상을 주식에 넣었고 1978년에는 9%만 넣었다. 가격이 높고 미래 수익률이 낮을 때 오히려 더 많이 사고, 가격이 낮을 때 덜 사는 역행적 행동이 나타난다. [버핏의 투자 원칙] 사업 판단은 현금을 얼마나, 언제, 얼마나 확실히 받을지 세 가지 질문으로 정리된다. 답할 수 없는 기업은 투자하지 말아야 하며, 답이 명확하면 자본 배분을 고려해야 한다. 버핏은 자신의 가장 큰 실수로 '행동하지 않은 것(기회 방치)'을 꼽았다. [내재가치 관점] 주식을 채권처럼 보고 미래 현금흐름을 추정해야 하며, 금리 15%라면 5년 내 2배 현금이 있어야 채권 등가이고, 금리 3%라면 20년에 2배도 의미가 있을 수 있다. [사례] 캔자스시티 라이프 보험사는 PER 3배로 저평가였으나 영업사원들이 2% 이자율 가정의 보험을 팔고 있었고, 이는 주가 대비 투자자 심리의 역설을 보여준다. [진행자 결론] '지속될 수 없는 것은 결국 끝난다'는 교훈을 강조하며, 시장 하락기에 객관성과 내재가치 판단을 유지하라고 권한다. [리스크 및 조건] 이는 2001년 발언의 재소개로, 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 포함되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
this weekend for me started like many others i woke up about 7 30 or 8 in the morning my lovely girlfriend bought me a hot cup of coffee i flipped through a few pages of the book that i'm currently reading right now that is am i being too subtle by sam zell i then rolled out a bed and stumbled to the kitchen i started cooking some breakfast and of course i put on the brand new latest episode of the young investors podcast from brandon van der kolk and hamish hodder and one of the things that brandon specifically talked about on the podcast this week was a 2001 talk that warren buffett did at the terry college of business and that was basically a q a session that warren buffett did with the students of that business school he got questions on a range of different topics and a couple of them related to basically how to stay rational during a stock market crash so last night i went back and kind of watched all the things that warren buffett had to say to put together some highlights for this video and i think some of these timeless lessons from buffett are super valuable today at a time where we are now officially in bear market territory with many of these stock market indices in the us down more than 20 so if you enjoy this video where we go through some of the highlights from that talk from warren buffett where he covers booms and busts in the u.s stock market as well as some of his advice on how to stay rational and take advantage of these lower prices then be sure to hit like and also subscribe to the channel if you are new here but without further ado let's get straight into the video now one of the first questions that buffett got on market cycles and bull markets and beer markets and stock market crashes caused him to talk a little bit about the general history of what happened in the u.s stock market during the 20th century where he was first getting started in his investment career now during the 20th century the gdp per capita growth in the united states was 610 percent and if you were to break that gdp growth down by decade uh that gdp actually grew every single decade including the 1930s in in the great depression and that basically means that the united states was steadily trucking along getting more productive and american business was presumably getting more profitable and quality of life was of course improving as a result and of course there were periods where the economy grew faster and when it grew slower and there were a number of very serious um concerning macro events during that century but by and large the economy was steadily trucking along and growing year after year after year to the point where it grew like i say 610 for the entire century and if you had been a stock market investor throughout that period your money would have grown about 180 x 1 000 invested would have turned into about a hundred and eighty thousand dollars and although investors got fantastic results from being in the stock market throughout that century there were very very long periods of time where the market went nowhere and by contrast there were a small number of years where the market went up very very fast now for 43 and three-quarter years of that 100-year century the u.s stock market was in a bull market and for 56 and one-quarter years these were periods of stagnation in terms of stock market returns in fact the aggregate return from those 56 and one-quarter years were actually negative and the 43 and three-quarter years actually made up for all of that negative return as well as the entire 180x positive return that you got in stocks during that century and again those 56 and one-quarter years were with a backdrop of a u.s economy that was growing very very steadily buffett explains this very unusual disconnect between stocks and the u.s economy basically by saying that investors behave in very human ways they tend to extrapolate the recent past and definitely out into the future in other words if stocks performed very well last year and your dumb neighbor was getting rich by speculating in certain stocks you were likely to again invest your money in stocks the next year and if your experience with stocks had been quite negative and perhaps you lost money last year it meant that you extrapolated those negative returns out into the future as well and you were very unlikely to allocate new money towards stock market investments he said that in 1970 when stock markets had just been doing exceptionally well pension funds put more than 100 of their new money into stocks and in 1978 when the stock market was performing very poorly pension funds put a record low nine percent of the new capital into stocks which is very unusual because when the stock market has been for performing well the stock prices get very high and the future returns look very low yet people tend to allocate more heavily at periods of time like that versus periods of time when prices are low ford returns are actually better people for whatever reason tend to allocate for a small amount of capital to stocks at those times but buffett did say if you can follow a few very simple ideas and stay rational through these big booms and busts there is a huge amount of opportunity for you as an investor so here is some of the advice that buffett had on how he thinks about investing in stocks to stay rational during these big boom and bust times the first thing he said is that you need to stay objective and really detach yourself temperamentally from the crowd he used an old parable from esop where he said a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and he said that esop basically had that right when it came to analyzing businesses and there are really only three questions that you need to ask when you are looking to invest in a business how much cash you're going to get when are you going to get it and how sure are you he explains that if you can't answer that question for a business that you're looking at then you have absolutely no business investing in that company even if you've seen your dumb neighbor make money by gambling on stocks or gambling on a particular company in the past but he did say if you can answer those three questions and it looks like a no-brainer then he thinks that it makes sense to allocate some capital towards that stock and he actually went on to say that some of his biggest mistakes in investing are mistakes of omission there have been investments where he has lost money in the past sure but really the biggest mistakes are the ones where he knew enough about the company to make the investment but he sat there sucking his thumb as he kind of phrases it and he then went on to say when we get the chance to do something right and big we have to do it he then went on to speak in a little more detail about intrinsic value and how he tries to understand whether he's actually getting a good price for an investment and again he goes back to this aesop you know a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and he says basically you need to think about valuing businesses as though they were a bond now of course when a bond gets issued or when you buy a bond there is basically information on that bond that tells you exactly what return you're going to get it tells you what the cash flows are going to be so maybe when you buy a bond it says that it's a two percent yield for example and it might say that it expires in december 2023 for argument's sake so that means that you're going to get two percent a year in interest until the end of 2023 at which point you get your principal back so yes after you buy a bond the face value of that bond can swing around wildly if interest rates were to change but the cash flows that you're going to get after you buy that bond are very easy to calculate and he thinks that value in stocks is basically a very similar equation the trouble is that there aren't cash flows printed on a stock certificate it's the job of the analyst or the investor to go in and figure out how much cash they are likely to get between now and judgement day as he calls it uh from a business that you might be investing in buffett goes on to say that if interest rates are 15 you need to get two birds out of the bush within five years to be equal to a bird in the hand that's basically a reference saying that you need to be getting a 15 return from your stock market investments to be equal to a bond where you're taking very little risk if you can get 15 in a bond and he said if interest rates are only three percent you can get two birds out in 20 years and it might still make sense and of course all of that is to say that if you can't figure out the cash flows for the business relative to what the price is uh you have no business buying the stock if you were to buy the stock you would be gambling it was then really interesting to hear from buffett on some previous experiences that he had around investor psychology and just how caught up people can get in terms of being super optimistic about stocks or super pessimistic about stocks he gives the example of a company that he was looking at back in the day flipping through moody's manuals looking at quantitative data for different companies and he stumbled across a business called the kansas city life insurance company now the kansas city life insurance company was a business that was trading at a p of three so if the earnings of that business were steady for three years you would get all of your money back in that short space of time he said there was no issue with soundness of the company and he really did think that you could get a 30 return or more by investing in the kansas city life insurance company uh yet when he went to talk to one of the sales reps for the company who was selling these life insurance products uh he discovered that the life insurance policies that people were buying had an implied interest rate assumption essentially of about two percent per year and he said you know if i can convince anyone to buy the stock surely it's this guy selling life insurance for the kansas city life insurance company you know he's already very reliant on the company in terms of getting his paycheck every single week he sells policies that you know he clearly thinks for a good deal if he's selling them with an implied two percent interest rate and here is the stock of a company that um you presumably have a lot of faith in and that you work for that can give you potentially 30 plus returns per year yet his response was just that our stocks are no good he said again that things can go on for a long time that just don't make any sense you've got to do sensible things to get good results and uh he had kind of a funny quote which was things that can't go on forever will eventually end which is something that i guess has stuck with them over time sounds extremely obvious but i think people can get uh clearly overly greedy and of course overly fearful depending simply on what stock prices are doing and you have to remain objective and understand what the true intrinsic value of businesses are relative to the price that the market is offering so those are some of my personal highlights from going back and watching this talk from warren buffett in 2001 with the terry college of business and thank you of course to brandon hamish for reminding me that this talk even exists and uh that there's some you know good nuggets of wisdom in there around what to do during stock market downturns so i do hope you enjoyed this video if you did please hit like and also subscribe to the channel if you are new here but that's it for me for this one and i'll see you in the next video cheers
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