저자: InvestingwithTom · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 초기 투자자 서한을 분석해, 장기 관점·가치투자 원칙·투자자와의 이해관계 정렬·자사주 매입과 주식 발행의 가치 효과 등 개인 투자자에게 유용한 교훈을 정리한 2부작 중 2편이다. 첫째, 장기 관점이 핵심이다. 버리는 가치투자자로서 내재가치보다 싸게 사면 결국 시장이 따라온다고 믿었고, 그 시점은 1개월일 수도 5년일 수도 있다고 보았다. 그래서 최소 3년, 가능하면 5년 이상으로 성과를 평가해 달라고 투자자에게 반복해서 요구했다. 둘째, 단기 성과에 흔들리지 말라고 강조했다. 초기 두 달 성과가 좋았을 때도 그것을 기대하지 말라고 했고, 단기 손실이나 이익 모두에 과도하게 반응하지 않도록 했다. 장기 복리 수익의 극대화가 어느 한 분기의 수익률 극대화보다 중요하다는 입장이다. 셋째, 이해관계 정렬이 중요하다. 분기별 자산 기준 수수료를 받지 않고, 허들레이트(6%)를 넘는 성과에 대해서만 보상을 받는 구조였다. 또한 자신의 순자산 대부분을 펀드에 투자해 파트너와 동일한 조건으로 운용했다. 넷째, 회계 관점에서 주식 발행과 자사주 매입의 가치 효과를 설명했다. 내재가치보다 높은 가격에 주식을 발행하면 주당 내재가치가 창출되고, 내재가치보다 높은 가격에 자사주를 매입하면 가치가 파괴된다. 이 맥락에서 버리는 주가가 고평가됐을 때 주식을 발행해 현금을 확보하는 전략을 테슬라에 권고한 바 있다고 소개했다. 다섯째, 스톡옵션 보상 프로그램은 옵션 관련 주식이 내재가치보다 높은 가격에 발행되는 가치 창출과 세금 혜택을 함께 따져야 한다고 봤다. 진행자는 버리가 초기에는 매크로 투자자로 알려졌지만, 실제로는 장기 가치투자 방식이었다는 점이 인상적이었다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
Michael Barry Rose to fame as an investor through his short of the U.S housing market in 2008 and 2009 which of course was depicted in the movie The Big Short where Michael Barry was portrayed by Christian Bale recently I stumbled across some of Michael Barry's early letters to investors from the fund that he ran in the early 2000s Scion value fund and having read those letters I still believe that there's a lot in there that applies to investing today and there's information and lessons that can be useful even to the everyday individual investor this video is going to be part two in this two-part series pulling apart some of the lessons from Michael Barry's early letters to investors if you haven't checked out part one in the series already I will leave that linked up in one of the corners here so that you can go and check out that video If you enjoyed this video and would like to see future content and haven't subscribed to the investing on Tom Channel just yet be sure to subscribe to the channel and that way you can catch future content but for now let's get straight into some of these lessons from Michael Perry now there are a few things in these letters that Michael Barry was extremely consistent on and offered and would reinforce to investors quarter after quarter after quarter and his letters and one of those things was really maintaining a very long-term focus with his investment strategy now Michael Barry particularly in these early years of running his fund was a classic value investor he subscribed to sort of the Joel greenblood approach that if you do good valuation and work on individual companies eventually the market will agree with you in the short term the market is a voting machine and in the long term the market is a weighing machine so Michael Barry thought that if he could do good valuation work and buy companies at a substantial discount to what he believed their true intrinsic value to be that eventually the market price would move up to intrinsic value he just really didn't know whether that re-rate up to intrinsic value would happen been an awake a month a year or maybe even three or five years and that is why he really wanted to have a group of investors on board that agreed with the framework and were willing to wait potentially a few years to see genuine outperformance come out of Michael Barry's fund so these are a few things that Barry said throughout his letters uh on that topic of having a long-term approach over periods greater than five years you should rightfully expect the fund to beat the S P 500 handily but in these first two months the fund certainly overreached I trust that you will not hold me to the standard every two months henceforth that was from the very first letter Michael Barry ever wrote in his fund after a good start but a very short period of time he kind of came out the gate really well and was outperforming the market but he obviously didn't want investors to bank on that happening every single quarter and his next quarterly letter he said I fully expect and recommend that members of this investment vehicle judge my performance over a period of five years or greater not five months or less this will prove the most fruitful and enjoyable manner in which to participate in the fund the very next quarter after another period of quite strong returns still in the early days for the fund he said yet I must emphasize once again that while the fund May yield surprising results over short time frames this phenomenon neither concerns me when the results seem cause for lament nor lifts me when the results seem cause for celebration I urge the same reactions in you I fully expect and recommend that members of this investment vehicle judge my performance over a period of five years or greater this will prove the most fruitful and enjoyable manner in which to participate in the fund the very next quarter Michael Barry again said I fully expect and recommend that members of this investment vehicle judge my performance over a period of five years or greater this will prove the most fruitful and enjoyable manner in which to participate in the fund and Michael Barry really just repeated this message over and over again and kind of all his quarterly letters are sometimes exceeded in the exact same words like you did in those couple of examples and sometimes he said it slightly differently and the next quarterly letter he said over the longer term however I continue to recommend evaluation periods in excess of five years and in no circumstances less than three years I expect the fund will show decent outperformance relative to most widely used benchmarks such relative performance will occur largely as a byproduct of my focus on achieving respectable absolute returns and will occur most significantly from the positions of being long Common Stocks that offer super normal appreciation potential over reasonable time frames further he said I am much more concerned with maximizing long-term compounded returns than maximizing the return on any given period whether the period be a month a quarter or a year my job as manager and fellow owner is to allocate the vehicle's Capital to produce the highest absolute return on invested Capital possible while minimizing the risk of permanent loss of capital so I think a lot of people have this maybe idea of Michael Barry and in the head of the guy from The Big Short which he of course is uh and he doesn't look exactly like Christian Bale um but that investment in terms of buying credit default swaps on housing bonds was really unusual by and large Michael Barry at least in the early days of his fund was just long Common Stocks of very undervalued companies at least in his View and in order to execute that strategy successfully you do really have to have a very long-term Focus now the second thing that will really jump out to you or at least it certainly did for me when reading through these letters is a Barry also had a lot of alignment with investors and when I say alignment with his investors I kind of mean it in two different ways he had a fee structure and has fund that very much incentivized uh good performance over the long term he wasn't getting paid management fees for example he didn't get paid one percent of assets under management for example just for breathing and secondly he had a very material amount of his own money directly invested in the fund and invested in the exact same way as his partners and this ion value fund and on that topic this is what Michael Barry had to say to his investors and his very first investor letter he said as you were aware signed Capital does not charge a quarterly asset-based fee and instead relies entirely on its performance as your manager he then went on to add I do not earn an income unless your annual return exceeds six percent net of expenses and when closing out his very first letter to investors he finished up by saying as I write this I personally have over one million dollars invested in the fund you should understand that this amount represents the vast majority of my net worth and the entire amount of my net worth aside from that required for daily living expenses Barry actually then went on to kind of give an update on that statement more than a couple of years later about this you know alignment of interest and being invested alongside the other partners in the fund he said I continue to maintain the vast majority of my net worth and the whole of my family's investment account and the fund and I continue to earn a paycheck only if I achieve a return on your capital in excess of the hurdle rate my interests remain very much aligned with yours so Barry is kind of two from two here with some of the things that I really like to see in an investment manager and you'll see in a lot of the kind of super investors that I follow here on the channel one they have sort of a value-focused strategy and a very long-term mindset kind of wrapped around that core strategy and secondly they have very very strong alignment with the investors and their fund now the third and final thing from the letters that I want to cover in this video is a few different kind of accounting topics that Barry touches on uh one of them is rather complex around the issuance of stock options and it's quite a lot of detail Barry goes into so I won't cover that in this video if you want to check that out please read the letters I will leave that Linked In the description but Barry does talk about kind of an adjacent topic which is to do with issuing shares and also doing share BuyBacks and some of the conditions around that and some of the things that investors should focus on when companies are sort of making adjustments to their share Capital this does tie in quite nicely to the slightly more complex uh stock based compensation and options discussion that Barry has in some of his earlier letters but this is what he had to say on the stock issuance and stock buyback topic to the extent the company is issuing stock at prices and excessive intrinsic value and in numbers and dollar volume in excess of any buyback the company is creating incremental intrinsic value per share to illustrate when an employee exercises an option to buy stock at fifteen dollars the company issues stock at that 15 price and hence receives 15 cash at the same time assume the intrinsic value is ten dollars per share intrinsic value is thus created at a rate of five dollars per share issued note that it does does not matter if the market is currently valuing the stock at twenty dollars per share intrinsic value is created when Shares are issued at a price per share in excess of the intrinsic value per share indeed one could argue that for companies that issued and had exercised many options with high strike prices value was created on a per share basis even though the shares have been issued to employees at seemingly low prices at the time and even though the even greater value creation that could be realized by issuing stock at much higher prevailing market prices is ignored here quote high and quote low are defined relative to intrinsic value per share not relative to prevailing share price now I find this really interesting we always hear value investors talk about the power of sheer BuyBacks we don't often hear value investors uh talk about some of the benefits of issuing stock when their stock price is really high and particularly overvalued and although with a better setting and thinking I'm sure I could have got my head around that concept relatively easily I've never really put a whole lot assignment to thinking about super overvalued companies you know creating intrinsic value from expanding their account and in more recent times this is actually something that Michael Barry has insisted that Tesla should do when their stock price particularly a year or so ago was very very high in relation to at least current earnings and current sales and so on uh he was kind of recommending Tesla should issue a bunch of stock raise a bunch of money and that would really give them an exceptionally strong balance sheet to ensure they have the capital to not only survive but also Thrive and potentially out compete a lot of other similar businesses to sum up his thoughts on stock based compensation options share issuance and share BuyBacks he went on to say when evaluating an options Compensation Program one must weigh the net value creation from a the issuance of excess options related stock at prices higher than intrinsic value and B the tax benefit associated with the program against the net value destruction from a buying stock and market price is higher than the intrinsic value and B issuing option related stock at prices lower than intrinsic value so those are a few more lessons from Barry's early letters to investors and some of the things that I really enjoyed reading about from Michael Barry I really first heard about Barry from watching The Big Short and uh really thought he was more of a macro kind of investor that made these bold predictions about broad economic topics so it's been really refreshing to go back and read some of his earlier letters to investors and see that you know he really invests in a way that's quite similar to what I'm going to try and do personally um so I hope you enjoyed this short little mini series on some of the lessons from an early Michael Barry if you did be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already and I will see you in the next video cheers
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