저자: Tom—출연자명시없음,해설중심영상이라주발언자는채널진행자로판단 · 외국인
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리루(Li Lu)의 히말라야캐피털이 2002년경 BYD에 투자해 약 5,600% 수익을 거둔 것으로 분석한 영상이며, 이는 과거 성과 설명이고 앞으로의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다. 리루와 찰리 멍거, 버크셔 해서웨이(BYD 지분 2008년 매입 후 대부분 보유, 2022년 8~9월 약 8% 감축)의 투자 이력과 게이 스피어(Guy Spear)의 아쿠아마린캐피털 투자 등 투자자 연결고리를 소개한다. BYD는 1995년 설립 후 휴대폰 배터리로 성장했고, 2003년 첫 차, 2008년 첫 전기차를 생산했다. 멍거의 2009년 평가는 BYD를 기술 혁신 기업으로 높이 평가한 내용이다. 2022년 상반기 BYD 전기차+플러그인하이브리드 판매량은 약 64만 1천 대로 테슬라를 넘어섰다고 분석한다. 리루의 지분 매매 추이: 2008년, 2014~2015년 대량 매수, 최근 일부 매도. 매출은 2008년 대비 약 10배 성장했으나 순이익은 변동성이 크다. PER은 2008년 약 9배에서 영상 제작 시점 약 84배로 상승했다. 2002년 IPO 당시 주가는 약 3.4홍콩달러였고, 2016년경 약 40홍콩달러까지 올랐으며, 영상 시점 약 185홍콩달러였다. 리루의 수익률은 최소 4~5배에서 최대 약 67배로 추정된다. 교훈으로 성장하는 사업 선택, 경영진의 역량, 낮은 밸류에이션에서의 매수, 장기 보유의 중요성을 든다. 영상 마지막에는 구독 유도와 주식 경품 이벤트 안내가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
Lilo is most successful and well-known investment ever is in Chinese Electric Vehicle Manufacturer byd short for build your dreams and lilo's Himalaya Capital reportedly had the foresight to invest in byd as early as 2002 before byd had ever produced a single car and win its Core Business was actually in rechargeable batteries since 2002 the stock is up about 5 600 percent or about a 57x return on an initial early 2002 investment and Lilo has also bought byd to the attention of some other pretty well-known investors this is the third and final video and a three-part series here on the channel covering some of lilu's best investments so if you haven't seen part one or two already on the channel be sure to go back and check those out and also subscribe for future content here on the channel now the most notable investor who has joined Lilo in terms of being invested in byd is definitely Charlie Munger and Charlie Munger is likely invested in byd really in three different ways firstly through lilu's fund because manga is an investor in Himalaya Capital secondly through the Daily Journal corporation's stock portfolio and certainly through Berkshire Hathaway via the Berkshire Hathaway energy subsidiary who at the end of 2021 had made 33 times their original investment in byd they turned 232 million dollars into 7.7 billion dollars from 2008 to the end of 2021.
interestingly guy Speer another friend of Lee Lou's is also invested in byd through his fund aquamarine capital and from 2011 to the end of December 2021 guy spear had turned a 5 million investment into 53 million dollars and speaking of guy spear in my last video here on the channel I did say that to celebrate reaching 40 000 subscribers here on the channel know I would give away a copy of this book from guy spear the education of a value investor so I'm doing a quick screen record on my phone here which hopefully you're seeing as well and we're about to pick a random winner and hopefully this random comment that it selects has actually commented aquamarine in the comment in the last video uh as as requested so let's Head Start and see who comes up and we have uh ishan hopefully I'm not butchering your name so ishan if you're watching this video uh congratulations you have won a copy of the education of a value investor so uh just shoot me an email investing with Tom gmail.com and I'll get that all sorted for you now byd is actually so sort of ingrained in the Berkshire Hathaways and value investing ecosystem now largely thanks to lilu that byd questions are actually a somewhat common occurrence now at Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings and many of the senior managers including the byd founder and CEO uh Wang xiaofu have even occasionally attended the Berkshire Hathaway meeting in Omaha Nebraska now the story of long-term growth and success at byd is a pretty incredible one the company was founded in 1995 by still the current CEO I believe Wang Chung Fu and it quickly grew in predominantly the rechargeable battery space and only 10 years later by 2005 live they actually had a massive 50 percent market share globally in mobile phone batteries they had some pretty massive customers at the time Motorola and Nokia and they basically grew by essentially just massively undercutting the competition on price but still you know producing good quality batteries they undercut compenders in the US Germany and Japan and really stole market share very quickly in fact byd didn't even produce its first car until 2003 and it didn't produce its first electric vehicle until 2008 but the experience and rechargeable batteries I'm sure was a bit of a head start for byd and this is what Charlie Munger had to say about the company all the way back in 2009 byd I was founder is only 43 years old is not some early stage venture capital company byd is one of the main manufacturers of the world of the rechargeable lithium battery and it achieved that position from a standing started zero under the leadership of the founder Juan chonfu and they went on into cell phone components and developed a huge position then finally not satisfied with having worked a couple of Miracles one John Fu decided he would go into the automobile business as nearly as I can tell there was Zero experience and Automobiles and from a standing start at zero and with very little capital uh he rapidly was able to create the best-selling single model in China and that's against competition that was Chinese joint ventures with all the major auto companies of the world technological Marvels with Mr capital and so on not some unproven uh highly speculative activity what it is is a is a damn miracle and the electric vehicle component of byd's business so far has been very successful and it really didn't actually take that long in 2009 only one year after selling their very first electric vehicle the EV component of the byd business basically matched their phone components and rechargeable battery uh business in terms of Revenue and only two years later it became their most profitable segment which compared to many of the traditional auto makers kind of Legacy automakers in the US who are really really struggling to make electric vehicles profitably that's a pretty massive feat and this is right back in like 2009-2010 and just to give you a bit of a feel for where byd now ranks in terms of global electric vehicle producers uh let's compare them to the most well-known EV company in the world I'm sure which is Tesla now in the first half of 2022 Tesla sold 565 000 electric vehicles be uid sold 324 000 so their um you know reasonably close in the grand scheme of things to Tesla's scale with electric vehicles but importantly byd does also produce a few plug-in hybrid vehicles as well or more than a few plug-in hybrid vehicles and if you combine the plug-in hybrid and the full electric vehicles of byd they sold 641 000 vehicles in the first half of 2022 which is about 90 000 more than Tesla now like I said right at the start of the video lilu has reportedly been a shareholder in byd as early as 2002.
now unfortunately unlike in the us where we get quarterly 13f data and we can see exactly when super investors are buying and selling we don't really get that type of reporting in China so it's impossible to see exactly what lilo's byd ownership looked like right back in 2002 but fortunately in 20 2005 Lelo actually had a significant enough stake in byd to Warrant substantial shareholder filings in China and since then we've actually been able to see exactly what lilo's been doing in terms of buying and selling and to be frank it's been much more buying than selling in the past 20 years and he's really been a very long-term owner of byd so I'll put him on the screen here at exactly the number of shares and thousands that Himalaya Capital has owned over the years in byd you'll see there was some pretty substantial buying in 2008 a little bit more in 2014 and 2015 and for the first time uh lilu has actually started to sell some byd in the past year or so here is that same purchasing pattern with the stock price overlaid so you can see exactly what was kind of happening to the stock price of byd as lilu was buying and more recently selling and if we look at the overall value of the byd position after lilu has even trimmed a little bit recently it's still massive I mean the biggest investment we see for Lee Lou in the United States is Micron that's about a 600 million dollar or so position and uh byd even after a little bit of selling from lilu is about double the size of that investment at about 1.3 billion dollars so what's actually driven the returns here for lilu and byd has it been good underlying growth in the business or has it just been a massive Improvement in Market sentiment and people just willing to pay you know higher multiples of earnings and sales for byd well the short answer is it's actually been quite a bit of both he's kind of had both of those engines really working in his favor byd the underlying business has grown but the market has also increasingly started to really pay up for byd shares from 2008 through to today byd has grown its revenue from about 4 billion US dollars to about 40 billion US dollars so it's about 10x that's Revenue now it's net income or earnings is much lumpier I think that's partly the nature of byd's fairly low margin business small Improvement or decrease in margins really significantly impacts its earnings but nonetheless earnings have grown they're up about 3.7 x from 2008 going from 220 million to 816 million but like I say uh the earnings for byd is Lumpy I mean just in the last quarter they reported 415 million dollars in net income so overall in terms of Revenue at least byd is about 10 times larger than it was in 2008 and in terms of Market sentiment uh the multiples have definitely expanded the PE ratios have gone up so in 2008 when liloo did most of his buying in byd byd bottomed out at a PE of about nine times earnings and as a recording the video it's about 84 times earnings now again the earnings are pretty volatile for byd so I wouldn't read a huge amount into the exact number there but even if we smooth out the lumps and use something like a price to sales multiple the price to sales multiple bottomed out in 2008 at about 0.6 and today byd trades at about 2.2 times sales so whichever way you really slice it the business sure has grown a lot but there's also been some big improvements and investors willing to pay up for byd shares so exactly what kind of return has liloo captured in byd stock well we don't really know what happened kind of pre-2005 before we got those substantial uh ownership filings when we were able to see much more detail on when they lose buying and selling but what we do know is that byd in 2002 ipo'd at about 3.4 Hong Kong dollars now the Hong Kong dollar is actually pegged to the US dollar so that allows us really just to look purely at what the stock price has done uh lilo's results will not have been impacted significantly By changes in foreign currency for example so if he did buy some early shares at 3.4 Hong Kong dollars he's done exceptionally well but just looking at the timing of his other purchases he may have paid actually as high as about 20 to 40 Hong Kong dollars between 2014 and 2016.
it looks like he started selling a little bit in the 220 to 230 Hong Kong dollar range and as of recording byd she is set at about 185 Hong Kong dollars so it looks like Lilo did actually sell pretty close to the peak the the little amounts of byd that he has sold and he could have potentially purchased it as early as 2002 you know three or four Hong Kong dollars per share so that would imply that the highest possible return laylu has made on some of his years is about a 67x return and are the worst possible return Lilo could have made which is probably his purchases in 2014 to 2016 would still be about a four or five x return so whichever way you slice it the return is somewhere between amazing and off the charts now in terms of a quick update on what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are doing with their byd shares through Berkshire Hathaway and Berkshire purchased their 225 million shares in 2008 and basically haven't touched them at all until uh just in the last month or two so in August and September we actually saw Berkshire start to sell a few of their byd shears and it looks like overall in August and September 2022 in total they have reduced their shareholding by about eight percent now in terms of lessons from this investment and byd from Lee Lou there are really four key points that I picked up and that I think we can learn from the first is that he simply invested in a great growing business byd has 10xed its Revenue since 2008 and much more than 10x since lilu probably got in in 2002 or 2003.
if you've ever read 100 Baggers the book by Christopher Meyer he will talk about kind of two engines for exponential kind of multibagger returns and one of them is just huge growth on the underlying earnings of the business the second one is a bit of multiple expansion always helps as well and lilu certainly captured some of that with byd the second thing is gifted management we heard some of the comments from Charlie Munger about you know the management team at byd and it's clear that they made a pretty massive transition from you know mobile phone components and rechargeable batteries to electric vehicles and it's really been very successful so gifted management has most certainly helped thirdly although lilu has you know benefited from higher PE ratios and higher price to sales ratios over time he did pay a reasonable price he probably bought most of his shares around 10 times earnings in 2008 and that offered a lot of downside protection you know should the business not have had this huge home run kind of growth and earnings and finally the power of just holding for a long period of time I think a lot of people are really under appreciate how hard it can be sometimes to do that and lilu has probably owned his first by D shares for about 20 years now and throughout that time the stock has been pretty volatile there's been years where it's been down and flat for you know a pretty significant period of time and he also you know didn't have an anchoring bias he probably purchased his initial shares at three or four Hong Kong dollars and he probably paid as high as about 40 Hong Kong dollars in 2016 you know 13 or 14 years after his first purchase so lots to learn here from lilu's investment in byd I do hope you enjoyed the video if you did please subscribe to the channel so that you can catch future content as well and I hope you enjoyed this three-part series Ensemble Lulu's best and Investments if there's any other investors you'd like me to do a short you know best investment series on here on the channel let me know down in the comments section below
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