저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 블록체인·비트코인 등 파괴적 혁신이 가속되며 장기적으로 시장가치가 크게 성장할 것이라고 낙관하나, 1~3개월 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다. 혁신 플랫폼 전망: AI, 로보틱스, DNA 시퀀싱, 에너지 저장, 블록체인 등 5개 플랫폼과 14개 기반 기술의 시장가치가 향후 10년간 연 30% 복합성장할 것으로 전망. 전기차·에너지: 전기차의 총소유비용은 이미 내연기관보다 낮으며, 2년 내 가격이 동급이 되고 이후 30% 이상 저렴해질 것으로 봄. 내연기관은 원가 하락 여지가 없는 상품화 산업으로 규정. 태양광 지붕: 테슬라식 태양광 지붕이 주택담보대출로 금융되며 확산될 것으로 봄. 비트코인 채굴과 재생에너지: 비트코인 채굴이 잉여 재생에너지를 흡수해 전력망 수익성을 높이고, 결과적으로 재생에너지 전환을 가속할 것이라는 ARK 리서치 결과 제시. 중국의 채굴 금지 후 미국이 최대 수혜국(채굴의 약 34.5%). 기술·사회 영향: AI와 생명공학 결합으로 겸상적혈구병·베타지중해빈혈·ATTR 등 희귀질환의 기능적 치료가 가능해졌다고 언급. 기술 악용 우려에는 규제·보안 전문가 역할을 강조. 화폐 혁명: 비트코인을 최초의 글로벌·탈중앙 화폐 시스템으로 규정하고, 엘살바도르 등 신흥국의 채택 확대를 전망. 중국은 디지털 위안화에 집중. 금융 혁명: 탈중앙금융(DeFi)이 중개기관을 대체할 것이라 주장하며, 규제당국의 감시 강화는 언급하되 영향은 제한적으로 봄. 리스크: 규제 당국의 DeFi 조사 증가가 언급됨. 단기 가격 전망은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
and in the meantime or in the process they will be accelerating the shift towards renewables ironically given the way people talk about bitcoin in this interview kathy wood the ceo of arc invest talked about her latest predictions and analysis for bitcoin and the crypto market she talked about the latest advancements in bitcoin mining and how they can affect bitcoin's price trajectory in the near future she also talked about blockchain web 3 and the next money revolution also i'd just like to remind you that we're giving away 100 to a random subscriber at the end of this month to participate in it you must subscribe to our channel turn on post notifications like this video and leave a comment in the comments section below good luck now let's look at her interview yes uh in a broad sense we have never been uh like this moment in history in terms of the amount of change that is about to it's already started we feel the ground as you just said shifting underneath us it has already started you know five major innovation platforms evolving at the same time you have to go back to the early 1900s to see anything like it you had three platforms then you had telephone electricity and automobile today you have dna sequencing you heard it on the conference dna sequencing robotics energy storage artificial intelligence blockchain technologies all of them are an exponential growth trajectories and they are converging with one another in massively important ways and profound ways and they're going to deliver we believe if you just take a look at the technologies themselves over the next 10 years we believe the market cap associated with these five platforms and the 14 underlying technologies is going to scale at a 30 compound annual rate of return these are astonishing rates of return and if you're if you're a a good stock picker you'll probably do even better than that if you're focused only on innovation it is going to change for two reasons uh beyond the environmental concerns uh one the technologies are ready the kind of battery technology artificial intelligence uh and uh and uh robotics those three actually that's a convergence taking place in the transportation field whether you're talking about autonomous vehicles ultimately or drones for parcels or food delivery and so forth so yes you're absolutely right these worlds are the digital and the physical world finally are converging because the technology's ready and just as important the costs are low enough the costs were prohibitively high before especially when it came to electric vehicle sort of battery technology but thanks to elon musk and i would say also to the chinese who are moving very quickly in this direction that is no longer true in fact the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle most people don't know this is lower today than that for a gas powered vehicle most people just look at the sticker price and we think in in two years that they they will be the same price and then a few years after that we believe that electric vehicles will be 30 plus lower in price so these cost declines continue in emerging technologies whereas the internal combustion engine is a very mature technology so it is not in la uh enjoying any more cost declines they ended a long time ago right that's a very commodity it's a commoditized industry and i i remember when china made a decision that this was one of its goals to dominate that sector that's when the commoditization began but there's another thing and i think what will change uh the the picture are solar roofs like tesla has designed and the reason we think that's going to uh proliferate proliferate solar over time in a more comprehensive way is because the roof will be uh part of the house that's how it'll be financed instead of consumer installment debt and cold calling and so forth so it will just become a part of our residential infrastructure and it will become a part of our mortgage uh so it'll be a very different uh adoption cycle than we think that we've seen uh thus far we can add another wrinkle here uh part of our research uh which we talked about during the conference which is you know with the way the electrical grid is evolving we could see bitcoin mining become a part of that infrastructure so that here in st petersburg for example you know we fill up our energy storage units uh quite easily because it's so sunny here the overflow could go to bitcoin mining which would uh which would accelerate the shift towards renewables because the whole ecosystem will become so much more profitable over time well i think china banning mining was very helpful in that regard and so the u.s was the biggest beneficiary of that i think 34 5 of the mining now is taking place here in the united states uh and uh kazakhstan uh also uh so we're we're seeing uh people like elon musk and jack dorsey who both care an awful lot about the environment trying to figure this problem out and in fact the what i just mentioned about bitcoin becoming a part of bitcoin mining becoming a part of a utility ecosystem came out of research that we at arc had done led by brett winton our director of research and uh yasin almandra who's our lead crypto analyst working with square we were able to dimension uh how much uh that solar and wind would proliferate how much faster it would proliferate with bitcoin mining as a part of the ecosystem as opposed to without it uh and uh i think uh i think uh that research is starting to bear fruit we're seeing utility ecosystems uh you know they're they're getting the plot and they're they're looking for new ways to profit and in the meantime or in the process they will be accelerating the shift towards renewables ironically given the way people talk about bitcoin yes well first uh let's start by agreeing that a lot of people are worried and i think that's good news half of the solution is understanding the problem and i think the reason we're understanding the problem uh maybe a little faster than would otherwise have been the case and and understanding it uh more broadly is because china wants to win at this game and uh and and they are moving up the league tables in terms of semiconductor uh chip manufacturing uh focusing on ai uh just generally uh from our point of view and what we seek to encourage is innovation that solves problems and makes the world a better place typically that is what it does now uh is technology used for nefarious purposes all the time all the time uh and uh and having you know cyber security experts out there focused on this having the government really focused on this i think is um is is good news is good news but in terms of uh solving the world's problems we see a i converging with each of the platforms including blockchain technology we see it critical to autonomous taxi systems and drones which are going to lower the cost of transportation and make it much more convenient than it is right now and much safer much safer we see it in the genomics space the convergence of dna sequencing and artificial intelligence and and gene editing and other gene therapies the convergence of those actually curing disease we are now have functional cures for sickle cell disease beta thalassemia and a rare disease called attr and that latest one was an intellia gene editing solution that was done in the body not not done by pulling cells out of the body we are curing disease could not happen without artificial intelligence uh and in the case of uh blockchain technology i think we're going to see some very interesting we're already seeing some very interesting convergences between blockchain technology and uh and asset management in the form of hedge funds uh that employ data scientists to try and beat all the averages out there so um i i don't think we'll be able to get away from artificial intelligence i think we need to get on the right side of change here make sure uh that we've got the right uh experts focused on the potential problems but then run with the with the solutions that that it offers uh well in big ideas we describe this by by using uh the term revolutions there are three revolutions taking place simultaneously right now one is a money revolution one is a financial services revolution and one is a next generation internet revolution so on the money revolution bitcoin and and ether to some extent but bitcoin surely it is the most secure network out there um is the first and each one of these words is really important the first global private decentralized uh monetary system ever invented and it is going to have profound ramifications just ask the people in el salvador and uh recently president buchelli of el salvador had a conversation with president erdogan of turkey because they are going through a currency crisis and so i think the emerging markets are going to adopt uh this kind of monetary system increasingly because their own monetary systems uh very dependent often on the dollar or on the euro or someone else who does not control uh the population they want to they they would prefer not to be dependent on politicians this doesn't involve politicians uh so that's the monetary revolution and we think that um it's going to proliferate faster emerging markets are very interested except for china of course they're interested in making the digital yuan uh the reserve currency of asia and that's fully controlled by people uh what i'm discussing is not the second revolution is in the financial services industry we do believe that d5 decentralized finance is going to usurp the role of most financial services companies today most financial services companies are middlemen and d5 takes the middlemen out of the equation you know in the early early days some of some of your viewers may know of lending club and it took some middlemen out of the equation was able to offer higher rates to savers and lower rates to borrowers and became very very popular very quickly we'll put that on steroids that's what we have going on in d5 and again it's a global movement all of these are global they are not um they're not being governed by any particular nationality now regulators have uh are now turning their sites on d5 pretty aggressively you saw in the chart how you know at least once a month twice a month in the last year a regulator somewhere around the world has said hey we've got to investigate this
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