저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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결론: 드러켄밀러는 인플레이션이 쉽게 잡히지 않고 2023년 경기침체가 올 가능성이 높다고 보며, 인플레 강세장에서는 비트코인, 약세장에서는 금이 낫다고 본다. 인플레이션과 경기 전망: 역사적으로 인플레이션이 5% 넘으면 경기침체 없이 잡힌 적이 없다고 언급한다. 현재 CPI 8%를 잡으려면 기준금리가 8% 이상이어야 하지만 자산버블과 시장 피해 때문에 그 정도까지는 가지 않을 것으로 본다. 연착륙 전망은 가능성은 있으나 개연성은 낮다고 한다. 경기침체 시점: 2023년 어느 시점에 경기침체가 올 것을 강하게 가정하나 초반인지 후반인지는 모른다고 밝힌다. 초과저축은 약 1.5~2조 달러로 추정되며 이것이 소진되는 데 시간이 걸릴 수 있다고 한다. 분석 방법: 전통 경제학자처럼 고용 등 거시지표를 쓰지 않고, 주식시장이 펀더멘털을 6~12개월 선행한다고 보며 선행업종(주택, 자본재 등)과 후행업종을 기업 탐방으로 분석한다. 채권시장 신호는 중앙은행의 채권 매입으로 왜곡되어 최근 10여 년간 유효하지 않았다고 본다. 비트코인·금 전략: 암호화폐와 나스닥의 상관관계가 강해 지표로 보고 있다. 블록체인이 5~10년 내 경제의 실질적 동력이 될 것으로 보나, 본인이 확신을 갖고 베팅할 대상은 아니라고 한다. 인플레 강세장이면 금보다 비트코인, 스태그플레이션형 약세장이면 금을 보유하고 싶다고 말한다. 리스크: 경기침체 시점 예측은 추측이라고 명시하며, 과거처럼 높은 수익률을 내고 있지는 않다고 인정한다. 출연자 전망: 드러켄밀러 본인은 2023년 경기침체 가능성을 높게 보고 있다. 연령·투자 스타일: 1953년생으로 69세이며 예측력은 과거와 비슷하다고 본다. 다만 공격적 투자는 예전만큼 하지 않는다고 한다.
다듬은 글
that if you believe we're going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward if it's in a bull phase you want to own bitcoin in this interview stanley druckenmiller talks about his bitcoin trading strategies he talked about the best time to invest in kryptos and when you should strictly stay away from the market he also spoke about recession and the short-term future trajectory of the stock market also i'd just like to remind you that we're giving away 100 to a random subscriber at the end of this month to participate in it you must subscribe to our channel turn on post notifications like this video and leave a comment in the comment section below good luck now let's look at his interview well that's what history says it's there's an interesting historical fact which in fact i think is going to be violated but two undefeated records are number one once inflation gets above five percent it's never come down unless uh fed funds have gotten above the cpi well since the cpi is eight that would call for a fed funds rate of above eight frankly i don't think we'll get there because the extent of the asset bubble and the damage that would be done think about the fact that we have virtually no bankruptcies and look at this probably the most disruptive period since the 1890s i don't need to tell a founder of stripe that but if you look across the landscape there should have been many many many bankruptcies which have been buried by qe so if in fact fed funds ever got to eight percent which by the way i don't think is going to happen um the destruction would be quite material the other the other statistical fact is once a once inflation's got above five percent to use your word it's never been tamed without a recession so if you're predicting a soft landing you're going against decades of history it could happen anything's possible but i don't think it's probable and the same is currently eight year-over-year um i actually think we are going to violate history and it is going to come down i don't know how far but without that happening the second one i think history is going to win that's once inflation gets about five percent it's never come down without a recession and i think a recession is in the cards i just don't know when we have about depending on who you listen to a trillion and a half to two trillion of excess savings now so it may take some time to work through that savings but given the extent of the asset bubble and the destruction in the markets given what's going on in ukraine giving zero covert policy in china i don't take a lot of comfort from that so i assume um and i'm pretty strongly assumed we're going to have a recession sometime in 23.
i just don't know whether it's going to be in the early part or the later part and again um it's a guess it's not a fact yeah uh one of the ironies of my style maybe it's because i was a dropout of a phd program in economics at university of michigan is that i don't use what traditional economists use to predict the economy which is things like employment and a bunch of macro top-down statistics in fact i started my career as a bank and a chemical analyst and over time i learned that the inside of the stock market had a very very present message about future economic activity and for whatever reason stocks tend to lead the fundamentals by somewhere between 6 and 12 months and you can even go beyond that and look at industries that lead the economy and industries that lag the economy the obvious one that everyone knows about is housing has traditionally been looked at as a leading in this industry retail has a slightly capital goods lag and what we've done historically is actually even though you refer to me as a macro investor and many people have is we do the macro by a comp compilation of listening to companies and doing a bottoms-up analysis of companies that lead the economy and come and i'm sorry industries that lead the economy in industries that lag the economy and if the leading industries are turning up or turning down that's a signal and that's worked beautifully historically the other signal which i have found quite prescient for markets is the bond market um unfortunately the last 10 or 11 years the bond market has not signaled anything because the central banks took it upon themselves to manipulate bond prices which to me is the 10-year treasury has sort of been the most important price in the world and they took that price out of the equation as a sigler i remember last summer when certain forecasters had a different forecast of my own kept talking about well the bond market is saying this the bond market is saying that when the tenure dropped all the way from 170 to 115 which by the way i did not anticipate but the bond market wasn't saying anything what was going on is central banks were buying trillions of dollars and manipulating the price of bonds so there was no signal i don't think you get that tainting if you look inside the stock market you could get it in the stock market as whole but if you do this approach where you look at industries and you which lead which lag and you put the puzzle together it's been pressing over time and it's certainly allowed us to consistently the last 20 or 30 years outperform the fed in terms of economic forecasts um i don't know whether i'm seeing it but i expect it to you can't take you can't build over 2 trillion in wealth in purchasing power and then take a trillion of it out and not matter john i also have high frequency um signals and there certainly seems to be a strong correlation between crypto and the nasdaq i don't think it takes a genius to figure out why so i'm looking at as an indicator that way crypto um you know everything that that charlie munger says about it i'm sympathetic to everything that says bill miller says about it and so it's sympathetic too so i think that's a movie that has yet to be played out and one that i don't want to bet on in conviction but i will be very surprised if blockchain isn't a real force in our economy say five years from now to 10 years from now and not a major disruptor with with companies that will um have been founded between now and then that'll do very well but that will also challenge things like our our financial companies and do a lot of disruption so i find crypto interesting my 69th birthday is in a couple weeks i'm probably too old um to compete intellectually with the young people in this space but i'm certainly monitoring it i think a younger stan would be diving into everything more energetically than i'm talking to um it's age is a funny thing i don't um i feel my predictive power and forecasting power is as good as it's ever been the last three to five years i'm certainly not making 30 net returns per year like when i had clients so i think it's two things yes um i think younger people understand new asset classes better but b i'm just not playing anything as aggressively as i used to i'm not sure why other than nasdaq type risk playtakers are the ones that stand to play in bitcoin and curmudgeons that are gold bugs and want the world to fall apart playing gold but there's no question and this i've watched and it's gone on long enough now that i believe it that if you believe we're going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward if it's in a bull phase you want to own bitcoin but if it's in a bare phase for other assets you want to own gold and i think i just articulated the reason but sometimes john i don't care um this is going long on enough that i'm starting to believe what i'm observing and for sure if i think we're going to have an inflationary bull market um i'd want to own bitcoin more than gold and if i thought we're going to have a bear market you know stagflation type thing i'd want to own gold doesn't mean i'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward from this point
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