저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄 결론: 피터 린치는 시장 하락기에도 장기 보유 원칙을 강조하며, 단기 시장 예측은 할 수 없다고 말한다. 과거 경험: 1987년 10월 폭락 당시 아일랜드 골프 여행 중이었고, 하루 580포인트 폭락으로 펀드가 약 120억 달러에서 80억 달러로 줄었다고 회고한다. 하락장 대응 원칙: 13년간 시장이 9번 하락했을 때 마젤란펀드도 9번 모두 하락했다고 말하며, 하락은 흔한 일이므로 당황하지 말라고 강조한다. 투자 수익 구조: 한 주식에 1000달러를 투자하면 잃을 수 있는 최대 금액은 1000달러지만, 맞았을 때는 5000~2만 달러까지 벌 수 있다고 설명한다. 모든 투자를 맞힐 필요 없이 4번 중 1번만 맞혀도 된다고 주장한다. 보유 원칙: 회사가 잘 하고 있다면 추가 매수하거나 최소한 팔지 말라고 조언하며, 좋은 회사를 파는 것을 비극이라고 표현한다. 시장 전망: 동전 던지기로 올해 또는 내년에 S&P500이 4000에 도달할지 예측하는 장면을 보여주며, 시장 방향은 아무도 모른다는 입장을 밝힌다. 앞면이 나오면 다음 해 상승을 의미한다고 농담하며 그것이 자신이 아는 전부라고 말한다. 출연자 전망: 단기 방향 예측은 하지 않으며, 시장 예측 대신 장기 보유와 기업 실적 중심의 투자를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
on 13 years the market went down nine times and every time the mark went down magellan went down it was nine for nine and uh you know because it's it's great it's very important it's another one of these numbers you had to write down if you put a thousand dollars in a stock all you can lose is a thousand i've done that several times and uh but if you're right you can make five thousand ten thousand twenty thousand so this business you don't have to be right one out two times you could be right one out of four it's a long time the times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job and you add to it or at least you don't sell it which is a terrible tragedy so you can make more money on the upside so i just i just rolled those out and i will now flip a coin to tell you where the market will go to 4 000.
this year or next year october has always been a special month i remember in 1987 i was very uh you know i was very convinced that mark was a no it was not not in trouble and i didn't worry about things and karen and i had planned this great uh golf vacation to ireland and we're gonna visit one course and save a little house and visit another go along the west coast of ireland and play golf and we left on a thursday night and uh the market went down 55 points that day which was not too good and um the next day we got to ireland because the time difference we completed our day and i get back to hotel and i called in the market going down 112 on friday i said to carolyn uh you know i think if the if the mark goes down on monday uh you know we're gonna have to go back and uh and so we might as well we stayed there for the weekend and uh and on monday the market went down 580 points and my fund went from uh i think 12 billion to 8 billion and uh that gets your attention you know when uh two working days you know i said yeah the end of this week i'd be uh have no fun now there wasn't a lot i could do i mean here i was on monday because the market uh didn't open you know by 12 o'clock it was in ireland it was still uh seven o'clock in new york so we did spend that day and we uh we did we played around golf in the morning and we went somewhere and so watch the market uh deteriorate and uh and uh i did come back there wasn't nothing i could do i mean just nothing i do about it but i think my shareholders they call up and they said what's lynch doing they say well he's on the sixth hole and he's uh you know he's even par up to now but he's in a trap this could be you know this could be a triple bogey here this could be a could be a big inning and uh i don't i don't think that's exactly what they want to hear though so i could do something about this damn thing so i came back home and suffered with everybody else and and uh fortunately uh i was very consistent uh my uh the market went down when i ran magellan on 13 years the market went down nine times and every time the mark went down magellan went down i was nine for nine and uh you know because it's it's very it's very important it's another one of these numbers you gotta write down if you put a thousand dollars in a stock all you can lose is a thousand i've done that several times and uh but if you're right you can make five thousand ten thousand twenty thousand so in this business you don't have to be right one out two times you could be right one out of four it's a long time the times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job and you add to it or at least you don't sell it which is a terrible tragedy so you can make more money on the upside so i just i just roll those out and i'll now flip a coin to tell you where the market will go to 4 000.
this year or next year heads means it goes up is a two-headed coin the market will go up in the next year that's it that's all i ever know about you
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