저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜덤은 현재 시장이 3시그마 수준의 '슈퍼 버블'에 진입했으며 이 버블이 터지면 큰 경제적 고통이 올 것이라고 경고한다. 슈퍼 버블과 일반 버블의 차이: 일반 버블은 2시그마(약 35년마다 발생), 슈퍼 버블은 3시그마(약 100년에 한 번이 정상이나 실제로는 훨씬 자주 발생) 수준의 추세 이탈이다. 슈퍼 버블은 1929년처럼 자산을 크게 날릴 수 있다. 버블 붕괴 시 경제 영향: 주식 버블(2000년형)은 자산효과로 소비를 위축시키지만, 주택 버블과 결합하면(2008년형) 주가가 50% 하락하는 등 훨씬 큰 피해가 온다. 현재 미국 주택은 가구소득 대비 2006~2008년 버블 때보다 더 고평가되었고, 지난 1년간 지수가 20% 급등해 신고점을 찍었다. 장기투자자 관점: 주식은 장기적으로 좋은 수익을 주지만, 1929년은 실질 회복에 약 25년(1954년), 2000년은 13년, 일본은 1989년 고점을 아직 회복하지 못했다. 버블 붕괴 후 긴 기다림을 견디기 어려워 많은 투자자가 중도에 보수적으로 바뀐다. 매도 전략: 그랜덤은 2000년과 일본 시장에서 일찍 매도를 권고했으며, 2000년 당시 미국 주식 비중을 1998년 중반부터 줄이라고 권했다. 완전 현금화는 지나치다고 보며, 부분적 축소 전략을 추천한다. 원자재·채권: 유가는 배럴당 88달러로 고평가, 실질금리는 역사상 최저 수준이라 채권도 고평가 상태다. 결론: 주식과 채권이 모두 고평가라 전통적 60/40 포트폴리오는 쓸모가 없다고 본다.
다듬은 글
if the super bubble bursts as you predict it will what happens what happens to the economy what does history tell us some bubbles are very specialized to u.s growth stocks like 2000 and they and they hurt there is a wealth effect people lose money they they pull back on their spending but they don't hurt anywhere near as much as when you combine that with a housing bubble so in 2008 where we had the only housing bubble in american history that burst and the stock market came down 50 percent in sympathy what if i'm a long-term investor say running a pension fund or managing my own 401k which i should add i don't but what if i'm one of those people and i look at history and history tells me that over time independent or including crashes stocks deliver a handsome return and if i just stay in the market i'll get that return whether it's seven percent or eight percent or nine percent or ten percent over time you know if you could set your dial for fifty years and throw the key away that might make some sense but let me remind you that in 1929 you didn't get back in real terms until about 1954.
that's a long wait in 2000 you didn't get back for 13 years by modern standards that's a pretty long wait and in japan which is really the granddaddy of both bubbles land and stocks they are not back to their 1989 peak today that is a very very long wait so if you think you can stand it for 10 or 20 or even 30 years be my guest but history says a lot of you will not stand it a lot of you will become more conservative uh deep into this kind of correction and what about the real sour grapes critics the ones who say you're just a broken clock that's only right twice a day we have a relatively humble measure of success and that is at some future date if you got out when i said get out you will be glad it doesn't mean you won't suffer in the meantime but at some future date you will be glad that worked in japan we were very early but if you'd gotten out when we got out and you'd suffered as the japanese market went up you would still have made and saved a lot of money on the round trip the same in 2000 we would basically recommending that you ease up on on u.s equities by mid 98 and that was a hell of a rally and that was brutally painful but it was still a level where you made tons of money by 2002 the market was much lower than that why doesn't getting out mean for gmo included mean liquidating going to cash i think commercially it's too extreme to be brutally honest and secondly if you can execute the strategy that i described there is a really respectable chance that you will make money you say that the bubble you described back in january of 2021 has further inflated into a super bubble and i'm curious to know i think others would be too what's the difference between a standard bubble and a super bubble a standard bubble we defined over 20 years perhaps 25 years ago as a two sigma statistical event it's just a measure of of how much of an outlier you are so you have a historical deviation from trend yeah you have you have a price series of the s p you can calculate a trend uh statistics 101 is not difficult and you can work out how far away from trend you are and a two sigma is the kind of deviation that should occur every 44 years and because we're a little wilder and less efficient than we should be it occurs every 35 years it's not bad we meaning human beings we basically species that's a huge awesome species every 35 years it was a little closer than i expected uh back then but every 35 years feels about right won a career twice a lifetime that feels like a pretty decent definition of a bubble and a three sigma should occur every hundred years now we as i like to say we do crazy pretty well as a species so they occur much more two or three times more often than they should uh they they they're out of kilter much more than than two sigma so two sigma you can have some fairly standard bubbles they they they give you a certain amount of pain thirty forty fifty percent pain super bubbles can really wipe you out like 1929 did and that's where we are now we we entered a few months ago into three sigma territory super bubble territory and the other great risk is last year we also entered bubbles in real estate so this is a very dangerous year that we've just had if the super bubble bursts as you predict it will what happens what happens to the economy what does history tell us some bubbles are very specialized to u.s growth stocks like 2000 and they and they hurt there is a wealth effect people lose money they they pull back on their spending but they don't hurt anywhere near as much as when you combine that with a housing bubble so in 2008 where we had the only housing bubble in american history that burst and the stock market came down 50 percent in sympathy then you're talking serious damage to the economy through the income effect because this time we have as a multiple of family income us housing suddenly is more overpriced than it was ever in the housing bubble of 2006 to 2008 it's and and they got there this last year since we last spoke the biggest increase 20 percent that the u.s housing market index has ever had has taken it to a new high and they are in the us still much cheaper than canada australia and new zealand london paris etc so that is a global event that could cause enormous pain so we have a housing problem we have a stock market bubble like 2000 we have overpriced commodities oil is 88 and and we have of course the lowest real rates in the history of map if bonds are overpriced and stocks are overpriced does that make the traditional 60 40 balanced portfolio useless absolutely useless you
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