Learning From The Past Market Crashes | Howard Marks

요약 보기

2008년 금융위기 당시 공포에 휩쓸리지 않고 사이클을 이해하는 것이 중요하다는 교훈을 전달한다. 2008년 리먼 브라더스 파산 후 시장이 폭락하며 금융 세계가 끝날지 모른다는 공포가 확산됐고, 유동성이 말랐다. Marks는 세상이 끝난다고 가정하면 투자 판단이 불가능하며, 대부분 세상은 끝나지 않는다고 주장한다. 투자했는데 세상이 끝나면 어차피 상관없고, 투자하지 않았는데 세상이 끝나지 않으면 일을 못 한 것이라는 단순한 계산을 제시한다. Oaktree는 2008년 마지막 15주 동안 주당 약 6억 5천만 달러, 총 약 100억 달러를 투자했다. 당시에는 신중함이나 선별보다 돈과 실행력이 필요했다고 설명한다. 역사를 읽고 사이클을 이해하면 감정적 영향을 줄이는 데 도움이 된다는 점도 강조한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you know one of the hopes is that if you read history if you if you read the book if you understand cycles you will be able to reduce the emotional influences at that time and cut through them and and maybe we'll just say keep your wits about you so we concluded in late 08 after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers put the markets into free fall that uh you know uh will the will the financial world end or not to have been in the investment business in 08 and to have the experience of 74 you had to be working by definition 34 years but the truth of the matter is that the investment business was terrible in the decade of the 70s you couldn't get a job in the 70s i know people classmates of mine from grad school who wanted to go into investment business but rather than get out in 69 when i did they got out in seven they couldn't get a job in the investment business for their whole lives and they dug in in other fields but the point is you had to have your job in the 60s and that means by 08 you had to be working more than 40 years how many people worked more than 40 years so by definition the pool of people with the with the recognition of the past pattern is is very small and you know clearly we ran into uh very difficult problems the over investment on high leverage in the subprime products in 0.56 um caused the you know the loss of some of the most important banks and and uh investment banks and people started talking about the end of the world and uh security prices melted down loan prices melted down and activity froze because everybody was uncertain will there be a tomorrow if i buy anything today will it be a market tomorrow will it have any value tomorrow and all liquidity dried up and as i say people were talking about the end of the world and it was the most pronounced cycle that that that we've lived through uh but still there was really no reason i mean i i kept thinking about what roosevelt said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself people were just afraid they weren't afraid of anything rational they were just afraid and what you had to do is you had to keep your wits and you know one of the hopes is that if you read history if you if you read the book if you understand cycles you will be able to reduce the emotional influences at that time and cut through them and and maybe we'll just say keep your wits about you so we concluded in late 08 after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers put the markets into free fall that you know will the will the financial world end or not and what we said was that it's hard to predict the end of the financial world if you conclude that the financial world will end it's hard to have any idea what to do and most of the time the financial world doesn't end we also made a very simple calculation should we buy or not well if we invest and the financial world ends kind of doesn't matter but if we don't invest and the financial world doesn't end then we didn't do our job so by that you know here we are in an environment where really people had no idea what was coming next and and we're talking about the end of the world and i thought the analysis was rather simple that we had to buy so at oak tree we invested 650 million dollars a week in the last 15 weeks of of uh 08 that's about 10 billion and that's really all you had to do it almost didn't matter what you did as long as you bought and it was a point in time in the cycle and these points in time come along every once in a while where you don't need conservatism caution risk control discipline patience or selectivity you need money and the nerve to spend it and if you had money and nerve to spend it in in late 08 in the credit market or early 09 in the stock market you've made a ton of money and by playing that cycle you