저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 현재는 거대 버블이 꺼지는 국면이며, 미국 주식 비중을 줄이고 저평가 국가·종목과 현금을 선호해야 한다는 주장. 미국 시장 구조: 지난 20년간 PER은 평균보다 56% 높고 이익률은 과거 50~60년 대비 30~35% 높았다. 기업 집중도와 독점(FANG 등)이 심화돼 이익에는 좋지만 성장에는 나쁘며, 정부가 규제를 움직이기 시작했다고 진단. 자산 배분: 미국 주식을 꼭 보유해야 한다면 재무가 탄탄한 고품질주 위주로 선택. 신흥국 주식과 비교적 싼 선진국이 더 나은 선택이며, 신흥국은 미국 리스크 등 과잉 부담이 있고 원자재는 가격이 높아 양날의 검이라고 평가. 호주 주식은 싸지는 않지만 끔찍하지도 않다고 언급(전문가 아님). 금리·인플레이션: 금리 상승과 인플레, 노동력 부족, 성장 둔화가 겹치는 국면으로 골디락스 시기가 끝나고 있다고 봄. 미국 증시 하락(crash)이 시작됐다는 전제 하에 대응 조언 제시. 디지털 자산: 암호화폐 자체는 가치 저장 수단이 아니며 비트코인은 실질적 쓸모 없이 가격이 심리에 의존하는 '허구'라고 비판. 블록체인 기술은 인터넷처럼 쓰일 수 있으나 그 가치는 현금흐름 기반으로 평가해야 한다고 주장. 비트코인 변동성이 크고 금 등 전통 저장 수단과 비교가 안 된다고 봄(금은 수천 년 검증된 안정성 언급). 투자 조언: 비싼 시장·비싼 주식 회피, 가치와 저평가 중시, 저렴한 국가와 종목 탐색, 현금 일부 보유, 그리고 버블 말기의 FOMO(소외 공포) 경계. 본인이 과거 버블에서 큰돈을 벌었다가 전부 날린 경험을 언급하며 시청자가 그 실수를 피하길 권고.
다듬은 글
we've never seen uh bigger profits the concentration in each industry has increased and the fangs that are remarkable companies are in their own way instant monopolies so the monopolistic of of our economy today and somewhat around the world has increased this is very good for profits it's not so good for growth and the governments are beginning to twitch a bit so the big question jeremy is what should investors be doing against this backdrop of super bubbles what assets should they be owning if you if you have to own u.s stocks you should earn high quality stocks that are in good financial shape because this can always spiral in to something of a financial crisis they often do i would emphasize in general though non-us stocks and quite a few countries as i said are not that bad emerging markets has some overhang problems if the us goes and commodities are high priced uh it's a mixed blessing at best for them but they're very very cheap and in the end cheapness usually trumps everything else so emerging markets some of the cheaper developed countries would be very much better idea than a massive holding of u.s equities and what about aussie equities have you seen any good buying opportunities here i i'm not an expert on australian equities um it doesn't look cheap but it doesn't look horrific we're entering this period of rising rates and inflation we're seeing labor shortages and potentially reduced growth is this the goldilocks period over i think it is ending i'm trying to write a paper which is basically the end of the golden era or goldilocks and and and three hungry bears um it's um everything has been different for the 20 years of the 21st century the pe is average not just a little bit higher but 56 higher profit margins averaged 30 35 percent higher than they had in the previous 50 60 years everything seemed to work out corporations got a lot of political power the taxes on capital all dropped tax on dividends tax on interest rates tax on capital gains all came down most of the uh most of the regulatory bodies were somewhat captured by corporations and they've had a golden era we've never seen bigger profits the concentration in each industry has increased and the fangs that are remarkable companies are in their own way instant monopolies so the monopolistic feature of of our economy today and somewhat around the world has increased this is very good for profits it's not so good for growth and the governments are beginning to twitch a bit what's your view on digital assets jeremy should everyone hold some no i i don't think they're assets i think they embed a technology that may turn out rather like the internet to be useful here there and everywhere and when they are useful and when they're making money in the traditional way then you value it like any other money making enterprise but while they just sit there and they go up in price because people are persuaded that they will go up in price it's very much a question of the emperor and his clothes think uh bitcoin in particular it does nothing for anybody and is superseded by a whole generation of smarter and and more effective crypto currencies many of which in their turn do not make money in the traditional way and a few do so i'm sure the idea um embedded in cryptocurrency will be around for perhaps forever but i'm equally certain that most of the value uh today as a store of value is a hoax it is not a store of value everyone can agree that the volatility is massive it goes up and down with the high risk stocks what is the point of a store of value that trades like a hyperspace i mean this is not this is not the principle goal in comparison uh with several thousand years of practice has been boringly stable throughout the last couple of years i should know i earn some so finally jeremy if we have begun this u.s equities crash what hope can you give investors for the period ahead uh stay out of trouble make sure you don't buy expensive markets expensive stocks emphasize value cheapness for what you get hunt around for the cheaper countries hunt around for the cheap cheaper stocks within those countries carry some cash reserves there'll be perhaps some very nice buying opportunities and um whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles it is incredibly seductive very hard to resist being there done that myself a few decades ago made a fortune and wiped myself out a very salutary and i i would wish on most of you that you avoided jeremy grantham thank you yeah it's a pleasure thank you bye you
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