저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 전 자산 버블 상태에서 가장 덜 나쁜 선택은 신흥시장 저성장 가치주이며, 현금 20~30%를 보유해 싼 가격을 기다리라는 주장. 버블 진단: 4대 자산군 중 3.5개가 심각한 버블 영역이며, 주식시장 전반이 극도로 고평가되어 있다고 봄. 시장 조정 시나리오: 버블이 자연 해소되어 10~15년간 횡보하며 이익이 성장하는 시나리오를 기대하지만, 시장은 장기 횡보를 싫어해 대개 예상보다 크게 오르거나 내린다고 진단. 신흥시장 선호 근거: 신흥시장은 S&P 500 대비 가장 큰 할인 구간 중 하나에 있으며, 과거 2000년대 초와 2007년 사례에서 신흥시장이 S&P를 상회했음. 중국 등 고성장 국가를 포함해 선진국보다 높은 성장률이 예상됨. 가치 대 성장: 2010년대 후반 저성장 가치주가 고성장주에 크게 밀렸고 2020년은 역대 최악의 해였으며, 가치/성장 비율은 1974년 이후 최대 격차 수준. 1974년 이후 가치주 성과가 좋았던 점을 근거로 제시. 포트폴리오 제안: 신흥시장 저성장 가치주를 10~20년 장기 보유하고, 현금 20~30%를 확보해 향후 더 싸진 가격에 대응. 예: 현금 30%, 신흥시장 70%. S&P 500은 2000~2010년 마이너스 수익처럼 장기 부진할 것으로 전망. 리스크: 신흥시장도 다소 고평가이며 큰 하락 가능성이 있음. 대부분의 투자자는 주식 매도를 설득하기 어렵다고 인정.
다듬은 글
if you could buy the value stocks in the emerging market universe uh which after all which you can right which you can and it includes some very high growth potential countries like china and collectively they will have a higher growth rate than the developed world almost certainly and they sell at a huge discount i would say they are modestly cheap in an s p world that is extremely overpriced and you could lock them away for 10 years or 20 years and and really expect a decent return which i would recommend this is the most broad as i said asset bubble of all time with three and a half of the four major asset classes clearly in severe bubble territory right and thinking that you have no alternative but pick between one of the four bubbles is a pretty grim uh way to view life i i get the argument so pick a bubble they'll all go together probably and you will suffer a lot of pain and the intellectual content of that argument that they were all bubbles so we had to pick the least bad one will um resonate in your head as as the market unravels is there any way that that these bubbles can kind of you know just can self-correct and so that it's it's not some sort of an armageddon scenario or what is your a scenario a dozen to 15 years of flat market with earnings doing okay and rotation within the market everything would work out fine and every portfolio manager i almost ever met has felt in in market bubbles that that could happen it just does the market abhors long sideways movements as we all know it either goes up more than you think or down more than you think you can always hold out hope for an extended sideways movement but it it never seems right i would look around and ask the question what is the least bad and the least bad is emerging markets it's a little overpriced absolutely but it is it is at one of its three points of maximum difference to the s p 500 and each of the other two examples worked out wonderfully well in favor of emerging markets conversely when emerging markets was at a peak which it was in 07 it sold at a premium pe to the s p you can have very bad things happen which they did but emerging markets is relatively very cheap and pretty much close to fair value and the other thing is value versus growth low growth stocks have been pummeled by high growth stocks for the decade ending in in 2019 and then in the year 2020 they had the worst year by far ever so you had the worst decade followed by the worst year and the ratio of value or low growth to high growth was also at the co equal highest widest it had ever been with the 1974 and the outcome after 1974 for value was wonderful so i would look at the intersection of those two ideas if you could buy the value stocks in the emerging market universe uh which after all inc which you can right which you can and it includes some very high growth potential countries like china and collectively they will have a higher growth rate than the developed world almost certainly and they sell at a huge discount i would say they are modestly cheap in an s p world that is extremely overpriced and you could lock them away for 10 years or 20 years and and really expect a decent return which i would recommend and since there is no hope of persuading people to actually get out of stocks that would be the best i could offer but for those three people out there who have a will of steel i would say also have a cash reserve of 20 or 30 percent as much as you can psychologically bear to take advantage of much cheaper prices sometime in the not too distant future so would that be your one investment for a long-term diversified portfolio at this particular point is to have a stash of cash no i would have low growth emerging markets as much as i could stand all right and the cash reserve as much as i could stand and if you had 70 30 30 cash in 70 cheap emerging markets that would be a pretty resilient portfolio i have no doubt for the next 10 or 20 years though i think the s p of course will underperform just as it had a tough time from 2000 to 2010 where it had a negative return and emerging markets incidentally beat it by eleven you
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