저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 블록체인 기술 자체는 유용할 수 있으나 그 유용성이 수조 달러 시가총액을 정당화하지는 않는다는 입장. 암호화폐 평가: 비트코인과 이더리움·솔라나 같은 블록체인은 구분해서 볼 수 있으나, 최근 1년간 암호화폐를 많이 연구했음에도 식료품 구매 수단이나 가치저장 수단으로는 부족하다고 평가. 가격 흐름: 일부 암호화폐는 투기성 주식과 높은 상관관계를 보이며 40~50% 하락한 상태라고 언급. 기술 활용: 블록체인이 금융 거래 마찰을 줄이는 데 쓰일 가능성은 인정하나, 인터넷처럼 실물 생산성 향상으로 이어질 때 가치가 생긴다고 봄. 인터넷 비교: 인터넷은 막대한 가치를 창출했지만 인터넷 단위 자체를 투기 자산으로 발행해 수조 달러로 평가받지는 않았다고 설명. 투자 테마: 그린 투자는 더 큰 문제인 '지구 자원 한계 내에서 살기'의 하위 주제이며, 존재론적 필요성이라고 주장. 환경 리스크: 플라스틱·독성 화학물질 문제, 곤충 개체 감소에 따른 생태계 연쇄 붕괴 가능성을 경고. 인구 우려: 인간 정자 수 감소와 출산 보조가 필요한 부부 비율 증가를 근거로 인구 문제를 언급. 종목·자산 방향 예측: 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없음. 장기 테마 견해만 존재. 출연자 전망: 암호화폐 장기 회의론과 그린·환경 테마에 대한 장기 낙관 입장을 유지.
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is there a technology blockchain that will turn out to be very useful whether done by corporations and governments and everybody else i am sure the answer is yes there's a useful technology etc etc uh does this justify trillions of dollars of perceived wealth no it doesn't it might amount to trillions of dollars of wealth eventually if they can find a usefulness for it when it's integrated into the economy it will perhaps facilitate facilitate productivity like many ideas do jeremy i'm curious to know if um in the 12 months since we last spoke you've changed your view on cryptocurrencies i have spent a lot of time in the last year on cryptocurrencies they may not be good for buying groceries they may not be a store of value they may be highly correlated with the speculative stocks they may have come down 40 50 percent like the specs but they do something way over my head to understand do you buy the argument that there is an important difference between bitcoin on the one hand and at least a couple of other cryptocurrencies on the other and i'll name them uh ethereum that's a blockchain ether is the coin and solana and the difference and i'll do my best to articulate it is that those other blockchains are actually building blocks for new businesses that will prove to be revolutionary because they will eliminate things or help to eliminate things that i suspect you don't like transactional friction yeah in the banking system uh and rent ticking that remains embedded in legacy financial institutions so the question is is there a technology blockchain that will turn out to be very useful whether done by corporations and governments and everybody else i am sure the answer is yes there's a useful technology etc etc does this justify trillions of dollars of perceived wealth no it doesn't it might amount to trillions of dollars of wealth eventually if they can find a usefulness for it when it's integrated into the economy it will perhaps facilitate facilitate productivity like many ideas do very few ideas of that kind floated around and were capitalized at trillions of dollars even though they had an enormous impact on the economy blockchain should be like one of those so maybe not quite as much of a cryptoskeptic you could say the internet by the way the internet has created enormous value but it didn't float around internet units which were capitalized and became worth trillions of dollars and and and i admire them for not doing that they they deliberately went out of their way to make the internet and a facilitator and not in a way of amassing money in itself you like green as a theme are there any other themes or trends that you're willing to bet on i i tell you what i i think about the future and that is the green will turn out to be just a subset of a bigger more comprehensive issue and that is loosely speaking living within our means we have simply shot way beyond the long-term capacity of the planet to deal with us and one of the problems is waste and this is not just climate change in greenhouse gases but of course plastics it's also poisons we generate so many toxic chemicals that there is strong indication that the planet is really not conducive to life we are killing off our insect life we're killing off all manner of animal life the world can do just fine without homo sapiens but it can it can't deal without insects because of a cascade effect all the little critters that eat insects all the birds that eat insects all the amphibians etc and they begin to go out of business and then the things that need them and the plants that needed them to to be fertilized one thing after another goes out of business and so nature is beginning to fail and in the end if we don't fix that we begin to fail as well and we see that in the toxicity numbers human fertility is going to hell we have one third of the sperm count that we had at the end of world war ii this is not impressive mostly we were over engineered so we get away with that but in the last 20 years we've gone from young couples needing help a rounding error to maybe 15 of every young couple in the us now needs help and that's a more or less a global problem so green investing isn't just a way to make money it's an existential necessity it's an existential necessity and and it's part of a bigger problem living beyond our means we use up our resources we put too much pressure on the natural environment we poison the natural environment and in that sense it's a lot bigger issue than climate change writ small you
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