저자: Meo · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 단기 저항(35,000)을 넘으면 36,400까지 갈 수 있고, 2024년 5만 달러 재도달을 전망하며, 주식시장은 10~15% 조정 가능성이 있어 롱 포지션에 신중해야 한다. 비트코인: 2023년 10월 중순 3만 달러 초반 조정 후 3만4천 달러까지 상승한 것을 근거로 상승 방향을 유지한다. 1차 저항은 35,000, 돌파 시 36,400 구간을 언급했다. 현물 ETF 승인 기대(블랙록)를 근거로 공매도를 피하라고 했고, 2024년 달러 약세와 함께 5만 달러 재도달을 예상했다. 11월 3일 전후 사이클 전환 가능성을 경고했다. 채권·금리: 빌 애크먼이 채권 숏을 청산한 것을 경기 둔화 신호로 해석했다. 채권 가격이 83 수준이던 2007~2008년 저점 패턴을 언급하며, 연준이 결국 금리를 인하할 것으로 본다. 미국 주식시장: S&P500 기업의 EPS가 3.7% 하회하는 등 실적이 부진하고, 상위 7개 기업을 제외하면 대부분 기업 실적이 나쁘다고 평가했다. 지역은행 ETF 거래량 증가를 경고 신호로 봤다. 다우 기준 33,000 지지 이탈 시 32,500, 29,800까지 하락 가능성을 제시했다. 다우가 26,000~30,000으로 갈 수 있다고 보며, 이는 수개월 내 현실화될 수 있다고 했다. 전략: 한국 주식 매수 신호는 제시하지 않았고, 미국 주식 롱은 속도를 늦추고 33,500 회복 여부를 관찰하라는 입장이다. 리스크: 11월 3일 전후 사이클 전환, FOMC 동결 기대 변화, 지역은행 불안이 주요 변수다. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 가능성을 높게 보며, 비트코인은 중기 상승을 기대한다.
다듬은 글
25th of October 2023 Wednesday Meo with Kell once again now bill egman right close his Bor shorts wow is he thinking that the market will rally well I think not something bad could be happening that means that will the Dow repeat what happened in 0708 well to me itself it's very possible I got a chart for you you really do the miss this all right so let's us not tweit further let's go all right before we start make sure that this apply as usual and thank you am for the kind sponsorship now recently I've been very busy because I has had my 24th intake and it was great fun many people enjoyed this we have a lot of time trading together making money and of course we have great time with all the seniors coming back again to explain to the Juniors how the market can be done with a system and I kind of like it so much and of course that took a lot of my time and I was away so you miss my ma video thank you for waiting for me let's go into details all right first of all remember just a couple of days ago on the 18th of October which is like probably um about a week ago I was telling everyone that it's time to buy some Bitcoin remember I show you the chart like this I say that Bitcoin will come down first and then the next travel period be up to 30,000 to as much as 34,000 but of course I did say that 34,000 will come next year but incredibly Bitcoin went to 34,000 in just less than less than two weeks all right so I was right and wrong at the same time but of course we know that the big boys were buying into this KSI was green kcx was black and of course my KRW will tell us that the buying was in so if all this detail is so we know that the upside is going to be there now how high Bitcoin could be traveling now to me itself we have a strong resistance at about 35,000 if 35,000 can be bridged we can to see 36,400 area now do note on the 3rd of November remember approximately this is called a KFC this basically a flip cycle we may see a cycle flip down so watch out for third of November approximate this is where Traders need to be very careful now that could actually means that the market could go all the way to the sky or that could be some profit taking coming soon so Traders be very careful third November I put there third of November 2023 so guys watch out for this date itself yeah it's a very interesting calculation that I created on my own okay pretty cool all right so let's move on okay and then CLE my screen yeah okay let's go all right at the same time now you can see Bitcoin saw because of the uh ETF speculation now I've been saying this for many time I believe that black rock will definitely get the go ahead by SEC and that's the reason why I've been telling this don't short Bitcoin in fact the S crypto Traders suffer over100 million of short liquidation as Bitcoin hit three months high now I've been saying this do not short Bitcoin I been saying that next year 2024 Bitcoin will be a new daring I believe that Bitcoin go up to 50,000 again so I Believe by 2024 right 2024 Bitcoin will go up to $50,000 again and that is because of the um um US dollar I believe going come down yeah but of course if it pulls back and then go up again that will be the best bet for us okay let's see how things develop over there but make sure that I share with you Bitcoin is a buy all right so at the same time right now let's go into other thing now bill ikan is all his bond shorts you can see they covered his bond shorts and he basically got more than four million people viewing it as and he mentioned that it's too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at the current long-term rate so it's because the economy is slowing slow faster than the recent data suggests so what does it mean actually means that if he stay short and if any res come in and change and cut interest rate anytime his bond short will be hit so that's the reason why he cover it right now because he's telling people that the data is not good and if you look at it right now yesterday after he covered his shorts SM at the volume oh my goodness the volume itself was really impressive you can see that the volume itself is really really huge in of volume and that tells you that shorts covering is coming in now I want to take a look here so the last time this price now remember I told you at about 83 is a good time to buyback the the bond market and it's seemingly the right track and if you look back in 0708 that is where the two lows were before the bond market went out now this is very critical information please watch this because this is going to be mindblowing in a short while time so remember this the last time we saw this 83 was back in 08 0708 time okay now when I put the stock market into the picture of it this is where things get really really insane now this is a Time whereby the bond market hit 83 and then it went out right the stock market pulled back a bit and then it rallied again and back in 07 when the things come back to 83 again this time around the bond market showed up because the FED Reserve came in to save the day because they know that something is wrong and that's where the Dow actually Peak and slam more than 35% to 50% during that period of time now if you look at this right now guys this is insane because why we're now at the same level with the bond market was back in 0708 and then the stock market fell so if you ask me that is a really probability for the stock market to pull so if they pull back itself how low can it be I believe that the first stop will be at 30,000 and it it's crazy now we can even see 26,000 so this is where I I going to tell you this I believe that this may actually happen not now not immediate maybe over the span of next few months I believe that this will really happen because the facts and and figure shows that very Reser will likely have to cut interest rate later to save the day and that is how the bond market actually recover so that is reason why I believe that why Bill Amman decided to cut his shorts so remember he said this the economy is slowing faster than the recent data suggest so it's very clear in fact I replied to him I said that this seem to be the start of the starting all right you can see that is down there I actually replied to him in a way so guys let's take a look so we all know that Bloomberg came out the US profit misses are being punished by the most in four years time the medium underperformance of S&P 500 companies is missing EPS by 3.7% so that means that right the corporate guidance rision is lackluster and you can see right now it shows very clearly that the performance is really below par and this is not a good sign and if this going to continue definitely s that economy in trouble but of course you will say that how come Microsoft did well well the seven of them they are on their own right but if you look at Google data of earnings is not fantastic although the share price is down quite a heavy today but still if you ask me is a seven significant counter that make the market up but the remaining 40 493 companies are not doing well at all so you look at it right now the SNP Regional Bank ETF I I'm really very overrate for this because you look at it right now you can see that uh it's now again coming off it was at the high at about 48 48 dive back to 38 over the last 10 weeks and the volume actually increased this is not a good sign the volume actually increased more than usual this week and this is not a good sign because I mean last week sorry that means that there's very high chance they going to go down further and going down further the said before that's where the market break and that's something that we don't want to see so if you ask me I kind of more worried than not regarding about the market right now and you can look at it we are down seven days away from the um next fomc meeting and very clear itself right everyone is expecting the fair Reserve not to do anything to the rate so you can think about this it was supposed to be a rate high in November they I mean October itself they didn't do it then people expect in November they're not going to do it seemingly so if that continue the pause is ongoing and if continue like this there a matter of time they'll be cutting interest rate and if they cut interest rate itself right this is not going to go nice because even the December numbers shows that right they only 24.9% of people expecting a rate hike so if everybody expect a pause and then that will change the the situation of the US bond prices and then if you look at back the picture itself when the bond price when people start buying the bond the equity Market will fall this something you know so now if you look at the chart using conventional this something that we must take note of let's take a look so you can see this basically using the trend line we are heavily supported right now at about 33,000 level so if any anytime the market breaks down the first support will be approximately at 32,500 Region now where are we right now we at 31 33,41 was 650 points away so let's see whether 32,500 can stay supported now if the market fail to stay supported then there is a potential for the Dow to settle down at 29,800 area which is always is possible so Traders you need to watch out for this 3200 500 first then then be 29,800 now of course this is just purely on the uh conventional chart so you look at the twb chart let's take a look so this is twb chart you can see very clear stuff that it basically tries to break the resistance which is over here a BMB resistant it failed to stay above it then it pulled back down break the support and Incredibly came down to the B&B minus one time1 really bottom up from here so for Traders who have been with me they know exactly where to buyback their position but at the moment now the KSI the kcx and the KRW really shows that the selling in the market is there hence therefore I'm not comfortable on the long side I would rather go slower at a moment now I'll observe this of course there should be some intermittent recovery back to 33,500 but if the market can't stay above 33,000 there will be selling all right so with that is all right I hope you enjoy this video and like And subscribe and Share my video is C signing off the K have a great day bye-bye
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