저자: Kel—출연자소속은제목·설명란에명시없음;EdYardeni,MarkMobius,GregBranch · 외국인
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결론: 진행자 Kel은 단기적으로 S&P500의 추가 하락(조정)을 전망하며, 신중한 약세 관점을 유지한다. 은행 위기와 금융 상황: SVB·시그니처은행 파산 이후 FDIC가 대형은행에 특별분담금을 부과할 예정이며, 대형은행(JP모건, BofA, 웰스파고, 골드만삭스, 모건스탠리 등)이 감시 대상이 될 수 있다고 언급. 미국 은행 예금 약 17조 달러 중 대출 약 12조 달러로 유동성 부담이 있다고 지적. 연준이 4~5% 금리를 주는 상황에서 예금 이탈 가능성도 제시. 크레딧 스위스: 부유층 탈세 연루 관련 미국 측 위반 혐의(최대 1억 달러 계좌, 2.2억 달러 역외계좌 등 총 7억 달러 규모 언급)가 보도되며 악재로 제시. Ed Yardeni(낙관): 은행 위기는 연준과 FDIC가 잘 통제할 것이며 연준은 추가 인상을 멈출 것으로 봄. 경기는 업종별 순환 침체 상태지만 전체 경기침체는 아니라고 평가. 1분기 실적은 전년대비 -5~7%, 4분기는 +10% 전망. 목표는 S&P500 4,600. Greg Branch(약세): 연준이 금리를 낮추기 전까지 신용 긴축과 실적 하향이 지속되며, 2023년은 이익 역전(inversion) 해인 것으로 봄. 컨센서스 실적 전망이 계속 빗나갔다고 지적하며 1분기 컨센서스 -6%도 하향 여지가 있다고 봄. Mark Mobius(연준 추가 인상 전망): 인플레이션이 목표(2%)보다 높아 연준이 금리 인상을 계속할 것으로 보며, 미국·중국의 반도체·국방 지출과 인프라 투자로 경기가 견조할 것이라고 봄. 고용지표도 양호하다고 평가. 진행자 기술적 분석: S&P500이 어제 상단 돌파(매수 신호)를 보였으나, 자신의 추세선 기준으로는 저항 구간이라 추가 매도 파동이 올 수 있다고 판단. 6월~7월 매도 조정, 8월 경기침체 우려, 5월 무렵 3,820 도달 가능성, 최악의 경우 10월 저점 3,200 가능성 제시. 진행자는 이를 개인 견해로 명시. 대형 기술주(마이크로소프트, 애플, 아마존, 넷플릭스, 메타)는 최근 상승했으나 실적 둔화 우려가 있다고 언급. 관련 종목·자산 중 명시적 매수 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
oops hi 30th of March 2023 Emil with Kell once again all right Mark mobile sees more rate hikes wow but yet yet yadini sees SMB at 4 600. okay guys seriously you know people have been commenting and said Kel you are bearish because of the market condition I mean explain myself long enough so I'm going to move myself away from attention and bring the two senior folks in because they are the people who are either writing research papers for people or the guy Mobius who is holding 50 billion dollars of assets they will be the best people to tell you whether what we're gonna see next all right so rather than I say whether let's listen to them wouldn't be a better idea let's go all right so first of all guys we had a wonderful lunch yesterday all right the good food was excellent this place is a must go if you can take some chili this is a good place to go all right it's a paragon basement level all right thank you guys for uh coming for the lunch we really appreciate it and also thank you guys continue comments from now until next Friday leave a comment of the videos and you will be staying a chance to have lunch with me again two weeks from now okay thank you once again all right disclaimer apply as usual and thank you aims for declining sponsorship now first of all guys once again my 20th intake is coming this coming weekend so if you are available you are free and you learn more things from me just contact Susan at 868-5030 for more details all right thank you all right let's recap what happened last night wow the Dow Jones shot up 300 doing three point nested up by 235 Point SMP up by 56 Point wow what's happening well apparently the market now feels that the worst is over and everything is good let's buy some shares so Microsoft Apple um Amazon all went up the video also right the thing is this okay the thing is this all right are we really out of woods yet well apparently from the chart looks like it is because we have breakout in the technical we are pretty clear that things seem to be better but I got my reservation but nonetheless I'm explaining to you what happened it's a turnaround and of course we all saw that it's meta Netflix a busy push up Apple Amazon all right all the technology company all went up so why because people are feeling that courses clear things is cheap let's buy something and of course the kre we use the spdr SMP Regional banking ETF it's also up by one percent but do know once again our general reminder this index was down by 12 in a single week and recently it's just aging up by one percent and everybody is safe well I'll leave it there but the two year you'll stay above four percent is something that is not there okay but of course yeah from yadini research says that every day that something doesn't is a good day so he feel that now since the second Silicon Valley Bank has already done deal we should move on yeah okay no wrong look at the chart beautiful one the woman's Market start trading everywhere every moments I did to buy but I really have my reservation but I'll let the um spotted people tell you what to do okay all right because now Credit Suisse violated deals on the rich clients tax evasion now we all know that in the past we always hear this now you keep your money in Credit Suisse or in the Switzerland bank because it's like what it takes right so apparently now when things get into trouble okay everything's Unearthed apparently now U.S saying that they violated okay and the thing is this there is a criminal conspiracy of up to 100 million dollars in account belong to one family of an American Experia wow okay and even they help a U.S businessmen to hide more than 220 million in the offshore accounts on the IRS so again all these are popping up and in total itself it's as much as 700 million dollars wow okay so all this thing tells you that Credit Suisse come on you get hit it's a kind of like expected thingy right then of course it's a bank increase over well let's put it this way in retrospect okay first of all we can see that right the um uninsured deposit before exclusion has came down quite a fair bit but you can see it's still at 45 trillion dollars okay that's a lot of money now let's take a look at here now the total deposit right is here in cases obviously is 17 trillion dollars over here which is like the total deposit right but you look at it now the total loan now is about 12 million so which means that out of the 17 trillion dollars that they have deposited in the banks 12 trillion is given out so that is basically 70 so if there's going to be another bank run what do you think will happen then again if I say that Cal yeah just fear-mongering now guys this is it possible that don't man run why not because if the Federal Reserve is going to give me a four percent to five percent interest why would I want to put in the bank that gives me less than one percent so that is where I'm coming from so that's the reason why not FDIC is going up to the major Banks yes indeed it's the latest in the market they face about 23 billion dollars in calls from the bank failures and it wants a big lenders to pay all right now this industry is special assessment of the svb and the signature bank failure and now the thing is this to all the big Banks like JP Morgan they grew up Bank of America Wells Fargo Goldman side Morgan Stanley all these banks will likely be in the watch list right now because this is something that fbic wanted to do so of course what do you think no one can get it for free Everybody Must I must pay for his due so let's see what will happen from here and that's why I have my concern in next week's movement all right so of course again other than I say you say let's look at the Boo and the benefits all right apparently two person was invited on CNBC and they had their own views I kind of like their views that's why I decided to show you the video it's about three minutes long and the main thing is this one of them is bullish one of them is kind of like bearish let's watch the video shall we let's go two guest Ed Gardini of your identity research and CNBC contributor Greg branch of veritas Financial both with me live welcome back let's let's do this again because we started this once and then we had a little banking crisis pop up Ed and it doesn't feel to me from looking at your projections like that swayed you at all you still think we go 4 600 by the end of the year why well that has swayed me is that the financial crisis that we've had here this banking crisis is uh going to be very well contained by both the fed and the FDIC and at the same time I think it's going to keep the fed from Raising interest rates any further I don't see the FED lowering interest rates but I think they are currently now at a restrictive enough level where they don't have to keep raising interest rates and meanwhile the economy has been in a recession since the beginning of last year just happens to be a rolling recessions hitting different sectors of different times without adding up to an economy-wide recession so I think unbalanced companies are going to continue to generate the profit gains I think we are going to see a decline in a year-over-year basis in the first quarter uh maybe five seven percent for uh earnings but uh from then on I think we're going to see positive comparisons and probably something like up ten percent on a year-over-year basis for the fourth quarter of this year you know Greg is Ed was talking I wrote down two words pause and put both related to the FED because it sounds like Ed thinks both of those are back they're going to pause and the fed put exists if something happens they're going to come right into the rescue as they always seem to do what's wrong with that view well I agree with the passport obviously I'm not going to be a hypocrite about this Scott you know last year uh one of my main complaints was that people wouldn't believe the FED when they said it's a four percent terminal rate we're talking about a pivot why don't you believe the Fed so let's believe that that I'll continue to believe the threatens and think that they only have another 25 basis points the thing that the market is not getting is that the financial conditions in the system itself is going to pick up the momentum and so the FED does not need to continue to raise rates because underwriting standards are going to increase credit is going to continue to tighten and as my good friend Adam Parker said in the segment before when credit conditions are tight and you get slower growth and so while my theme for 2022 was that I thought we were going to have a massive deceleration in earnings growth and Top Line growth that consensus was not taking into account 2023 is the year of inversion Scott going to have a massive profit and earnings uh and earnings uh inversion I think that you'll see company outlines come in rather significantly and yes consensus is now at negative six for the first quarter but it started the quarter at slightly positive and it's come down six percent and we saw with the fourth quarter the consensus just isn't good at getting this right we went into the fourth quarter with consensus thinking that it would be negative three percent earnings and it turned out to be a negative five or six percent earnings so I think that the market is still missing this it's breathing a sigh of relief right now but everything that the FED did is going to start to impact but we're going to see company profits and Top Line turnaround and we're going to see a more discriminating consumer which is what Target and Walmart and others told us already all right guys so that is my view right here same with Team brunch all right the thing is this you have two views one of them is saying that okay we are very rolling recession thingy failing on and now we should have a recovery that's very bullish then for brunch it's very clear that he is saying that we do have a problem because of the earnings going to come down and this is something that we all know that it's impossible not to have the earnings coming down when the numbers are showing that isn't it true so definitely with the money the bank's tightening now definitely the attack on Titan and plus FDIC going up to them I can tell you this this will tighten up and that will affect earnings that is for sure but of course it's going to be very difficult to explain this right now when the market is going up right so all I can say is this things look at it for the factual way of course when the person go out we just save the flow but let's take note of that guys eventually it will catch up so that's the reason why you can see now the index uh the economic Composite Index is really coming down to the below the 30 marker and that is a very very big big problem here and and Traders need to be very very careful and of course now the SMP earnings we can see pretty clear that numbers are showing that the downside is happening is coming down as you can see here while the ferry Reserve is increasing interest rate and we've been seeing this since before whenever the FED increase interest rate you do have the earnings coming down this is something that is really very simple to understand isn't that true all right nonetheless it's all right let's bring in the guy who has 50 billion dollars under asset Mobius to tell us why he believed that there'll be more great hikes let's take it away mark can you continue raising interest rates because the goal percent inflation is far away uh we are now looking at what five six percent inflation rate in the US uh and they want to get it down to two percent so they want to continue raising interest rates without necessarily causing a problem with the economy but if you look at the money supply in America it's gone down but not much we're now at 21 trillion and don't forget you've got China with over 20 trillion and other big big money supply in the global picture so I think we're in a situation where the economies will do fairly well in spite of the rising interest rates in the US so here's the thing uh you know the flip side of course is is recession risk If the Fed uh keeps going or or uh maybe overcooks it uh right but I understand that you think by spend uh do you think that uh spending on the part of the us as well as China on the military on technology and sometimes it's often related uh is going to keep growth up there and uh uh keep us from falling into uh into recession that's kind of ironic I mean although admittedly good for business exactly it's really a strange thing because on one side you have the FED wanting to lower inflation by raising interest rates but on the other side you have an incredible amount of money supply already in existence and more coming in as a result of government spending the tremendous spending on semiconductors in the U.S and in China tremendous spending on defense in both countries and uh the the combination of these two things in addition to of course infrastructure spending uh will mean that the economies will continue to do fairly well and a good indication of that is employment you can see unemployment is not high although there are some companies that are laying law workers in fact the employment situation in the U.S looks very very good hi so isn't that clear from the guy himself the fair Reserve is in the Catch-22 position they need to bring out inflation but they also have a problem they're starting to flood the market for four billion again because of the bank crisis so it's going to be draggy and because once you drag your feet you will have problems and that's how I see it now you can see some of this was reminded right I'm gonna say this once again I'm gonna write it down but everybody's sake just for today all right so take a look okay my view is this there should be some selling okay down to June July period okay that's how I see it then maybe we have a bit of a sideway and then we will have the recession coming in okay recession coming in in August okay and write down here once again so basically there and after that maybe the markets will go up again because why you need to have a bit of selling the capitulation coming in before and people get freaked out and everybody say okay time to get on the market it's time to selling blah blah blah that is usually the bottom and if you notice this in any Market self usually it will come at a time when everybody is pretty complacent ever is clear like nothing gonna happen again and that's where things really happen so look at the chart right now this S P 500 are going to go live right now to show it to you better let's give you a moment let's go into the chart okay now let's take a look right here guys okay now first of all we do have a breakout you can see that right let me show you the breakout yeah this is a this is B all right and this is C so it's a very beautiful trend line and yesterday we have a very nice breakup okay so that should call for a buy okay and the volume was slightly higher than the previous day that's pretty good so not too bad okay that's a buying reason now the thing that I want you to take note on a technical side on the other way of drawing take a look here okay so what I did was I say the same thing I basically have my own way of drawing technical this is my my number one then I cross everything because you notice that right this was where the market breaks and it showed up when you pull back you notice that it basically take this level as a very interesting uh Trend uh trending uh line here and once the market goes below it you see very effectively well the market came down right okay so that's why I decided to cut it across and when I cut it across you can see that you can see a very clear um technical resistance over here so on my the other side of it right I feel that using my own way of drawing trend line I feel that right we are actually at the push-up for another way of selling again that means that in my opinion we're going to see another wave of selling very soon okay and I still believe they're going to see 38 20 by maybe May period okay maybe by then itself then of course when we see the low in October I say again if things really go mad it is possible to see the S P 500 trading three two zero zero I live in for another session but guys this is my personal View and of course everybody is entitled to their own view all right so don't leave it there and hope you see where I'm coming from alright guys I'll see you on the technical side Miss Kell signing off bye
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