저자: JeremyGranthamvsJeremySiegel—진행자CRAZII발언제외,주출연자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Grantham과 Siegel 중 누구 전망을 믿을지 묻는 영상. 진행자는 시장 전반에 하락 경계 입장이다. 시장 상황: 미 증시는 3일 연속 도지형 보합이며 좋은 실적에도 추격 매수가 붙지 않는다. 넷플릭스는 실적 실망에 장중 15% 급락 후 5%대로 회복했다. 인플레이션: 영국 물가가 예상 9.8%를 넘어 10.1%로 나왔고, 진행자는 미국 다음 CPI도 지난번보다 높을 것으로 본다. 금리: 보스틱·불러드 등 연준 인사들은 금리 인상이 한 번 더 필요하다고 보며, 최종 금리는 5.5~5.75% 수준(일부 6%)으로 예상된다. 진행자는 금리 인상이 경기 침체 위험을 키운다고 본다. Siegel: 장기 투자자는 매도보다 매수·보유가 낫고 단기 변동성은 있을 수 있으나 강세 관점이라고 한다. Grantham: 2000년 닷컴 붕괴와 2008년 금융위기를 예측했던 인물로, 대선 주기상 4월 말 이후 증시 하락 경향을 언급하며 S&P 3200 가능성을 제시한다. 장단기 금리 역전, PMI 46.3 등 경기 침체 신호를 근거로 든다. 자금 흐름: 머니마켓 자산이 증가하고 있으며, 주식 수익률 프리미엄이 사라져 0%대로 간다는 분석이 제시된다. 결론: 진행자는 다우가 단기적으로 33,473까지 내려갈 수 있다고 본다(현재 약 33,848). 출연자 전망: Siegel은 강세, Grantham은 약세, 진행자는 약세 쪽에 가깝다.
다듬은 글
19 April 202 entry Wednesday guys apology my nose is really really bad I'm basically having a bit of fever right now and my sore throat is there so I'm very sorry if the my voice can't hurt you today but this is going to be interesting I always get them confused at one stage of my time Jeremy Grantham and Jeremy Seagal and now it's clear all right the one on the left side is Grantham the one on the right side Seagal now Segal himself is actually a Walton Professor so the thing is this a professors calling for bullish right now was General Grantham is calling for bearish so the question is who should we trust both of them are definitely very seasoned investors and Trader but they have very extreme views so what do you think what will be your answer then leave me a comment in the comment box let me know your take as of the market right now now once again disclaimer apply as usual and thank you aims for the client sponsorship now first of all thanks guys for the great lunch come out guys we that place was good the food was pretty good pretty decent the Omakase you can try and if you will be client you can actually go for the one for one yeah one for one deal for 128 dollars so pretty decent good food so guys if you like Omakase and you stay in the east side or Central you can try it up at this um go to the mall Tower okay all right for those who have missed it right don't worry on the 3rd of May we're gonna have this uh Tomahawk King Barbecue all right gonna have great beef by the way this is beef yeah so of course those who can take beef then it will be really sad too of course there's other stuff but I don't expect pork but it's a Halal restaurant yeah okay it's somewhere at this 324 Changi Road all right so we're gonna have this on 3rd of May so guys continue to send a command until for my video and we'll pick it up and then we'll do the uh spin the wheel next Saturday okay all right now let's recap what happened last night well once again the U.S market did a recovery again another doji from third straight day in a row the U.S market really known to play this game and we can see right now right Microsoft Apple was totally flat for the day like Amazon only Google continue to go lower because of the um their Bing case and of course we do get we see Johnson Johnson was surprisingly lower that was because of their data not too good but the bank shares was decent because the data came out rather uh okay so overall itself right the market is lackluster no Direction everybody seemingly is like you know bad news all the good earnings doesn't really see follow through buying so that's my reason why I felt that maybe this cycle could correct so basically right back American coming out result government sex numbers was not very fantastic so again all these tells me that we should be careful and of course um streaming Giant Netflix disappointed investors a lot of people was buying in the head of this looking expecting the number to be good we saw the numbers came out and the share died by 15 but very fast we've been less than five minutes or so the share rebounded by 10 so down by only five percent so this is the power of money going on so on one side it's how you may say that that is that shows that the mug is bullish but on the other side that means that the earnings are bad but people are just buying relentlessly that is really a very scary thing remember I mentioned to you about the UK inflation and I said that it will go back to 10 now it's happening the latest from CNBC the surprise comes in again as the much bigger holds above 10 so the market was looking at 9.8 but it came out 10.1 so again that shows because of the soaring food prices and the energy bills and this two thing were the ones that would basically lower down the U.S inflation last month so to me I mean it can't be only UK suffering right it should be U.S so of course there's a lot of winning being creative here so in my opinion this is actually a Prelude to what will happen for next month's CPI data for us I'm very confident that number will be higher than the last time okay I'm very confident let's see what I'm right so now the Bank of America okay Bank of England now has a bit of tasks right now because they are looking at to in to hide rates right and of course by hiking rate it will send a problem to all the banking industry which is happening to the US right now and of course if the US and the energy prices have to go higher which I suspect it will then that will basically push um this uh display of England to continue to rate high and of course if they continue to do that while this could spiral do something very very crazy so that's the reason why I feel that we are going to be on a Checkmate positioning soon so of course baller interestingly come out says that there will be more rate high but he says that he don't see recession no this is very interesting he says that the Wall Street is very English in the idea there's going to be a recession in six month time but it isn't the way you really expression expansion like this so to him he said rate height is important to curb inflation but because of this thing there will be no recession so well I just had to smile maybe he has his reason but I just can't see it how it connects because we can see the numbers are all coming down right now but it's EPS earnings um this uh numbers valuations all is coming down so all I can say is let's see whether it's right so let's hear what the Bloomberg course has to say heading so the course of that officials wanting to reign in inflation further read it in further and pushing back against the idea that as they continue to hike rates uh we are going to see a recession and that is the risk they're taking on by doing that and uh of course Rafael Bostic president Atlanta fed is someone who has been not super hawkish but slightly in the hawkish camp when he calls for more raid hikes and when he says that uh there is still more work to be done I am ready to do it I think we have to believe him and of course what they're what he's saying what others are saying about one more Hike It wall Street's accepting it now uh Wall Street figures that yes on the main meeting coming up in just a couple of weeks now there's going to be a 25 basis point hike that's going to take the key rate up to about uh five to five and a quarter percent but then the markets think that will be the last one and and Bostic seems to open the door to a pause as well uh in terms of playing down the recession risk he's saying the economy's Performing strongly he says acute Bank tensions mean svb meltdown and more that seems to be subsiding and he said the bankers are telling him their customers are calling now and asking if they should move their money they're not taking deposits out and putting them in bigger Banks and so he seems confident that this is the right thing to do now Jim Bullard president of St Louis but who has been one of the more caucus members of the FED amongst Central Bank presidents uh is still pushing for more and it more he said that he does not see a recession ahead he says wall Street's very engaged in the idea this is a quote from him uh doing an interview with Reuters today convinced there's going to be a recession in six months or something but that isn't really the way you would read an expansion like this and then he goes on to specifically cite the state straight to the labor market very important to him when it comes to the banking crisis banking turmo whatever you want to call it he said you know we're going to have a we're in a crisis or going into one our St Louis uh Financial stress index we go up to four or five Heidi he said it's not spiking it's zero now another way that he's confident that you can go ahead get to five to five and a quarter but he thinks ultimately that rate's going to get to five and a half to five and three quarters he's looking for the five point six percent ceiling so a lot well we'll get a lot of information now from that meeting in a couple of weeks we'll get uh the read from Jay Powell on what kind of expectation as a group they're looking for but for now we can see two voices who seem very convinced at least one more rate hike all right so you can share for yourself very clearly about this fried bowler is looking at 5.5 5.75 to even six at ceiling and that's the same number that I mentioned okay but Bostick right himself right he expect uh also coming in but he expects the rate had to go up and then stop there I will pause okay for quite a period of time now I'm gonna tell these guys look from zero percent to all the way down to five percent has already caused the CPI data to come down that's a good thing in which is coming down but this period of time while this was going up at the same time we have Banks suffering so the question is this okay if let's say we don't have a pause we're still going to still have this gradual movement here as well right which means it goes up a little bit more like this to six percent so what do you think will happen all right that means that more banks will suffer more Banks who have into trouble and there'll be more Banks coming out and say that look that we're going to follow in chapter 11.
all right now even let's say the baller doesn't get what you want to say six percent doesn't get it okay with up a 5.25 to 5.5 you mean you're going to have this a bit of more height a little bit then we pause for a while what happened this is still going to help the economy because the economy is not ready for a four percent to five percent interest rate well just last year lower we only have zero percent this time the height is so far so rapid it's not going to help and that's my reason why I feel that that this is not going to go out well so with all this information let's see what Jeremy Segal has to say because in his opinion unless you are very technical and short-term right you believe that this is going to be the start the bottom of the market and in fact he feels that right the core inflation has been wiped out that is very interesting so let's see what uh Sigel had to say right here even though it might be rough over the next three six months unless you're very tactical and very short term I mean I'm not a seller okay so basically he's saying that he's not gonna be a seller because the whole video is like quite quite some time so I can't bring it to you but you can hit Google on this basically his point is that he don't think it should be a seller Market in fact he said that it's time to buy and keep it it might be a bit of turbulence but overall he see bullishness all right so again watch this video on your own all right let's move on so for generally Grantham right he is more the bearish side because he feels that um the same thing is happening now he predicted the.com crash in 2000 and he also predicted the financial crisis in 208 so now he's saying that right there will be more selling and one of the things that he said is because of the presidential cycle so apparently he did his research and says that uh from October first year of the uh October 1st of the year to to the April 30th or year three of the presidential cycle which is this year there's a chance that the market will rally and we saw that in fact we really saw that the market really rallied from October interesting so but after April I mean by 1st of May which is a couple of weeks later he says that most of the time the market went down wow that is interesting so maybe the next time with another presidential election a president coming in just remember that okay on a year to October to the April of the third year seemingly it's like a repeated pattern so if the this is correct then likelihood that his forecast is that they're gonna be a seldom and interestingly the number he gave is the same number that I had I was also looking at 32 3200 and now he says that there's a chance of 3200 coming in well that is interesting because that is the same number I have and his reason was simple because of the inverted yield curve we can see that every time when an inverter comments we have a recession so this is the 10 year and a three months and we are now at the one of the worst levels since all the way back to 1980s so every time when you get to see this you get to see recession so it cannot be different guys this is what he's trying to say every time when you see an inversion you can see the recession coming in every time so this time it shouldn't be not so that's why if you look at it overall right now it's pretty clear that recession is coming in although I've been calling this for the longest of time people have been laughing at me but I think the numbers are pretty clear all right so let's look at the PMI number that's something that I wanted you to look at it this is a PA number in 2009 2021 and this year and you can see that right this is a widely used economic activity index and now it has came below expectation at 46.3 so this is something that we haven't seen since uh 08 and 2020 right so every time when we see this the market actually comes off so now we are actually at the same level as what we mentioned before so naturally guys it cannot be too too difficult to understand this right we're going to see some selling soon so the PMI data is going to go down hence therefore most likely the stock market will follow through 10 15 why not all right if you look at it further all the way back itself right you can see that the whole manufacturing activity is Contracting right now and 80 years of data that means you're going back all the way right from here we are right now where we are you can see we're all the way we can see 1974 that happened 1980 it happened before and 08 so that's why now the economic activity is set to deteriorate further we all know that and if the earnings are coming in even though they are good but the market is not buying this he speaks volume for itself that the boys are actually selling they are not buying so you can see right now the yield premier VM from stocks has vanished and it's going to go to the zero percent level and this is actually from the National Bureau of economic research okay it is very critical so all this information tells you that once we goes into the negative positioning you can see back here itself that is where confirm there will be recession so again all these information speak for itself I'm not making things up you just have to consider it on your own and of course look at the retail money market right now you can see very clearly that the relationship is very interesting look take a look guys this is where it is right now we put a market hops right you can see what's happening so when this is happening you can see that right now that usually uh when the market is speak is peaking and turning down for the SMP right the money market is also coming down at the same time so recently even though there's a lot of people coming in but the money market ratio now is also dipping so this explains why that there is a very good chance that S P 500 will be coming off soon and of course we look into deeper we look at the institutional money market assets but we can see a very interesting phenomenon let me show it to you right now you can see that um if the market is moving upwards in this case you can see right now the stock market actually comes off can you see so when this is moving up this way okay you can see that the stock market actually comes off all right pretty cool right so what is happening right now is that this money market assets right is looked to going forward versus a lot of people are buying into this okay when more people are buying into this because they know this that the interest rate is pretty good right now it's pay better in the stock market then if that really is to happen then naturally we're going to expect the stock market to pull back down so again all this information speak for itself it's only back to you whether do you believe it or not because if you also sell your stock market earnings are not there and it's fine despite the earnings are now much better than expected but the stock are not going up then the question mark is that means that the boys are actually selling so with this one here it's all right look at my chart here you can see that this is a dial right now I know that a lot of people are calling for Buy and they think that the dollar is going to go up soon and stuff like that but look at my KSI the big boys indicator they're actually showing that the boys are selling now just need the momentum to turn into blue then this will be a very heavy cell call now I'm going to explain the Dow Jones to come down to 33 473 in the near term so let's see where is it right now 333 848 so it's been over 400 points well I don't think it will happen a single day but probably within this week all right so if you like why you see what you want you here leave a comment on the comment box I would like to see that okay it's Carol signing off have a great day bye
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