저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥 조정 가능성을 중심으로 한 시황 분석. 테슬라는 180 저점 도달을 예측했으나 추가 하락(155) 가능성을 언급, 옥시덴털은 56달러 부근 매수 추천, 비트코인과 다우 동조화 및 다우 36,500 하락 가능성 제시, 금리 인하 시 주식이 하락해 온 역사적 패턴 강조, VIX 17 상승 및 나스닥 17,700 부근 단기 조정 전망. 자막 기준 발언이 일부 불명확함.
다듬은 글
1963 1973 1981 20002 2007 201019 what happened over this period of time I'll tell you more in detail and this could basically inform us that the US market may be coming down in next few months that's why you need to know this all right now time to look in all profit on the NASDAQ because I feel that the nasx will come down soon and we were spot on on Tesla and at yadani has won about the current interest rate environment so a lot of information coming in let's go into the video right now before we go into that disclaimer apply as usual and thank you ases for the kind sponsorship now first of all let me talk about oxy I've been a long long time I talk about this counter and I've been telling you guys this whenever oxy comes down to $56 take some buying position yes buy position every time when it come to $56 just buy $56 just just buy and so forth so a couple of days ago some of my friends and students asked me about this oxy and I told the same thing we see 56 just buy some oxy now I forgot to do in video so now I'm doing this again so if you miss this buy now it's at $58 you want to buy again wait for $56 now this is not a definite mantra for buying but we do see a con repeated pattern and somehow it seems that every time when the price come to this area here sou right the US crud oil price will also rebound so undeniable $56 can be a good buy and we all know that right B halfway have been buying a lot of this oxy recently and they bought much higher price too right so buying about $56 is a very good BET right let me know in the comment box now other than that this was Tesla okay Tesla we tell you to be careful at 265 we share you that Tesla most likly will come off and true B at 265 it came down and when it came down all the way my first Target was 223 which the market basically broke below low it wow that's bad and then hangs around at 210 and that was the support level that a lot of charties are saying that this will be the very important support it will go up but I have a different opinion I said that right most likely Tesla result may not be as good as what everyone thinks so so what happen is that people be careful and I said that likelihood Tesla share will come down to 180 and true be told yesterday Tesla price came down to 180 all right look at the low of the day this is amazing guys the low of the day 180 180 and this is my prediction back then itself a couple of days ago that I believe that Tesla will hit 180 so congratulation for those who have um bought in has shed Tesla I think today will be a good day to consider to book some profit because undeniable we also see the same thing again when Tesla hits the RSI at near the 30 region okay the market rebounded the market rebounded market rebounded now of course you ask me if you say that if the market rebound as you say we should be buying more ndaq uh well yes and no by right itself the the uh the market for Tesla should rebound based on what we seeing but I just don't like the way this time the way it come down and yesterday the huge volume itself is not very good because you see whenever that happen right you can see the volume doesn't really move much you see can you see that so what I'm fearing is that this could be really a real sell in state that means that the boys are really selling and with the Chinese market not doing very well right now and of course the Germany Market also tipping off right I got this feeling that Tesla may actually see more selling now it will rebound first okay they will rebound first I say it will but then again I think they'll come back down to 155 in a couple of weeks time so that is the reason why I'm not that comfortable to hold a NASDAQ right now okay that's my view let me know in the comment box now one thing is this we all know that in the past there's this thing said about B BTC right Bitcoin versus the US market and always it seems that the Bitcoin momentum or movement will follow with the Dow and the thing is this we can't deny this you can see that most of the time when the Bitcoin goes up the Dow goes up okay you got an idea now okay pretty cool right so it happen again okay happen again and if the Bitcoin goes down the US Dow goes down okay so the thing is this recently when the Bitcoin was surging okay all the way up that was cool the bow Jones also went up right there was contest rate but thing is is right now the Dow is staying in about 38,000 but Bitcoin has came off quite a a bit down to about 40,000 so if you ask me there's bit of di there's a bit of Divergence here as for catch up and if you look carefully over the longer period of time right it seems that right it just seems that if Bitcoin goes to certain places the US Dow Jones will follow later so if that is an idea then that means that there's a very high possibility if the Bitcoins are not going to go up the Dow May really come down to the 36,500 area that I have been advocating over the last few days so what do you think guys let me know in the comment box do you think that the Dow will go down to 6500 or the Bitcoin going back 50,000 now put aside let's talk about the fair Reserve okay now the fair Reserve roles and responsibility we know that right it's Central Bank okay they have child Regional Reserve Banks they have this uh Federal Open Market Committee of them I all 19 and then the Federal Reserve Board of governance okay so this uh this are the people involved the main job is to set interest rate maintain Financial stability Foster efficient payment system and promote consumer protection okay but of course the main topic today is set interest rates all right so gerum power has been talking about this now in my o a level time where you private a I mean My teacher asked a question guys when this interest rate is going up what will happen to the stock market so generally we all know that interest rate and a stock market have an inverse relationship okay according to all the textbook hence therefore when the interest rate goes up share price supposedly go down all right but the thing is this if you look at the market over the course of time since 2000 and you know every time when the FED Reserve increase interest rate we saw the stock market going up even at the p with the inre interest rate the stock market Contin to go higher so you notice that every time with the fair Reserve increase interest rate the stock market goes higher not lower So based on this statement again if interest rates goes up share price goes down so what will happen if the interest rate goes down so bu right the stock price will go up right but again can you see that it doesn't really happen as a matter of fact whenever the interest rate goes down the stock market goes down H okay so now understand why so a lot of people are very happy to hear from ger power and France that there will be rate C coming in so although we can say that okay there have now the chance of more rate coming in okay and the stock market have have been very strong recently but I believe that this is just going to end very soon so let's take a look what happened now in the November last year 600 Bankers were interviewed and asked about their Outlook of the interest rate enironment 60% of the bankers believe that the fat will not cut rate until the second half of 2024 in fact 22% says that there'll be no drop dropping of rates until 2025 but but but one month ago jum power says that cutting rates premature and says no more says more rate hike could happen but just 18 hours ago all right apparently it seems that right the market is expecting spring Cuts so the question is this why would Fair Reserve cut interest rate right now when they're combating inflation now if the unemployment data is soal rising but not scary the GDP numbers are good as we saw last night and um things are going well earnings are doing well then there's no reason for the fire reserve to cut interest rates you think about it because the the primary idea of cutting interest rate was because to basically combat inflation and inflation the moment is still pretty high right so there's no reason for the FED to really Cut Rate so the thing is this right now let's go back into time since 1955 until now then you tell me let me know what you think so okay so you can see that every time when the fair Reserve increase interest rates you can see that to a high level okay that's where it goes up and you can see that almost every time when the fair Reserve increase interest trade after a while later that will recession that's denoted by the gray area Okay so get idea now now the thing is this do you notice that the moment when they cut interest rates during the recession period This is where we can see that the market is definitely is in a recession so which means that when the Federal Reserve Cuts interest rate during the period of time you notice that the recession period is quite long and they keep on cutting rate keep on cutting rate keep on cutting rate the shortest period was back in 2020 during the covid period right so the question is this why would why would the cutting of rates be an issue because they should be good for the economy right but if you put into the stock market you'll notice that it doesn't really spell the same thing so you look at it right now this is uh CNBC televised uh interview on on yet yet at yini he says that right the fair Reserve is going to make a mistake by lowering interest rate and I totally agree with this statement now who is he now he is is the president and chief investment strategies for yini resar you heard of this before is a very reputable uh research firm and they do a lot of forecast I would say that overall their forecast is quite decently accurate about 80 to 85% and what reminds me was because of this interview back in January last year whereby he was on Bloomberg and they asked him about the stock market now back then itself including myself I be honest here I thought that the market would be coming off right but no in fact he said that in January last year he says that we have made a low in October last 2022 and this was the end of the bare Market wow and I think we are back in the bull market and basically he was spot on because 2023 the market went all the way up the smv was trading at 3949 back then during his interview today we now near almost the 5,000 Mark so basically he spot on and that's the reason why I brought him in the picture again so what he's trying to say right now he belied that okay there is there is a uh although the econom is very good right now but then if the FED Cuts they run the risk of fueling an asset inflation and a possible recession and I totally agree on this statement but of course interestingly the former Stan Louis fed President James bowler we all know that he was um is no uh is no longer in the FC committee but he says that right the fact to begin low rate interest rate before inflation hit 2% he believe that c as soon as March and he will say that the call inflation rate will slow out to 2% before October so the thing is this I kind of like this guy was one of the most hawkish guys during the all the hitting and now he's not not inside there itself so what he says is usually contradict a little bit but I just feel that it's like telling people that you know to be careful okay so when all this tells me I look at the numbers all right so y says that right the speed of the S&P rally Now is really fast we saw that from 4,2 to 409 the market went up 700 points in less than three months so that is very fast about 25% so the thing is this right now everybody is like looking at it okay look H okay um should be careful yeah indeed so this uh yeah D says that right now right the 24% rally all right is really fast for last year and of course he didn't see coming in fact is right he says that this uh he his forecast on end of year is 5,4 but because of even though he's predicing upside he feel that the the Bulls are too fast and this momentum itself if you catch on the wrong side it may cause a big problem because you a sudden change over or Revival of the risk appetite across assets then this will actually change when we all know that usually when the stock market is flying out rocketing very fast usually how fast it goes up it be how fast it will come down if is staggerly going up itself actually a good sign so I also agree with this statement and hence therefore I think that it's time to book some profit on the next day now I told this from a YouTuber and you can see that right he did the mathematics for you guys so you see that every time in Fair Reserve pivoting meaning they cut interest rates right you can see what happened to stock market in 1969 it dropped by 36% in 19 1973 down by 48% in 1981 down by 27% and so forth so based on this right you can see that the moment the FED to Pivot right the stock market will actually come off but more important is before the FED pivot you can see that the market will hit a historical High first then there'll be a wave of selling then the real selling try again after historical High recovery and then selling all right historical High recovery selling got idea now so that means it's three wve that usually happen after or during the Federal Reserve cutting interest rate so again it happened again in back in 2000 Market go historical High then the market show up all the way stopping and then when the first sign of cutting rate is out the market dropped by 51% in year 2000 and course during the lbon bright crisis this was where the market go to new High and then after that when Federal cut rates the market do s die by 58% so it seems that right it's just not a coincidence of cutting rates and then causes stock market Fall In fact it's something that probably we won't know now but the boys knows about it and they they they start to get out of the market because they don't want to be caught at the top and the retailers are jumping in the market because they see that there's no fear there's no worry sign everybody is good that is where the main worry is and because of that right now right you can see this is the NASDAQ chart that I have for you now I don't like the movement right now because you can see very clear with have two days of Black Candle and that's not a good sign because we have seen it before two black candles usually we see some selling right two black candles we see some selling and so forth so to me it's right I think a pullback on the NASDAQ is kind of possible so if you ask me right now I think the NASDAQ will pull back to about 177,000 in the near term or about 500 points drop and then it may stop fall there for a while but it failed to the next Target could be 16,250 all right so this is my call on the NDA so let me know in the comment box all right but of course you'll say h look at it the GDP has grown in an annual rate of 3.3% it's better than the 2% expected so why you need worry about exactly what I'm trying to say now the GDB expanded so well so good and like basically no recession then why the market is not reacting so it could be just um selling on fact so that they can take some profit well it could be or is it because they know that somehow some artificial support has been done to make the numbers look good so the retailers goes in and then get caught while the boys sell to them what you think about this analogy all right so if you look at this right now the vix the vix is still right despite the US market still trading up yesterday the vix itself sell went up and you can see that it's off the the support level that we draw because every time we hit this artificial support right almost every time you can see that the vix will go up but this time around it didn't even come near to it and start to go up so hence therefore I believe that vix will hit 17 within the next few weeks all right I believe that and of course when the vix do hit 17 that means mathematically we should see the Dow Jones on an SDA down by at least three to 5% all right that's how I see it from my perspective all right hopefully I'm wrong for those who are bullish I know you hate me for that but I'm just being facts and figures and of course to wrap it up your s right you ask you like you show you my indicator you can see very clearly that we have a very important information now we have a potential ccyr yellow to red on the day chart happening soon that's why we have the rate arrow and of course the KSI which a big boys indicator is selling although the KRW and the momentum is still bullish so I think that it's a good time to take some profit now today the support level 17423 on the cfd side if the market breaks below the first Target could be 17339 or if not I think this is number that I'm looking at I believe that this will be something that I want say that's about 177,000 for the NASDAQ because it also happened to be nearby the ma30 so with that information I cannot believe that we should be able to have a little bit of movement down on the NASDAQ in the near term so let me know in the comment box how you think about what I share today and hope you like my sharing till then again this Kel off like subscribe and Share my video bye-bye
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