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한 줄 결론: 경기 연착륙/경착륙 여부는 2024년 내 확정되지 않으며, 증시는 리세션 시그널에도 강세를 이어갈 가능성이 있고 궁극적 폭락은 2025년경으로 봄. [래리 핑크 발언 요약] 미국 재정적자가 2000년 8조 달러에서 2023년 33조 달러로 늘어나 구조적으로 강한 인플레이션 압력이 있고, 연준 대차대조표 역시 인플레이션 요인이며 이로 인해 금리는 높은 수준을 유지할 것으로 봄. 투자자는 인내심을 갖고 기다리면 플러스 수익을 낼 수 있다고 언급. [경기 전망] 2024년 중 경착륙·연착륙 모두 나타나지 않을 것으로 전망. IRA·칩스법·인프라법 등 약 9,700억 달러 규모 재정부양이 경기를 떠받치며, 임금협상에서 20~25% 인상도 나타나고 있음. 다만 연준이 금리를 더 올려야 할 것이고 그 결과 약 25년경 경착륙(hard landing) 가능성을 언급. [증시 전망] 현재 현금 금리 5%, S&P 평균 수익률 9% 등을 고려하면 주식이 매력적. S&P500은 최고점 대비 2% 이내까지 랠리할 수 있고, 리세션 2개월 차 무렵에도 상승 가능. 폭락은 2025년경 올 수 있으며 그때 약세 전환 예상. [채권·금리] 채권 숏 포지션은 청산. 은행주 하락은 채권시장 금리 상승 때문이며, 은행들의 미실현 손실은 1,000억 달러 이상. 연준의 긴축과 동시에 대규모 부채 발행이 이뤄지는 '주고받기' 구조로 봄. [달러·환율] 달러는 주요 통화 대비 상대적으로 강해 매도(숏)는 조심스럽다는 입장. 하락 쐐기 가능성은 있으나 저항선 부근이므로 확인 필요. [비트코인·금] 비트코인과 금 모두 강세 흐름. 블랙록 비트코인 현물 ETF 상장·철회·재상장 해프닝을 언급하며 기관이 시장을 흔들 수 있다고 경고. [리스크 및 전략] 저항선에서 롱·지지선에서 숏 금지, 추가 조정 가능성 존재. 시장 낙관론과 비관론이 반복되며 투자자 손실 가능성 언급. 진행자는 확신이 없고 '완벽하지 않다'고 인정. [출연자 전망] 진행자 본인은 증시 상승 지속을 전제로 롱 포지션 유지, 대폭락은 아직 멀다고 봄. 래리 핑크는 금리 장기 고착과 인플레 압력을 강조.
다듬은 글
or start the video off we are going to be jumping right into a clip of Larry thinkink yesterday talking about how he envisions all of this playing out the economy um and whether we get a soft hard or no landing and when perhaps this occurs in fact we think his take is extremely interesting so we thought we'd share it right off the bat he was part of a panel um and we really liked what he had to say and we think it actually aligns with a lot of what we're looking at we know that rates lag I.E the effects of rates lag we do think based on the yield curve based on what's historically always happen with rates that you are going to have a demand destructive event and this is fundamentally where we've disagreed with the Bears we just think they're timing is off and actually this year when we flipped bullish on the markets again despite the high interest rates you know the markets have done um exceptionally well and we think a crash is coming but later on whereas the Bears have been calling for it and it's this reason it's silicon Val whatever it may be um and it just simply hasn't happened and that's because they haven't historically looked at the effects of rates uh in regards to the markets and the relationship with it and actually gold does very well the S&P does very well and usually closes a lot higher by the time they finished uping rates than when they started which is contrary 180 degre to the analysis that many people give and then we're going to be talking about this this tweet has stuck in my head from Bill akman in regards to the fact that he's covering his bond shorts and he's cting the fact that there's a lot of risk out there and that bonds are a safe haven we're seeing a lot of Bank shares do not so well Bank shares look like the bond market you know they're continuing to go down and we're seeing lots of people post on Twitter Twitter's very good it's Twitter's both the best and the worst place for information but Twitter's very good at posting people are very good these big accounts are posting a chart with no context um and there's been lots of charts going around in regards to the banking sector and how it's getting killed in regards to the the the shares um however you know this is as a result of the uh bond market which banks all are mandated to hold uh and most banks I mean Bank of uh America to look at this stop very quickly before we get into everything always got a lot to cover on this channel you know look at this and this is their loss is supposed to be or unrealized loss is 100 billion plus in regards to uh their their bond Holdings although you do have the likes of deuts bank that did 35% better than expected on the prior quarter their shares up 7% today this is the worrying factor for me and this is the soft hard or no landing and it's to do with banks and the bond market you know how does this get resolved do we see the likes of what we saw and this is where things really started the bull market for stocks and stuff when they stepped in with silicon volley bank they did $800 billion worth of stimulus in 2008 they did 400 billion you know um with the Silicon Valley Bank news they're likely going to have to do it again this is inevitability markets do well off that maybe that's why Go's doing so well I'll discuss the sort of Tom Foolery with the listing and then not listing of um black rocks ey shares ETF for Bitcoin uh they've kind of listed it once they unlisted it and now it's listed again institutions are going to play tricks on you this Market is not going to be straightforward um but as long as you have a general or an overview a tactic a guide like the one we're putting forward for you guys on a daily basis you should be able to mitigate that and that's how we've been able to stay along the markets this year uh despite all the bearish rhetoric and volatility and fear and fomo and and it's all a big game guys and we try and keep you on the right side of it um and yeah don't forget to come and check out the website guys we are consistently publishing some of the best articles out there all in crypto.com we're actually launching a newsletter hopefully at the end of this week um which is um um you know going to be interesting so without further Ado guys I want to start off with this clip from Larry thinkink talking about how he envisions this playing out so let's go ahead and get into that we've had a government I'm talking about the US now that in 2000 we had an $8 trillion deficit and today we have a $33 trillion deficit so the deficit is grown by more than a trillion dollars each year over the last 23 years that is highly inflationary the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve um is highly inflationary and so all these different measures um are much more structural much more difficult so as a result of that interest rates are going to remain higher opportunities for investors are going to be able to be very patient um you could do nothing and enjoy a positive return all right so are you expecting a hard Landing or a soft Landing in the United States or you just can't project I would I do not we will not see a hard or a soft Landing in 2024 um the amount of fiscal stimulus that is just entering the economy which is very inflationary the chips act the IRA and the infrastructure acted about $970 billion the largest peacetime non uh pandemic moment of fiscal stimulus at the same time our Central Bank is trying to arrest the economy and and and so that's that that just hitting the J curve uh and and you see u in labor settlements right now what's going on in labor talk 20 25% increases in wages so I I don't see a problem but I do believe the Federal Reserve is going to have to raise rates higher which probably will mean by 25 we may have a sckt we may have a hard liing that is the only way I see how we're going to be arresting this but I don't expect expect it uh anytime soon I think the power of the economy the power of the consumer that Jamie about a lot um is giving me Comfort that the economy is fine the economy is fine people are falling off their chairs and getting angry and typing away on Twitter that um yet it is uh if you look at all the metrics that you weighed up by certainly their metrics and you can call BS on them all you want but that's what we go by that's the Playbook um you know everything seems I don't like to use the word fine because it's far from fine but as far as at face value things seem okay and this ties in with how is it that what we've been talking about now for months and months and months Larry think is now reiterating um and and this is the value of being a subscriber to this channel guys because we do I believe and I've made it my work to understand all of this to the best of my abilities and that's all we're doing we're going to get things wrong constantly you know we we were long on bitcoin when pretty much everyone even people that I very much respect were were extremely bearish and it was all based on sound uh method and uh reasoning and also the interesting Market Dynamic right now is you can have cash and get 5% the average return for the S&P is 9% it's a given the uncertainty that's going on right now it's rewarding the facto that we have for you guys is that the S&P will rally within 2% of its high so 2% of its high thereabouts two months into a recession and if that's not going to come until 2025 our Theory May play out and we may be right um and at that point I don't think there'll be many be left and that's when we then turn bearish uh and we take the money from everyone uh no I'm joking that's a horrible thing to say um but it's reality unfortunately guys the line will always kill the wilderbeast whether you think it's awful or not and that's just nature um so we cover our bond shorts the bond market you know are they going to have to step in and stimulate the interesting thing is they are stimulating they're just not doing it um as outright as perhaps you know the the headlines are they're they're they're tightening they're tightening the being really horrible and restrictive but they're also issuing a load more debt they're you know they're give they're taking with one hand and giving with another and this is how politics works this is all a game guys you know and if you haven't worked that out yet it's a political game um and it's a financial one that they play and the the thing is they are the banker in this game um and we're just trying to work that out um as as as a retail you know I am retail so bitcoin's doing very well Go's doing very well our macro thesis is that the markets are going to do well into a crash and crash is going to come when most people aren't expecting it but we hopefully will be you want to find out what I'm buying where I'm buying how we're playing this in more of an intricate and I share my portfolio please do consider becoming a patreon it's entirely up to you Bank shares getting hit but of course that's to do with the bond market rates going higher that puts more pressure on bonds and and and and other things and we have looked at this potential turning in this risk on period the dollar is just so strong and again I think that's because of the kind of environment that we're in and the and the return you can get in it why wouldn't it be certainly if you compare it with other currencies it's the least sick leper in a leper colony to use Francis Hunt's um analogy uh it's the ugliest or it's the prettiest out of a bunch of uglies um you know it's the fittest out of a bunch of unfit you know uh and that's the dynamic with a dollar and we have looked at potential turning here and of course the correlation here with risk just to pull Bitcoin and the S&P on very quickly is that they'll do well under the back end of it yeah I I'm hesitant to call short on the dollar and and I can't I'm afraid um it could be setting up a bit of a falling wedge that's absolutely a possibility I was looking at this last night before I logged off you know it's not it's not overly weak to be honest um and we'll we'll need to see you know it's running into resistance here my I would like it to roll that would support risk but we'll see they are going to play tricks on you ladies and gentlemen they listed on on the NASDAQ essentially the Clearing House for the NASDAQ the ey shares as if it was already approved then they took it off and then they List It Again these institutions are going to rug you at every point and they're going to and they're in cahoots with the news outlets um they're in cahoots with everyone to do that um because at the end of the day this is how the game works you know is this going to pick up I could see it potentially picking up is there a bit of a wedge like structure in here actually not really um not really at all it's just really a channel and you're just going to wait for the for the upside break of it although you know maybe we can play around with it and we can put it off log and unlog to try and fit our bias like everyone else does uh no that's not what we're trying to do um so we'll see you know we're we're long and strong we're long the markets up until the hits the fan and we don't think that's just yet guys don't forget to come and check out all in crypto.com um it's totally free we're implementing lots of things we just bought a lot of software to integrate with this we plan on being your one One Stop shot for the crypto space quite literally uh and I really do believe in what we're doing and think that we are going to take over the space um maybe I'm crazy let me know in the comments section but yeah that's all we've really got for you guys let me know your thoughts on what Larry think had to say do you agree do you disagree do you um you know if you were bearish have you now flipped bullish I would just to love and leave you on this thought be cautious okay you ran into resistance don't don't long resistance don't short support just like we were telling people down here you had a lot of the decision candles um it's shown us its hand we expect it to continue but that doesn't mean that perhaps you might not get a pullback into uh further continuation this is going to get everyone bearish again because of the nature of the Beast that we're in only for people to get rugged again like they did here um but people get long here and you know and and and and get short of the wrong time so we'll try and keep you up today we're not perfect we're actually far from it um a lot for watching guys I'll catch you all in the next
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