저자: Rupert · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 행정부의 AI 기업 지분 참여와 국가 주도 구조를 냉전기 핵산업 사례에 비유하며 AI 밸류에이션 상승을 전망. 미국 단기 국채 민간 보유 증가와 스테이블코인(USDT) 성장을 연결해 암호화폐가 법정화폐 체제를 강화한다고 주장. 비트코인은 하락추세로 50K까지 하락 가능성, 이더리움·전체 시총·USDT 도미넌스도 추가 하락 여지를 제시. 중동 지정학 리스크로 달러·금리·인플레 상승 및 AI 과열 완화를 예상. 톰 리 발언 인용해 올해 후반 약세장 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, and welcome back, ladies and gentlemen. Rupert here, and this is going to be another jam-packed daily market update. As you can see, we're not in our normal location. I'm sure I will get some Bulgarian Prime Minister-esque comments. However, do not let that deter from what we're going to be talking about today.
We've got some really important topics that as an investor you should be paying attention to. Um we'll relate this to crypto, of course. We've got something very interesting to look at with crypto in relation to stable coins. Actually, Tether overtook Ethereum on the recent down leg that we were expecting here um on the channel.
Um and we'll look at the bigger plan in relation to all of this. But, where I want to start is with what Trump said in relation to this kind of public-private relationship that's forming as far as AI is concerned. And actually, almost the nationalization of the AI industry. And this is very similar, I think, uh and we we've already saw the steps to them investing in quantum computing companies, many of which we were looking at.
This is very similar to the Cold War and the kind of um public-private relationship that we saw in regards to nuclear. Of course, that saw companies double, triple, quadruple 10x in terms of market cap as a result of the direct government involvement. I think we're going to see a similar thing for AI.
The question is or the interesting thing is AI is already you would argue, I don't know if inflated's the right word, but at a at a kind of high point um when all of this is kicking off. So, what does all that mean? Well, we're going to explore it. Great opportunity in this, and it's relevant to the second thing that we're going to get on to, which is to do with um outstanding treasuries and the burden of those outstanding treasuries that has to be paid.
They're going to have to at least try and explore or go down the route of stable coins to solve the kind of monetary system. And it's interesting because we actually saw Tether just to get straight on to this, overtake Ethereum on Friday. And this is interesting because crypto is given to us as this alternative fiat system.
Well, actually what we are seeing is that crypto is doing more for the fiat system in regards to propagating it than deterring it. Um and we're going to explore that. We'll look at Tether, and of course we'll relate all this to the crypto space having a bit of a bounce today. It's going to be short-lived in my opinion, and even Tom Lee, the biggest bull in the room, certainly the the the the Ethereum guy, is now actually calling for a bear market later on this year.
Um interesting and talking about that, what we've been looking at, which is this slowing down in AI accelerant or acceleration of the markets. And we've said that's likely going to come because of the geopolitical wrecking ball that is still to take place. We think the dollar's going to go up. We think yields are going to go up.
We think inflation's going to go up as a result of oil. That should dampen AI, not kill, not burst the bubble, but dampen it. I think that's going to lean on crypto to to sort of link that all back. So, let's kick things off with what Trump said over the weekend, pretty big. Great AI companies that you're taking these equity stakes.
I guess we'll have to sell all of them or You know, there's a concept out there that's so much money and it's so big that there are concepts where pieces could be given to the American public where the American public essentially becomes a partner with the company with the companies. And I will tell you, yeah, I have I have some with all of them.
There's something very interesting about it where it almost becomes a partnership with the American public. And we'll look into that. We're going to We are looking I actually have a meeting scheduled in the very short very near future with Did you know that? With all of the companies, and we're talking about it where the American people can benefit from the success of AI.
And by doing that, they're going to like it better. Because we're leading China, we're leading everybody in the world with AI, and we want to keep it that way. It's probably the biggest industry maybe that we've ever seen. Which companies are meeting? All of them. All the big ones? All the big ones, yeah.
All the big ones. They're all coming to the White House probably next week. Now, I'm under no illusion that that's very timely given the midterms that are um coming up. Um and I actually spoke with I know Arthur Hayes is not very popular at the moment because of his dumping of near hype um what was the other one?
Zec? Zcash? And we've we we've unraveled all of that story. Um and recently World um I interviewed him and we actually spoke about the concepts of that and obviously we won't be sharing the the the stuff around near and stuff, but he had a really good macro take and that was a pushback against these AI companies to filter into the midterms and how that could dampen the stock market.
This could be the other route. But but but more importantly as an investor, like if you understand the significance of AI, you want to be investing in it. I I have really one we we've called so many um plays around AI buildout and got them so perfectly right, but I have one that I personally own that I think is you know, it it's in the sort of teens.
I think it gets into the multiple hundred dollars in terms of um an investment that I currently hold. You want to know that do become a patron. This is not alien in the sense that even Korea are looking at this. And obviously the Korean stock market, SK Hynix I think is 40 plus percent or not SK Hynix, the Kospi is 40 something plus percent.
Samsung and SK uh which are uh memory plays effectively or AI buildout plays and you know, you can see that uh they are now looking at um the immediate focus is on how government should handle the expected tax increases, whether to use it for fiscal spending, save it as a buffer, or invest it in future generations.
The finance minister Koo Yun-cheol Cheol said the government plans to channel a significant portion of future excess tax revenues into sovereign wealth fund using the proceeds to build long-term investment resources for future generations. When the economy is strong and excess tax revenue emerges again, we will put part into a sovereign wealth fund, Koo said in a local YouTube interview Saturday.
YouTube's become the platform, hasn't it? We will invest it, generate returns, and create a virtuous cycle that expands national wealth, national tax revenue, which stayed at 340 trillion won to 370 trillion won uh ranged from 2023 to 2026 is projected to reach 415 trillion won this year under the supplementary budget, according to government officials.
Some forecasts put the figures into the 500 trillion. Samsung Electronics and SK uh Hynix posted stronger than expected first quarter earnings. So, you are going to look, I believe, at the nationalization of of it's it's effectively nationalization to a degree of it's not really um of AI companies and and and and the reason being is because there's something similar going on to to to to the kind of nuclear struggle.
Um and I think this is going to be a mid-term election deployment. And it you know, everybody's kind of expecting the stock market to crash as a result of the shallow nature of it. We saw some moves in the breadth uh indicators. Um they might stave that off at least with some of what they're going to announce.
Eventually, you are going to get that slowing down. I think that happens on the geopolitical situation, which is clearly not solved. Just yesterday or overnight, we actually saw more progress in regards to and the US reporting on this officially, and them taking out more drones from Iran. So that situation clears and solves and I think it kind of ties into this next topic that we're going to discuss because there's a broader shift taking place.
The old economic world is still going to be there but less relevant and actually you want to try and figure out what this new world that we're heading towards is all about and it's one that is all about AI, it's all about, you know, continued money proliferation and and and new forms of value and I think or even old forms of value taking present.
I think we've seen this with what silver and gold have initiated even though I think that they're potentially going to sell off with this kind of more risk off short-to-mid-term vibe. Um there's this kind of change taking place in the world and you need to understand that if you are a fear holder and and and try and hedge that.
The best way to do that I believe is with investments. This is really interesting. The US government is becoming increasingly dependent on private investors to finance its growing debt burden. Privately held US Treasury debt maturing in one year is up a was up to a record 8.3 trillion. Okay? This figure has doubled over the past 5 years reflecting the government's growing reliance on short-term financing from private investors.
As more debt shifts into Treasury bills a larger amount must be refinanced every year leaving borrowing costs increasingly sensitive to interest rates and investor demand. And oh by the way, I think they go higher, okay? Uh in terms of interest rates in my opinion. We've been suggesting that. Now it's starting to get priced in uh and we think that comes off the yields which is a still an unsolved problem.
This all lies on stable coins or relies on stable coins moving forward I think. It says at the same time foreign central banks are reducing their share of Treasury holdings making private investors absorb a larger portion of new issuance. As a result the Treasury market is becoming increasingly dependent on investor demand and liquidity conditions rather than the stable long-term buyers that have traditionally anchored it.
This is because of the broader monetary shift going on. With the US public debt at all-time highs, even modest distribution in funding markets could have an outsized impact on borrowing costs. Treasury refinancing Treasury refinancing risks are intensifying. Who is going to buy all this short-term dated debt?
Well, who's been buying it and who's going to continue to buy it and actually going to you're going to see more players step in like Ripple, like Circle. You know, the plan is stablecoins. And bear in mind this is from the 5th of March last year. So, this is probably only intensified. Tether was the seventh largest buyer of US Treasuries in 2024 compared to countries.
This is only going to continue drastically. And is this the bigger plan and was this the bigger plan all along with crypto? Tether is now the second largest cryptocurrency having overtaken Ethereum. Could it one day overtake Bitcoin? It's not out of the realms of possibilities and and this is the US government's plan, ladies and gentlemen.
So, the irony here is this industry was given to us to combat the fiat systems, the corrupt fiat systems, and the cabal behind them. At least that's the narrative we were given. We've seen who the early participation potatoes potatoes potatoes participators in Bitcoin were from those files that released and who the fundings of the early developers were.
And I'm a big fan of Roger Ver's book, um, Hijacking Bitcoin. Now, what we see and Hijacking Bitcoin mean that that the original story was correct. Simon Dixon I think has an interesting take on that. Now, what we're seeing is actually crypto being used to propagate the fiat systems. And I think what you want to look at is players as a result of this.
We spoke about a short-term target that very much signaled this pullback for crypto. Target made, pullback, you know, Bitcoin crypto generally up a little bit today cuz it's got hit very hard and you'll get these kind of buy the dip mentality individuals. They get crushed again, eventually I think. I don't know if it's going to be that much more.
And we'll look at that with patrons later. Um but the scary thing here with Tether, not only has it overtaken Ethereum and I think it'll continue to gain ground and actually close the gap with Bitcoin, not probably for for for the foreseeable future. But this is now potentially on the course to break out into new all-time highs.
This could even be a structure here, by the way, that we were looking at. And what would this mean? Well, it probably means adoption of stable coins because the US need to adopt stable coins at this point. And further downside for crypto. Uh USD C dot dominance, I haven't looked at in a while. Yeah, look at this.
Very clear uptrend, textbook, you know, we look at markets in phases. You can learn all that with me. Um yeah. Uptrend for stable coins is going to continue. It's part of a bigger plan. I still think you're going to get that dampening as far as the markets are concerned. You know, Bitcoin is still in a downtrend.
It's shown no signs of bottoming as of yet. Doesn't mean that that doesn't come, you know, we'd be looking for divergences. This leg lower has created what we I mean, we were looking at this, a bit of a bullish divergence if this was to bottom here, just like you saw over here. Something for us to watch.
But that doesn't mean you don't, you know, that you you get that kind of capitulation. Certainly this bear flag would dictate that Bitcoin gets to 50K. Ethereum still has lower price targets. We're perfect on Ethereum. Total market cap still has lower price targets. USDT dom has made its target. Um we'll just look at we'll pick on XRP.
Still has lower to go in my opinion. Have you got those divergences on the weekly on this, I wonder? Anyway, I still think XRP can get to No, you don't. So, we'll wait for that. Um, obviously we still thinking long on XRP gets to $19. Last thing for me to do, I guess, is play a very short clip of Tom Lee, who's now bearish.
I mean, you couldn't make this up. And yeah, rightfully so. Ethereum still got lower to go. Um, you'll see this low taken out, in my opinion. Where does that put BMNR, which I was once a holder of, we pivoted out of? We have been looking at this. This was very flag-esque, in my opinion. You're broken.
You know, where's this going to take you, just looking at this as a flag, if I was to do this? Yep, watch out for this. Watch out for 11. And that This might be an indication in regards to the crypto space more broadly. Okay, let's get into Tom Lee, and then I'm going to love and leave you all. I think the market did have a parabolic lift uh in the last month.
And now I think there's uh some sobering taking place because expectations are higher, but I also think that SpaceX um it it's $75 billion is a lot to ask the public to fund. So, I think it is a big lift in terms of how you're going to fund that purchase. And so, I think now when the stock wobbled a little bit, I think people are raising cash.
I don't think that this is the start of a broader correction yet, but I as you know, we do think that later this year there there's going to some be something that feels like a bear market.
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