저자: AllinCrypto진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 수요는 성장 중이나 버블 우려 존재, 엔비디아 P/E 약 17로 닷컴 버블과 비교해 과열 아님 주장. 암호화폐는 상대적으로 견조하며 웨지 패턴·역헤드앤숄더 근거로 반등 기대. 달러 강세 및 채권금리 문제는 개입 필요성으로 연결. 지정학(중동, 러-우크라) 및 프랑스 시위 언급, 유가 급등 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
The demand for computing power is growing faster than the supply. So I see nothing but a bubble. I see a growing deficit. There is a shortage of qualified personnel, energy resources, chips, and memory. So , across the entire supply chain, from workers to cutting-edge computer chips, we have shortages.
I know that many are afraid of a bubble . I'm more afraid that we won't be able to realize this opportunity and ensure America's victory in the AI race. Ladies and gentlemen, happy Monday! This week was predicted as a potential " Black Monday," meaning one where markets would be hit very hard . Looking at Asian markets, UK markets, oil and cryptocurrencies, this is not yet observed.
Of course, at the time of recording this video, the US markets had not yet opened. I'm not suggesting for a second that we trust Larry Fink, but I agree with his statement that AI is indeed moving markets, and I believe it will continue to do so , given our place in this expansion. The last time markets showed such growth relative to the USM2 money supply was during the rise of the Internet.
Today we are at a similar turning point, and of course, such powerful force will be accompanied by volatility. There have been many fears in recent weeks. I think the main takeaway from the cryptocurrency space is that it is holding up extremely well . Let me talk a little bit about the fears about the AI bubble and give one of the many reasons why it is not the case.
Here we have Nvidia's revenue. You can see that this covers the period until the second quarter of 2026 . You see that the forecasts go all the way to the fourth quarter of 2027. You can also see the current P /E ratio applied to it . Nvidia seems to have it at around 17. That doesn't sound too much like a bubble, does it?
Especially when compared to the past , when markets were heated by technological innovation—the dot-com “boom” and the subsequent crash. Look at some of the P/E ratios that the markets were trading at back then. And in terms of AI, I think Nvidia and Micron are really leading the S&P . And of course, with some concerns , and I think, you know, the de- leveraging that's happening around AI, it's kind of shaken things up a bit.
However, the really important takeaway, and we'll move on to price action, we have a lot to discuss, is how well cryptocurrency is holding up in the face of what some are predicting as an apocalypse. That is, this is, in fact, the price dynamics of the cryptocurrency during this period of time. It's really, yes, in percentage terms, maybe more than indices and things like that in the traditional world.
But as far as cryptocurrency goes, you know, it's holding up relatively well. And I consider this more of a "bullish" signal, rather than a " bearish" one. If the AI bubble burst, you would see a much stronger reaction. So all eyes are on the US markets and how they will open. I think Kospi rose a bit today.
You see that futures are rising. The dollar was slightly stronger today. It increased by 0.16%. Not sure where that 0.22% increase came from. I don't know where this strength came from, because at the opening it was relatively stable. Oil is falling. Bond yields remain a problem. And ultimately, I think it requires something that becomes a real driver that not only strengthens AI from a market perspective, but also markets in general.
I think what is happening with yields in debt markets requires only one thing— intervention, which is ultimately what the broader cryptocurrency space was created for. I also think that it's not just AI that raises concerns, they usually arise whenever geopolitical events occur. There have been many developments in the Persian Gulf over the past week, as well as regarding Russia and Ukraine.
This is an interesting headline. Putin reportedly proposes a trilateral summit with Trump and Xi on the war in Ukraine without Zelensky. Of course, here's another interesting headline. France has been gripped by its worst unrest in years as attempts to curb public spending have sparked public anger.
Hmm, I see. Yes. It's interesting that Macron spoke out and, apparently, it's all Trump's fault. I'm sure he has a lot to answer for, but like us in the United Kingdom, the French and the British have usually had an interesting past, as do relations today. But we can unite in the realization that our governments have failed us.
And I'm not saying that's why there are riots, but we share this commonality with the rest of Europe. So, "Black Monday" didn't turn out quite like that. I actually think cryptocurrency is going to do pretty well, and I'll tell you why that is , from a technical perspective. Many "wedge" patterns, many setups, potentially this week could be positive after such a depressing last week.
Just interesting news that I find relevant, as it's basically straight out of Alex Karp's book on the formation of these public-private relationships. Anthropic transfers 5% of its shares to a public benefit fund. The AI company announced the creation of a public benefit fund with an initial 5% equity stake pending approval and the potential to increase as the value increases, bringing the total commitment to about 20% of the equity for public good, alongside founder and employee commitments structured as a flexible LLC, etc.
Just to emphasize this, and of course, Elon Musk is promising SpaceX shares to every child in the US. This is all part of that public-private relationship that Alex Karp, who is, of course, the CEO of Palantir, prophesied. You know, we'll see how that accelerates, and it actually has to happen in the face of free market erosion, and we see that as far as the elements or the debt obligations are concerned.
So, why do we think we have a good week ahead of us ? Well, typically you get some relief, I think as a base case scenario after some of the volatility and suppression that we've seen in the stock market over the last few weeks. It is important to note that the cryptocurrency is holding up surprisingly well and is actually still holding support.
Believe it or not, this is similar to what you did here, and we believe that the same future path awaits you. We also have the same technical structure and inverted head and shoulders pattern. You know, there are a lot of things that give us technical justification that the cryptocurrency space may have bottomed out and has broader growth potential ahead.
The dollar really plays a key role here, and we are likely seeing the formation of a bear flag that began forming back on June 30, 2025. The development of this situation could become the fundamental factor that will lead to interventions in markets that are currently under great pressure, in particular debt markets.
So, we have a lot of confirmation regarding the cryptocurrency market and where we see it from a technical perspective. It is very important that we have received additional confirmation after this extremely difficult week, especially regarding crypto miners, AI development, and conversations about network technologies.
I think there is a significant reduction in leverage there, and we see this as a pullback before the continuation of the movement, because technological innovation will continue to stimulate the markets, and this is the tide that lifts all boats. Cryptocurrencies are holding up surprisingly well, and on the smaller timeframes, if you look at this pullback, we see the classic wedge structure that we like to track; we even have a course on the wedge that is worth taking.
They all have similar characteristics and these three phases of movement. It's like a golf ball bouncing and losing power. And usually after that, a player comes and hits him again—that's what we might be seeing now. For us, the falling wedge is a correction pattern. This is a four-hour chart for Ethereum.
You can see that everything is very classic: volumes decrease and then increase sharply at certain moments and intervals. One, two, three. I believe this move is ahead, and in the next few weeks, if the price refreshes below the lows, the scenario will be reversed, and as Bitcoin approaches support, we see some market clearing.
I'm about 50/50 on whether we need a broader pullback, but from a technical perspective, cryptocurrencies look stable . On the shorter timeframes, Ethereum looks very bullish and promising, and I think we will see a move back to the 2800 level. I will look at a few others, because cryptocurrencies are quite highly correlated in terms of price movement, so it is no coincidence that when you see a falling wedge on Ethereum, you also see it in the market as a whole.
Um, Lumen, Stellar Lumens, which is one of our favorite cryptocurrencies, is currently worth 17 cents. We believe it will rise to 23 cents. We have a price prediction that I think will shock most of you, and we have a strong technical basis for it in the long term. Um, that's why we're involved in this, so to speak, and I think the fundamental story that goes with it is very strong.
Um, we have XRP here. Very, very similar. This falling wedge is quite steep, you know, you had a kind of wide pullback. I mean, it's like a textbook. I'd be surprised if he did n't break through, guys. Um, I think you'll probably see this pattern develop with the opening of the US markets. And then there's Solana, you know, it's obviously coming out of a short-term, um, downtrend.
And if you compare this to the broader context that Bitcoin has bottomed out, it seems to have broken out and is now rolling back. It sets a higher high for the first time since October 10, 2025. I, I think you have all the prerequisites for continued upward movement for, um, the markets. In fact, all eyes are now on, um, the opening of US markets.
Um, the dollar is kind of a key factor for us, you know, oil—it's, it's a concern, um, but, you know, what's the solution here? The fact that they're just raising interest rates, while you have a kind of accumulation of oil prices. I mean, you know, there's a possibility that oil could hit $175 a barrel.
I don't think the markets will like it, but it depends on what, um, ultimately, um, the reaction to it will be . I mean, when you talk about the same thing that markets are expressed in , that's the reason why we're all in crypto. Um, it's a fiat system. And it's only moving in one direction, and that's the continuation of the spread and, um, devaluation, and therefore, um, the escape from it, um, as we move towards a world where value, you know, is fundamentally perceived differently and can be exchanged, and crypto, of course, is the tool that makes all of that possible.
Ladies and gentlemen, that's all from me. I will say goodbye to you all. No Black Monday yet. Let's see how the US markets open. We'll be back to tell you all about developments tomorrow. That's all from me, guys. Thank you for watching. See you soon.
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