저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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엔비디아는 단순 칩 제조사를 넘어 AI·메타버스·자율주행의 운영체제로, 시가총액이 크게 성장할 잠재력이 있다고 주장. 인프라 투자 후 애플리케이션이 따라온다는 인터넷 역사 논리를 근거로 제시. 향후 18~24개월 내 상승 가능성이 높다고 봄. 다만 3~5년 뒤 시총 4~5조달러가 100조달러 경제를 떠받칠 수 있는지는 의문 제기. 자막 후반부는 Fed 금리인하 기대(63.7%)와 Nasdaq 반등, 포트폴리오 조정 및 메타 비중 축소 등 일반 시장 코멘트 중심.
다듬은 글
Nvidia is more than simply a chip manufacturer it is the operating system of the future including I the metaverse and driverless cars Nvidia is the key to these trillion doll markets folks we're talking about a 50x potential it's obvious it's not a gamble Up Until Now intel was essentially the mother of all contemporary Computing right the CPU in my opinion was the most essential component that made local PCS networking and the internet possible using its market capitalization as an example it is currently at $180 billion you can probably calculate the economy It produced and supports in a trillion 2 trillion or perhaps 5 trillion let's just be incredibly giving shall we as a result you may observe that there is a ratio between an economy facilitator and its size and that these factors are typically fixed and persistent Microsoft's market capitalization is correlated with the economy it supports therefore I wouldn't ask Nvidia whether it won't increase in the next 18 to 24 months it most likely will for the very reason you mentioned all of the algorithms that trade the press releases will push the price higher and it is perfectly positioned to offer excellent meat and beat guidance for the street which they will devour all of this will just produce an upward Trend the more important question in my opinion is whether a market valuation of $4 or5 trillion in the next 2 or 3 years will be able to sustain an economy worth $100 trillion for such ratios to hold you would have to believe that if not everything on the internet has just broken Microsoft showed its adaptability and foresight by using its Market leadership in OS systems to break into and dominate other software areas including server software Enterprise Solutions and even entertainment with Xbox in addition to diversifying its sources of income this mult prom strategy solidified its position as a full service technology supplier even if it was difficult to foresee them at the time the internet's history shows that if you build it they will come this means that if you invest in the capital assets required to power the next generation of applications those applications will eventually be built during the bubble and subsequent crisis in the late 1990s there was a massive expansion of servers and other networking equipment as well as a massive fiber roll out by all of the Telecom firms Additionally the Telecom businesses had a peak similar to that of Cisco it was worse you know since wcom and many of them went bankrupt the issue was that a lot of the construction was done with debt which is why many of them failed when the.com bust hit and all the values Came Crashing Down yes Cisco wasn't in that situation but my point is that everyone believed that these Telecom Giants had overinvestment meltdown occurred in the early 2000s in the end all that fiber was put to use dialup internet gig way to broadband you know applications such as social networking and streaming began to consume that bandwidth the history of these things in my opinion is that if you construct the infrastructure to support them the applications will eventually be written and built as someone who is more of an application investor I believe that the fascinating part about AI is that we are only only beginning to see the vast amount of new ideas and applications that will be developed additionally it will be B2B in addition to b2c that hasn't actually been brought up by you folks these cloud data centers that are purchasing all of these gpus are not only going to be used by customers and consumer applications it will also involve Enterprises businesses are utilizing AI Google cloud and other Technologies therefore I believe there is yet a lot to come we're only the start of a trend that will most likely continue for at least 10 years all right so we're giving the nas a little boost as you can see it's down around a third of a percent today but it's ripped a lot since Monday a couple weeks ago I bring it up because Bill baru calls in to join us well he's moving around in that area now and in an interesting way a few names have been removed including viia Apple Amazon Google and meta at the end is that synopsis would you mind explaining the rationale behind the removal of these Mega cap names yes without a doubt I came across several names and cut them all down to between 10% and 20% listen following that significant volatility event we have had eight days in a row of positive trading following that event I appeared on the show a few times to share all of the purchases I was making however four rate cuts that were priced in with a 63.7% likelihood also contributed to this rise well last week's better than expected retail sales and better than expected unemployment numbers kind of contribute to this Friday's viewer pal furthermore the NASDAQ just closed the gap between its previous closing and the earnings of Google alphabet and Tesla I'm just taking a step back and monetizing this move because I'm afraid that if Fed chair Powell isn't too dovish it would be interpreted is hawkish there is a lot of resistance right now as a result I'm making a lot of these cuts to my top five stocks in my Diversified portfolio synopsis Apple Amazon Nvidia and alphabet and I'm raising roughly 3% of the cash by more evenly allocating the names throughout the remainder of the portfolio for the next few weeks this affords me flexibility sta also mentioned that September is a volatile month so I want to be prepared for that we only own 10 names there but we cut our largest stake meta by around 24% this was actually to cover meta and our concentrated portfolio which we trimmed overall right now I have nothing against any of these names the goal is to give people additional options in the upcoming weeks okay so there may be some danger ahead let's see what transpires with your cherished stock I'm going to advise you to purchase it with caution Tyler you have to wade into that water if you don't own it the Market's hottest spot is here this stock will perform well as long as a competition to develop Ai and the race to develop I itself continue over the next 5 years they still anticipate a 40% increase in this company's earnings with this significant profits growth it has decreased from 48 times earnings in 2024 to 34 times earnings in the following year well it's done in a wonderful way well it's a cyclical region even if it only has a few years left I believe the a momentum propelling those earnings will propull this stock to new heights even at a$3 trillion Doll Market valuation therefore I believe this is a dollar cost average if you wish to establish a position in other words I would like a position if this area were left empty it can be a suitable risk for your portfolio but it must be consistent with your investment philosophy and discipline and need not be a whole position consult your adviser bargain won't last long so don't pass it up hurry immediately as requested only grammatical errors were fixed
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