Michael Burry Warns that Hell is Coming and Stocks Will Get Crushed

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한 줄 결론: 마이클 버리는 기업 실적 호황이 마지막이며 인플레이션과 재고 과잉으로 기업이익과 성장주가 크게 무너질 수 있다고 경고하고, 영상은 이를 차트로 뒷받침한다. 버리의 주장: 이번 실적 시즌이 긍정적 실적의 마지막일 수 있으며, 경기침체와 함께 주가·이익이 급락할 수 있다. 최상위 성장주는 90% 이상 폭락할 수 있다는 경고. 인플레이션과 이익의 관계: 물가 상승 초기에는 기업이익이 늘지만 과도해지면 수요가 꺾여 이익이 감소한다는 차트 해석. 현재 CPI 급등이 이익 둔화 신호라고 봄. 재고와 경기: 소매 재고가 계속 늘고 있으며, 소비자가 고가 상품을 감당하지 못하고 재고가 줄기 시작하면 해고와 침체로 이어진다고 봄. 월마트가 일반 상품 수요 둔화와 이익 급감을 언급한 점을 근거로 제시. 마이크로소프트 등 빅테크: 실적 호조로 4% 상승했으나 넷플릭스·스냅챗·월마트 등은 실적 실망으로 하락. 마이크로소프트가 25% 하락했어도 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 연준과 주식시장: 연준이 주가 하락을 원한다는 해석. 주식시장이 물가의 선행지표가 되며, 주가 하락→인플레이션 둔화 구도. 최근 S&P500 약 4% 반등으로 금융여건이 완화된 점은 연준에 부담. 고용: 구인건수(JOLTS)가 역대 세 번째로 크게 감소. 연준은 실업자가 생겨도 일자리 여유가 있다고 보고 긴축을 유지할 것으로 전망. 그러나 구인은 주식시장과 신규주문에 선행한다는 차트 해석으로 고용 둔화 예상. 원자재·제조업: 제조업 PMI 52.8로 하락, 신규주문 48로 침체 신호. 지불가격지수 급락, 원유(WTI) 가격 둔화가 향후 인플레이션 둔화를 예고. 결론적 전망: 9월에 한 번 더 금리인상 후, 연말에는 연준이 대폭 금리인하로 돌아설 수 있다는 시나리오. 리스크: 주식시장 급락 가능성, 연준 정책 전환 시점 불확실, 차트 해석의 주관성. 출연자 전망: 버리(외부 인용)는 기업이익 정점 통과와 대형 성장주 폭락 가능성을 경고; 영상 진행자는 연준의 주가 하락 유도 의도와 연말 금리인하 시나리오를 제시.

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01. Michael burry warns that hell is coming and stocks will get crushed ry from the movie The Big Short is back in the news saying that this is the last hurray for corporate earnings as stocks and earnings are going to get crushed that's over we picked today's story up as big short Michael burry Rings Ernie's alarm after a recession call Michael burry warned that this could be the last set of positive company earnings for a while as he expects inflation and overstocking to Pummel corporate profits and is even caution that the best growth stocks could plummet by 90 percent or more the current crop of upbeat company earnings might be in the final raise of sunshine for investors before demand dries up and the U.S economy slumps into a session Michael burry warned those earnings reports and by Joe the whole season have a last to Raw feel he said since his deleted tweet on Tuesday but is there some evidence to support this well we've looked at the yield curve over those past several shows and we have seen that there's strong evidence that as the FED continues to tighten and the bond market says hey you're making a mistake that something is going to come crashing down later this year the fund manager of The Big Short Fame was likely referring to Microsoft and alphabet after the big Tech do a solid Financial results sent their respective stock prices up as much as four percent in pre-market trading on Wednesday the contrast investors have punished the likes of Netflix Snapchat and Walmart in recent weeks after their earnings disappointed but Barry predicted earlier this year that inflation would squeeze Shoppers in a road consumer spending while Overstock retailers would be forced to slash prices to get rid of excess inventory eating into corporate profits and choking economic growth in the coming months but is there evidence to support that inflation does have that effect on Corporal profits well it does and we'll take a look at this chart here well we've got corporate profits in blue against the Consumer Price Index on a year over year rated change in red and what you can note is that early on as prices rise well that's good for companies because it means they're charging more and making a bigger profit but as inflation gets too hot notably demand starts to fall off and you can see corporate prophets Wayne and then there's other times where inflation is fairly moderate not really moving up too much but staying fairly level and that means corporate profits really aren't moving higher because again companies need these higher prices to and justify bigger profit margins but now look at the end here we see this big move in the CPI and it buries right the signals that corporate profits at least this last quarter may be it for companies and going into the second half of this year it's going to get a lot worse but what about retailer inventories well they're Rising too and we'll note as we see that they've been on a long trending up uptrend here for a long time as you see in blue but notably as consumer prices rise you see inventories rise too and it's not until that breaks where consumers just can't afford these higher priced goods and retailers and wholesalers have no choice but to start laying off people that sends us into a recession of course demand Falls inventories get drawn down and and how they they get drawn down by lower prices Asbury has said that is coming later this year in fact we've already seen some signs that that's starting to happen and we can see now that of course inflation being really hot and and inventories being high that that is likely to come down but Walmart essentially confirmed an Investor's thesis this week as the mega retailer complained that high food and fuel prices are sapping demand for general merchandise in stores is marked down unsold goods and expects a sharp decline in profits this year as a result bury has previously suggested that Microsoft shares down 25 percent could tumble much further based on their much higher trading volumes fall into.com crash and financial crisis he also cautioned that a wave of weak earnings might double the already sharp declines for stocks and crypto and even the best growth stocks might plummet in value given Amazon's 90 plus decline after the.com bubble and while it's hard to predict the tech stocks could crash 90 or more if they did talk about an incredible buying opportunity but right now stocks are seemingly headed the other direction and that is bad news for the FED as shock July stock rally was a monster the FED may regret seeing as Financial conditions have oddly eased despite super sized fed raid hikes and believing they heard a dovish tilt from Jerome Powell Traders pushed the S P 500 up nearly four percent over two days and kept buying as of Friday last weekend have continued into this week welcome as it was by Bulls the spike raises a question of whether the rebound itself starts to work against the goal of draining blowed from the economy it's an issue investors must weighing calculating the recovery staying power a dynamic in which surging stocks complicate the goal of subduing inflation is one reason giant rallies are rare in times of tightening and while the FED may be ambivalent about equities in general the role markets in mediating the real world economic lever Financial conditions means they're never completely out of mind and right now those conditions are loosening in proportion of the s p 500's gains could that be a concern from Powell well absolutely is a concern because believe it or not the FED wants lower stock prices now I know this sounds odd to some people saying well won't the FED run in and save the world if prices go down well actually I'm about to show you why they really want stock prices to come down because if they can engineer the stock market coming down without impacting the broad economy they can bring inflation down at the same time and here you can see we'll look at the Wilshire 5000 price index the U.S stock in total U.S stock index on a year-over-year rate change against the CPI also on a year-over-year rate change and that in red and notice we see this relationship wasn't that strong in the 80s and 90s but now you can see as the stock market slows its growth down and gets near the zero well inflation eventually starts to slow down as the stock market goes down inflation Falls and now we see the stock market in blue becoming leading indicator for inflation suggesting that yes the FED does want to bring stock prices down they do want to engineer a market crash and if you're concerned at all what that could mean to your portfolio well you shouldn't be because there's one strategy that Hedges Market crashes and downturns that's portfolio Shield the FED has some other problems as we saw in the news today and that's job openings are still really high suggesting the labor market is tight and we need further hikes labor market cracks his job openings suffered third biggest plunge on record this headline from Zero Hedge as monks of stubbornly refusing to budge and putting the FED in an increasingly more awkward place forcing the central bank to keep hiking even as the economy entered a tactical recession moments ago the BLS reported that the June job openings and labor turnover survey finally cracked as a number of job openings while still elevated 10.698 million plunged by near record 605 000 in June the third biggest drop on record was only covet crash seeing bigger drops and badly missing the consensus of 11 million but is this really an issue and the answer is no because we know that the FED loves the Joel serving in fact it was former Fed chair Janet yellen's one of her favorite data points that she looked at and helped guide monetary policy but see the FED doesn't care that much if you lose your job as we've seen on this show we're noticing an increase at least a steady increase in initial claims now this will eventually be a problem but the FED says not to worry because if you lose your job they're looking at the data on this jolt saying look there's probably two or more jobs available for you no problem that you can go find another one so as long as this remains High the FED is going to remain in tightening mode with no sign of pause but is this data likely to come down well yes because we look here at the Philly fed current new orders data and compare that to the jolt survey and what we see is that new orders are indeed a leading indicator of jobs because if a company has fewer new orders well they don't need as many people to either sell it move it or have anything or to produce it but what is the real leading leading indicator for the job market well you might be surprised to know that's the stock market here you can see the Wilshire 5000 overlaid in red with or in blue overlaid in red with the jolt survey and you'll note as the stock market starts to slow its growth well indeed employers stop hiring as many people start trying to reduce those job openings as the market heads down those openings go close and sure enough we see periods of flat markets where job openings start to head lower here we see it again and now the stock market being the leading indicator suggesting as we know that the U.S economy is the stock market again validating the FED wants to bring the market down bring all the inflation and job openings down and that will end inflation but can they do it without crashing everything well it seems quite unlikely as we head over now as a follow-up story to our chief strategist Jeff Schneider who notes in this daily that the manufacturing PMI from fell from 52.8 in July just down slightly or fell 252.8 in July from 53.0 in June and he notes that another big drop in New orders to 48 indicates there's more recession like paying ahead for the manufacturing sector in terms of that inflation Trend prices paid dropped almost 20 points to 60.0 indicating that the commodity slump is finally starting to have effect now what does Jeff mean about by this well let me show you and by the way if you want to get more of Jeff's research and mine and Tracy shoe charts there's a link in the description for markets Insider Pro or you can go to marketsinsiderpro.com it's free for a limited time but here's what Jeff means because he's suggesting that there is a relationship between the commodity market and consumer prices and sure enough there absolutely is here you can see in blue the year over year rate change of West Texas intermediate crude oil and how it will generally leads where consumer prices are going as crude oil prices rise because energy is such a big component not by itself and just in the CPI but through everything else that has a factor there and is Energy prices cool off on a year over year rate change suggests that inflation is indeed coming down and that is something the FED doesn't think is going to happen but if it happens with a lag well that tells us that perhaps September we still get a rate hike before as Jeff predicts the FED has a massive turn of heart and starts cutting rates in a big way by the end of the year