저자: StevenVanMetre · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 2022년 하반기에 경기침체가 심화될 것이라고 경고하며, 소비 둔화와 재고 증가로 인한 디플레이션성 침체를 예상한다. [버리의 백악관 비판] 백악관이 경기침체 정의를 바꾸려 한다고 비판하며, 2분기 GDP -0.9% 두 분기 연속 감소에도 침체를 부인하는 것을 문제 삼았다. [실질소득과 인플레이션] 인플레이션 조정 가처분소득이 마이너스로, 소비자는 신용카드로 생활비를 메우고 있다. 임금이 물가를 따라가지 못하는 것이 성장 둔화의 핵심 원인이다. [소비 둔화 전망] 저축 감소와 신용 확대로 소비자 저축이 연말쯤 거의 소진될 수 있으며, 이후 소비 급감이 예상된다. [재고 및 주문 지표] 필라델피아 연은 신규주문이 급락하는 가운데 소매 재고는 오히려 증가하는 추세다. 신규주문 감소는 소매판매 둔화로 이어진다. [공급망 병목] 북미 항만의 컨테이너선 대기 척수가 다시 사상 최고 수준(약 153척)에 근접했다. 이로 인해 재고가 창고에 쌓이고 할인과 물가 하락으로 이어질 것으로 본다. [노동시장] 미숙련·준숙련 인력 부족이 장기 인플레이션을 자극할 것이라는 버리의 견해를 진행자는 반박한다. 실업수당 청구 증가 시 노동 이탈로 소비가 줄고 물가가 낮아지는 구조를 제시한다. [주식시장] 신규주문 붕괴로 주가가 추가 하락할 수 있으며, 투자자들은 여전히 낙관적이라고 평가한다. [전문가 인용] 스트래티지스트 Jeff Snyder는 노동시장 지표가 방향이 잘못됐다고 보며 2022년 상반기 기술적 침체 이후 하반기에 더 나쁜 상황을 예상한다. [리스크 및 조건] 전망은 재고 누적과 소비 감소가 현실화된다는 가정에 기반한다. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 버리와 Snyder 모두 연말 이후 상황이 더 악화될 것으로 본다고 정리한다. [종목 언급] 개별 종목 언급은 확인되지 않았으며 거시 지표 중심이다.
다듬은 글
michael bury slams the white house as he predicts an even deeper crash is coming i'm your y who bet big and won on the housing crisis took on the white house this week as he says things by the end of the year are going to get much worse let's head over to insider we pick today's story up as big short investor michael berry slams the white house for denying the recession is looming and sounds the alarm on inflation credit card debt and labor shortages michael bury the fund manager of the big short fame accused the bidet administration of moving the goal post on what constitutes a recession and denying the u.s economy as days away from officially being one the white house would like you to redefine the recession as one in which consumers are not borrowing on credit cards he says to pay for inflation and neither is a labor force inadequate for the size of the economy gdp was out on thursday and he says not that there's anything wrong with that and sure enough what did we find out the gdp fell 0.9 percent in the second quarter for the second straight decline and a strong recession signal now i don't know about the strong signal here it is just two quarters it is fairly mild in terms of the big picture it indicates a slowdown at this point it doesn't mean recession is coming it may not but what we are seeing is other indicators are by far suggesting the probabilities of recession are rising but when we look at the data here is it consistent where we see periods of high inflation leading to a slow down the economy well there are and let's take a look at this chart of against the gross domestic product also on a year-over-year rate of change and you'll note where i highlighted yellow periods of rising inflation you see the red heading down slowing growth rising inflation slowing growth rising inflation growth is slowing again rising inflation followed by slowing growth and what is the story here it's not that higher consumer prices are the issue because that seems to be the issue and it doesn't matter prices go up what matters and why we see growth slow is because wages don't keep up with inflation that's the real issue prices could be a lot higher as long as wages are too it's no big deal but what we see every time at least in modern history is wages aren't keeping pace the white house went on to brush off recession fears in its post it pointed to real income real meaning inflation adjusted income growing despite high inflation which we will challenge here momentarily and thanks to a historically strong labor market and ample household savings burry's tweet indicates he took particular issue with that argument and for good reason because when we look at real or again inflation-adjusted disposable personal income this is what's left after everything is spent is negative meaning consumers actually don't have as much money they're not keeping up with inflation and by a long shot they're falling behind and it makes perfect sense because as brewery indicated in the beginning of this article is that people are using their credit cards and it makes perfect sense because the initial way consumers deal with inflation is by charging in the hopes that their wages are going to rise up when they don't and they eventually get these big credit card bills they cut their spending has it happened yet but probably coming really soon let's continue on because berry goes on to say that his views appear to be that americans are racking up credit card debt to cover rising living costs which we know they are and unemployment is low because the economy has outgrown the national workforce his tweet also suggests he expects gdp data on thursday to confirm the economy is in a recession and technically we are and he sees the white house blog post as an attempt to deflect the impending wave of criticism the investor and financial historian has previously warned that consumers are saving less borrowing more and on track to virtually exhaust their savings by christmas as they contend with higher food fuel and housing costs and let's tackle one of those issues there in particular is a slowdown in consumer spending because a lot of those issues are actually pretty relevant we're seeing consumers save less because they have less they're running behind on inflation and so they charge more and they draw down their savings that makes perfect sense but what about the economy well let's continue on because he anticipates the resulting slump in consumer spending coupled with retailers slashing prices to get rid of excess inventory will reduce inflation and sac sap economic growth later this year we've already seen companies draw bringing their prices down we heard that from of course walmart here recently and now let's take a look at current new orders from the philly fed against advanced retail sales and what you see is that as new orders trend down what you'll notice on a year over year rate change you see retail sales slow and as new orders rise well that means sales are usually rising and of course as new orders fall sales fall so what it tells us is that as new orders go down and this makes a lot of sense because if you're a business and you're ordering new supply and new stock new inventory what does this suggest that you have either a shortage of inventory or the demand is so strong for your inventory that you need to get more and of course what happens when and they cut their inventory is simply or cut their new orders it's because inventory is building up or demand is falling away and we see that here as new orders fall what does that mean for retail sales that's right they're headed down and how about inventories well you tend to see the same thing as new orders slow now we'll have retailer inventories up on a year over year rate change in red and why would a retailer slow its inventory why would it let its inventory fall well simple it's going to stop ordering as much stuff and let inventory start drawing down and that makes perfect sense until you see what's happening now and of course it changes the big picture because notably the trend is pretty consistent as new orders fall there's a lag in inventories going down it makes perfect sense but now look new orders are crashing at one of the fastest rates in history and look at where inventory levels are headed they're headed higher as you're about to see they're going even higher than that now if you're concerned that bury is going to be right in the second quarter is going to lead to a disastrous for the economy and even the stock market going down further we shouldn't be there's one strategy that hedges deflationary recessions that's poor fall shield you're about to see this inventory story it's going to be a big part of the recession as we see later this year here we go again record container ship traffic jam as backlog continues to build this headline from zero hedge if you only look at los angeles and long beach the largest container import gateway in america you think shipping congestion is drastically reduced the number of ships waiting there has fallen to 26 from a high of 109 in january but in fact north american poor congestion has just re-entered record territory the offshore traffic jam is once again as bad as it's ever been in january and february when north american congestion previously peaked there were just under 150 container vessels waiting out the coastlines two thirds were in the los angeles long beach queue and as of thursday morning there were 153 the majority off east and gulf coast ports whereas earlier the west coast pilot was centralized highly publicized and relatively easy to track today's ship queue is more widely dispersed and attracting less attention and what that means is we're going to see inventories building up so all these container ships are coming off low coming out of asia predominantly lots of goods needing to be unloaded and are going into warehouses on the shelves at a time when we don't need that and what happens then when of course retailers and wholesalers can't move inventory that means the discounting comes prices go down and inflation goes with it murray goes on to say the anticipated resulting slump in consumer spending coupled with retailers slashing prices which would make a lot of sense to get rid of the excess inventory that's only going to get bigger it will reduce inflation and sap economic growth later this year moreover brewery have predicted lingering shortages of unskilled and semi-skilled workers which he expects to contribute to higher long-term inflation now the last one well we're going to challenge that a little bit because i think we're going to see people come back to the workforce and what we're going to look at is this chart of the four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims in blue set on a log scale against the consumer price index on the year-over-year rate of change and in the past you'll notice the two were fairly in sync but that started to change and now let me invert the consumer price index because what i want you to see is that claims go up well then inflation then falls again shown inverted here so as more people leave the workforce because they lose their jobs inflation goes down as you see showing and again inverted here and why is that happening well it happens because unemployment benefits are less than what people make when they have less money to spend of course that means they're going to consume less and prices have to come down the scion boss is also known for inadvertently contributing to the memory stock frenzy by investing in game stock taking short positions against elon musk tesla and kathy wood's flagship arc fund last year and tweeting bleak warnings that rampant speculation skyrocketing asset prices are inevitably followed by painful market crashes and he is right because when we look again at new orders from the philly fed and this is again a predictor of where things are going and we overlay the wilshire 5000 price index on the year-over-year rate of change we see the stock prices are heading down and while investors remain bullish right now if all this inventory that we're seeing off the coast of the east coast is coming to stores into wholesalers and warehouses that means new orders are going to collapse even more and take stock prices down even further and of course when we overlay four week moving average of initial claims the picture starts to be a little clearer because now we're going to invert new orders and as you see new orders going down again showing up here because they're inverted initial claims go higher it simply means that as stores need fewer workers as warehouses need fewer workers because inventory isn't moving well they get laid off demand goes down and the cycle just starts to snowball from there and as we look to our chief strategist jeff snyder he opines on of course the unemployment data from last week that came out yesterday and he says for another couple weeks including the large upward revision of the previous week the pattern for the labor market is the wrong one this direction as well as the timing for it of late march is consistent with the initial treasury curve inversion and other data sources all pointing to a potential real economy inflection it was likely that inflection he says which produced the first half of the year's technical recession if only as a warm-up for what still lays beyond 2022's second half is jeff i and michael brewery are all believing that something is going to get much worse later this year now if you want to read more about jeff's research mine and tracy shoe charts are energy and materials expert there's a link to markets insider pro in the description below it's currently free sign up next report out on monday
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