저자: StevenVanMetre · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 미국이 이미 경기침체에 들어섰고 주식이 폭락할 것이라 주장하며, 진행자는 이를 지표로 뒷받침한다. 캐시 우드 주장: 미국은 재고 주도의 경기침체 상태이며 광고주들이 크게 지출을 줄이고 있다고 진단. 연준은 고용·물가 같은 후행지표에 치중해 침체를 인정하지 않을 것이라 비판. 실업수당 청구건수는 저점 대비 50% 증가. 금 가격은 2020년 고점, 구리 가격은 크게 하락. 실업수당 분석: 4주 이동평균 신규 실업수당 청구는 나스닥/윌셔5000 하락에 선행. 최근 신규 청구 26만 건(8개월 고점), 연속 청구 147만 2천 건으로 악화 추세. 비농업 고용은 후행적이며 추세가 중요하다고 진단. 물가·디플레이션: 우드는 인플레이션이 크게 낮아지고 디플레이션이 올 수 있다고 봄. 진행자는 동의하지만 디플레이션 국면에서는 기술주가 대체로 하락한다고 과거 사례(닷컴, 금융위기)를 들어 설명. 채권 포트폴리오 헤지가 유리하다고 언급. 우드의 ARK 플래그십 펀드: 2022년 5월 12일경 일중 저점 형성 가능성, 나스닥100·S&P500보다 약 한 달 먼저 저점을 찍었다고 주장하며 초기 반전 신호라고 봄. 펀드는 2021년 2월 고점 대비 약 70% 하락. 진행자는 성장주가 베어마켓 말기 주도주가 된다는 우드 견해에는 동의하지 않음. 골드만삭스·번스타인: 번스타인 전략가는 실적 하향 사이클이 이제 시작됐고, 거시 모멘텀의 긍정적 전환 없이 일시적 위험자산 선호는 하락 재개 위험을 높인다고 평가. 주식형 펀드 자금 유출, 헤지펀드 숏 포지션 존재로 랠리 가능성은 있으나 개인투자자 항복 전까지는 바닥이 아니라고 봄. 연준 금리 인하 개시 시 기술주·광범위 시장 하락 패턴 제시. 경기 지표: ISM 비제조업 PMI는 상승했으나 S&P 글로벌 서비스 PMI는 47.3으로 위축, 미국 수입은 정체 조짐. 진행자는 경기 둔화 신호로 해석. 원유: OPEC+ 회의 결과 일일 10만 배럴 증산에 그쳤고, 6월 초과 감산 준수율 253%. 사우디·UAE 여유 생산능력은 약 250만 배럴/일. 실물시장은 타이트하며 사우디 아라비안 라이트 가격 상향.
다듬은 글
kathy woods says the recession is here and the stocks will crash i'm your host steve and meter and thanks for joining me today the famed tech manager says the feds got it all wrong and that things are about to get much worse let's pick today's story up with this headline that arc invest chief kathy wood thinks the u.s is in recession but says her fund's growth strategy has already bought him well i'm not so sure about that but we'll take a look at that in a little bit arc invest kathy wood is certain that the u.s economy has already entered recession according to an interview with cnbc on friday what we do see in these earnings results is that we are in a recession we think this is an inventory-led recession and i think that's what's coming through loud and clear we're seeing advertisers cut back dramatically she says all cases that we've made on this show let's continue on because wood's view of the current status u.s economy differs from fed chairman jerome powell's view who said last month that he isn't seeing signs of the economy has entered a recession but powell and the fed are mostly focused on lagging indicator wood said like employment market and inflationary readings like the cbi that means the fed won't likely acknowledge economies in a recession until it's already happened well in the fed's defense they don't call recessions as we heard powell say at his last press conference that's up to someone else so yes she's right the fed will deny it all the way up until they have no other choice wooden set focuses on leading economic indicators to backup review that the economy is set to weaken further and inflationary pressures are set to end she says if you look at the initial unemployment insurance claims they're up 50 percent from the low so i do believe we're going to see some significant disappointment in the employment numbers moving ahead referring to friday's non-farm payroll report additionally gold prices peaked in 2020 which is important gauge of inflation and copper prices have moved considerably lower which is a closely watched gauge of economic activity well let's take a look at these unemployment claims because they do have a lot of meaning in fact the first one we need to understand is how not tight they are compared to the stock market then we see stocks go down well it's layoffs they start to they start well let's take a look at here we have the four week moving average of initial claims in blue against the wilshire 5000 the total u.s stock market in red and you can see what starts to look like you know in mere relationship of each other but let's flip the red line the wilshire 5000 over and what you can see is stock market starts to head lower well that builds momentum behind unemployment claims now the question you might ask is well if the stock market turns around here does that mean all of a sudden everything's okay in the employment world well not immediately i mean think about it if you've ever lost your job do you get a call maybe a month or two later and the boss says hey you know what the market's back up i think the economy is okay we'd like to bring you right back and usually that doesn't happen once employers make this decision they stick with it for a while because one of the key problems here now is we can see momentum building behind this initial claims because now unlike the pandemic when people go on unemployment they have less money to spend and you can see it's going to start to snowball let's take a look at today's data on that because initial jobless claims hit an eight-month high as continuing claims jump ahead of the payroll print tomorrow and here we can see that initial claims rose six thousand to two hundred sixty thousand state claims up forty eight thousand to one point four one six with total claims at one point four seven two million and so those numbers are trending higher bad news for the economy and bad news potentially for the non-farm payroll report coming up on friday tomorrow from the recording of this show and here we have the non-farm payroll report in red overlaid against the four-week average of initial claims and what makes this a little easier to see is let's invert the non-farm pay report and move it up a little bit and what you can see is initial claims do indeed lead the non-farm payroll report which we've heard from many government agencies we've heard from the fed that say hey the economy is in good shape because look at all these jobs that are created and it's really not the number of jobs that matter right now it matters is the direction if we're seeing fewer and fewer jobs created that's what really matters we don't have to see a negative non-farm payroll print in fact we can be in recession and still create jobs it's the trend that matters and the trend is headed lower and we'll find out more tomorrow let's continue on because all these signals kathy says that inflation is going to come down it's going to come down significantly in case we've made on this show many times and we're probably going to see some deflation i definitely agree with that and the environment could set our invest flagship fund up for a decent recovery going forward she says something that i do not agree with but typically grow stocks will outperform as we move toward the end of a bear market and the end of a recession because they are the new leadership it looks like we bought them on an inter day basis based on our flagship strategy may 12th and we're going to challenge this momentarily but let's see what else she has to say she says the bottom in ark's flagship fund came in about one month before the nasdaq 100 s p 500 put in their lows so far for this year she said that's an early signal that we might be turning the corner here well she should hope because he's down 70 percent from the february 20 41 high but is deflation indeed good for well not so much because here we have the nasdaq 100 shown in blue against the consumer price index on a year rate of change and there's a suggestion that we see disinflation or even outright deflation which we only have one point that that happened recently and that was a great financial crisis but you'll note that as the economy slows down and disinflation deflation takes hold that means tech stocks usually go down in fact there is a brief recovery period we'll note one here going to the dot-com bubble and one going to the great financial crisis where you see them by a bear market rally and then they go down the only time we didn't really see that is going into the pandemic we saw of course stocks rallying there but then again people consumers were given money and and that helped too because they turned around and bought stocks but while bottle deflation isn't good and probably won't be good for her fun there's one strategy that it will be good for and that's portfolio i'll put a link up here in the corner and description below because it hedges with bonds and those go up during deflation let's continue on because perhaps the economy as goldman here says may be getting worse as goldman bernstein's strategist say stock rally well set to fade and stocks risk a fresh self on poor macro data and bernstein says still early in the earnings downgrade cycle perhaps telling kathy she's wrong without clear signs of a positive shift in the macro momentum temporary re-risking could actually increase risk of another leg lower in the market rather than signal the end of the bear market according to goldman strategists bernstein strategists say in a note on thursday that ernie's downgrade cycle is just starting along with outflows from stock funds and while investors have stopped buying equities in the second quarter funds haven't seen a reversal of the huge inflows of 200 billion seen in the first quarter they said and there's a couple key points we can indeed see a rally in stocks here because there's a lot of momentum computer traded models and they're still short and of course if momentum gets pushed a little higher they will flip into long and start buying you also have a lot of hedge funds that are upside down on the year and that means they're going to double down on their bets but it's not until you see retail investors capitulate and turn into sellers that you know you're closer to a bottom and from the fed's perspective well if we now overlay the federal funds rate in blue against the nasdaq 100 in red what we know is you can see a rally when the fed gets near a pause but once the fed starts cutting it's all over tech stocks and the broad market heading down now let's head over to our chief strategist jeff snyder who comments on the recent data suggesting that perhaps the economy is indeed slowing despite the fact that the non-manufacturing pmi from the ism has actually beat expectations and went up he says in his daily the small july rebound for the headline even the larger positive bounces in business activity and new orders have to be considered as no more than a statistical fluctuation common in the high frequency data unless other data begins to pick up and do so convincingly for more than a month at a time the small increase in the ism's non-manufacturing has to be treated as a statistical deviation along with the same downward trend especially given the difference between this version of services and the s p global's index for the same time now what is he referring to by the s p global well check this out from yesterday's data he we note that the services pmi and the s p global composite pmi both were contraction under 50 and 47.7 for the global composite and 47.3 for services kind of bucking the trend for the ism that went up which is what jeff's trying to say another indication the economy is slowing we got the import data that slows down as well dropping from 341 billion to 340 as it looks to plateau and in an economy a consumption-based economy you need to see imports and exports growing now exports went up a little bit but imports to the biggest consuming country starting to plateau not necessarily a good sign now let's try to head over to tracy shoe charts daily published today in markets insider pro if you're not signed up it's still free link in description below she notes that the opec plus meeting ended yesterday with a paltry hundred thousand barrel increase in production that was prorated between all members she said this is literally nothing especially in the light of the fact that the june total over compliance was at 253 percent this means that they under produced quotas by 253 percent of you can imagine in addition there are only two countries that actually have spare capacity that's saudi arabia in the uae estimated spare capacity between the two is two and a half million barrels a day and some suggest that is even high the physical markets remain tight with saudi arabia raising prices of arid light to record 9.80 over local benchmark prices you wanna hear more what jeff has to say and tracy and my report we'll be sure to sign up for marcus insider pro again free for a limited time i'm steve van meter thanks for being fans thanks for watching bye now
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