저자: StevenVanMetre · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 레이 달리오의 유럽 증시 약세 베팅을 지지하며, 금리·인플레이션 하락과 주식 하락을 예상한다. 달리오 브리지워터의 유럽 증시 공매도: 브리지워터가 유로스톡스 관련 28개 기업에 대한 공매도 규모를 105억 달러로 두 배 늘렸다는 보도를 소개했다. 독일의 높은 가스 가격 경고 등 유럽 경기 둔화를 배경으로 든다. 수익률 곡선 역전 분석: 10년물에서 2년물 금리를 뺀 수익률 곡선이 역전되면 과거 금융위기·닷컴버블·팬데믹 전 주식 하락과 금리 하락이 뒤따랐다고 설명한다. 현재도 역전 상태이므로 18개월 내 양적긴축 종료와 주식 하락 가능성을 말한다. 인플레이션과 금리 전망: 소비자물가 지수가 과거 역전 이후 하락했던 사례를 들어, 현재 인플레이션(약 8%)도 달리오 예상보다 더 크게 낮아질 것으로 보며 금리도 하락할 것이라고 주장한다. 소비와 소득: 6월 소비지출은 1.1% 증가했으나 소득은 0.6% 증가에 그쳤고, 부족분은 신용카드 등 차입으로 메워진다고 지적한다. 실질 가처분소득은 마이너스이며 개인저축률은 낮아지는 추세다. 저축률이 낮을 때 주가가 하락하는 경향이 있다고 본다. 심리지표: 미시간대 소비자심리지수가 바닥권에 머물고 있으며, 과거 심리 바닥 이후 주가가 바닥을 형성했다는 점을 근거로 하방 리스크를 강조한다. 기대인플레이션도 하락 전환했고 휘발유 가격과 연동된다고 설명한다. 결론적 전망: 주식시장은 하락할 가능성이 크고 달리오가 맞을 것이며, 다른 투자자들은 틀릴 것이라고 주장한다. 또한 채권 기반 포트폴리오 헤지 전략을 소개하며 추가 교육 채널을 홍보한다.
다듬은 글
ray dalio went all in on europe's collapse but is he winning while ray dalio is betting big on the collapse of the european stock market u.s investors are betting big on a bear market rally who's going to be right well let's over to bloomberg where he picked today's story up as bridgewater doubles the short wagers in europe to 10 and a half billion as as a famed hedge fund manager has short positions against 28 firms ramping those bets up here recently all the companies at bridgewater is shorting are part of the euro stock safety index the move comes as the euro area economic expansion is slowing along with the global economy as it heads sharply amid surging prices and germany's warning that high gas prices could trigger a collapse in the energy market which is pretty smart actual warning drawn in parallel to the role of lehman brothers and triggering the financial crisis short sellers like dalio try to profit from declining stock prices by selling borrowed shares and buying them back when they fell they are mounting their bets a time of rising interest rates and inflation that are increasing the chances of recession it's not clear whether those bets are aimed at pure profit or pr part of a broader hedging strategy the question is is he going to be right in the end well i think he is but in the short term it looks like some pains coming from bridgewater because according to the data that we have that he was building those short positions and increasing them down here near the lows of the euro stock 50 and now as global investors not just americans are getting bullish that the worst is behind us well for short sellers it doesn't look good but is the party over for bridgewater well probably not as the billionaire ray dalio warns that u.s can't keep spending and bring down inflation he says the money is going to get a lot tighter while assessing the fed's inflation response and he notes that during a recent interview on friday that he provided insight on the u.s economy at mid record inflation rates predicting the federal reserve's quantitative tightening will run its course in about 18 months and if actually that would be good news because the longer the fed does quantitative tightening the more likely it's going to be to pull liquidity out of the markets and put downward pressure on the stock market that much of what we're seeing in the stock market today in terms of how much has been down this year is likely due to the fed draining liquidity and the fed's continuing that with a big increase set for september the question though is is mr dalio or as may i call him ray is he right well let's take a look because what we're seeing right now is the yield curve as we're going to see here in red and that is when you take 10-year yields and you subtract two-year yields and when it's inverted or below this hastily drawn yellow line that i have on your screen it means that 10-year yields are less than two-year yields which is abnormal in the bond market it shouldn't happen well i want to note going back before the great financial crisis what did we see a yield curve inversion here and what happened shortly thereafter is quantitative easing one two and three we see another inversion just before the pandemic what did we get more qe we have another inversion now kind of indicating that perhaps in less than 18 months well mr dalio may get his wish and the end of qt will be here he goes on to say in that interview that you have an eight percent inflation rate and look what people get we're talking now about a three percent interest rate and people think that's good right well might be better than you think so you're going to lose money and lose buying power you think he says he thinks inflation will come down a bit but it's going to be very high and money is going to get a lot tighter so you're going to have stagflation well if you have tight money that means inflation is going to come down but here's the proof the nominal inflation coming down is coming down a lot more he thinks making perhaps that three year interest rate or three percent interest rate look pretty good now first let's overlay 're going to keep that same yield curve chart and i note i've got that same hastily drawn yellow line showing where the yield curve inverse and i want i've circled here points where has inverted or has inverted several times and note look what happens consumer prices come came crashing down in the early 80s and it inverted again in the late 80s and what happens sometime thereafter ah interest the consumer price index came crashing down and we have an inversion just before the dot-com bubble and what happens the course inflation came down we have another version before the great financial crisis and we see the cbi continue to press higher then it came crashing down another inversion before the pandemic inflation came down we have another version now suggesting that in fact inflation is coming down but perhaps a lot more than ray thinks of course for interest rates that's good news because where inflation goes interest rates follow telling us that rates are indeed headed lower and we can see that here because now let's take a look at the stock market and trying to figure out is ray going to be right well if we look at or of course the bigger question is who is right is ray right or are u.s investors or all these global investors that are buying this dip going to be right well the yield curve says not so fast check this out here again we have the yield curve and now without that yellow line drawn in i've just circled the inversions and i want to know that where we see these inversions happening look what happens at equity prices as i've overlaid the wilshere 5000 price index or the total u.s market it goes down and here you see an inversion followed by lower stock prices inversion lower stock prices inversion and what do we kind of expect now to happen is stock prices go down and interest rates to go down as well if you're concerned at what that means for your portfolio well you shouldn't be because there is a strategy out there that hedges a market downside risk and does it with bonds and that's portfolio and while you're down there in description if you want to further your education on what this yield curve thing means because policymakers tell us it's meaningless but well there are other people like my partner and chief strategist jeff snyder who had a lot to say about it i wouldn't visited him on his show with emil kalinowski to talk about that very subject i'll put a link to that show below if you want to take your education to the next level well be sure to tune into their channel as we head over now to the wall street journal who knows the consumer spending grew at a much faster rate in june as it rose 1.1 percent as inflation accelerated but the bad news is incomes didn't keep pace with it as we see personal income rose by 0.6 last month the same as the month before and what that tells us and this is not unusual for americans is that spending is outpacing incomes so where is all that other money coming from well it can come from savings or more importantly it comes from credit cards as michael bury warned in our show yesterday that overuse of credit is going to lead and participate part of the next crash that's coming the wall street journal goes on to say that personal consumption expenditures the fed's preferred gauge of inflation rose 6.8 in june from the year before up from the 6.3 increase in the 12 months through may the core which strips out the volatile food and energy components rose by 4.8 percent in june up slightly from 4.7 percent in may on a monthly basis core prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6 in june from a month earlier a sharp pickup from the 0.3 increase the month before but what we're noticing here on this chart that compares the pce in red against the core again stripping out food and energy in blue we can note that the core tends to lead where the broad inflation goes and we could be seeing a peak here in the core coming in and a downward trend beginning of course trends are going to take more than a couple months to actually see but this could be a leading indicator now of where inflation is headed but of course we already know that because the yield curve tells us that inflation is coming down rates are coming down and so too are stock prices but dalio mentions that we can't keep inflation down unless governments stop giving out money well ray maybe that's not the case because governments aren't giving out enough money here we see the real disposable personal income data just came out thursday is negative so it's showing that on an inflation-adjusted basis even after government transfers people have less money so governments aren't giving people enough money to keep prices persistently high and so perhaps more evident that raise going to be right and the stock market's going to go down and that evidence is in the personal savings rate which continues to sink now if you're wondering what is this personal savings rate according to the government it may be generally be viewed as a portion of personal income that is used to provide funds to capital markets or to invest in real assets such as residents as or simply stated the money you have left over every month to actually invest doesn't mean you do but you could and it's not worth noting the periods in blue where you see the personal savings rate and i've highlighted in yellow are fairly low levels are trending down from higher levels when we overlay the wilshire 5000 again you can see that as less money is available for investing that the market tends to come down following those periods and that kind of supports perhaps it raised you that the european market's headed down and the u.s investors may be totally wrong and another thing that is driving the equity market lower is broad sentiment we had the university of michigan consumer sentiment survey it was virtually unchanged from the month before and we've talked about this in the past that sentiment is actually key because it tells us where asset prices are going and it also tells us where interest rates are going because they also do a survey for that but let's take a look at this chart because we've got the university of michigan consumer sentiment survey in blue and i want to note that it's not until sentiment bottoms and we've got the wilshire 5000 now in red where sentiment bottoms you see a bottom of stock prices so here you can see following the dot-com bubble bursting sentiment bottoming stock prices here you see the great financial crisis sentiment bottoming stock prices here you can see the pandemics sentiment and stock prices here you see sentiment at well extremely low periods and that's what investors are looking at they're saying it can't get worse it may not get worse in fact it may get a little bit better but as long as it stays low and in that general area it's going to put downward pressure on the equity markets and that means the risk to the equity markets is the downside certainly not to the upside but let's take a look at these inflation expectations because we're seeing them start to slow down and roll over and while that is not the best gauge for where interest rates go we've seen in the past periods where and i've highlighted in blue where sentiment is rolling over on inflation expectations when we overlay 30-year treasury yields we see that that tends to mark periods where rates have also peaked or have recently peaked and we see that throughout history there's not a ton of data points here to suggest that but there are more than enough there's only a few places here where we see actually inflation expectations rising and yields continue to rise but then they head lower suggesting that perhaps the peak and interest rates may be already in now you don't have to be a phd economist to actually understand inflation expectations if you just drive a gas powered car you probably already get it and here's why because when we take inflation expectations and we overlay gas prices here you see u.s regular all formulations gas price in red well where gas prices go inflation expectations follow telling us what we already know now is that the equity market's likely to come down ray is going to be right about that most other investors are going to be wrong inflation's coming down and rates are coming down with it and that is how we know we're headed into another crisis i'm your steve and
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