저자: StevenVanMetre · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 시장에 바보 같은 낙관(버블 심리)이 다시 돌아왔고 주가 급락이 임박했다고 경고한다. 버리의 트윗 해석: 1929·1968·2000·2008 이후 사라졌던 'silliness(바보 같은 낙관)'가 다시 나타났고 아직 끝나지 않았다고 주장. 과거 닷컴·부동산 버블기처럼 주식 파티, 부동산 플리핑 얘기가 다시 유행한다는 맥락. 주가 전망: 버리는 몇 달째 주가 폭락을 예고했으나 S&P500은 6월 이후 약 10% 반등, 나스닥100은 15% 이상 상승. 영상은 10년물-2년물 금리 역전(장단기 금리차 역전)을 근거로 과거 금융위기·팬데믹 전에 시장 고점이 있었다며 버리 주장이 맞을 가능성을 제시. 신용 지표: 신용카드·개인대출 이용 급증, 6월 소비자신용 증가폭은 역대 두 번째로 큼(약 400억 달러). 소비자신용 증가 → 물가 상승(수요 선반영) 논리를 차트로 설명하며 연준 긴축 대응을 언급. 카드금리 15~17%로 신용 버블 붕괴 가능성 언급, 이후 금리 하락·정책 반전 시 채권 헤지 전략(포트폴리오 쉴드)이 유리하다고 주장. 연준: 샌프란시스코 메리 데일리, 클리블랜드 메스터, 시카고 찰스 에반스 등이 인플레 억제가 거의 끝나지 않았다고 언급. 영상 진행자는 9월 금리 인상이 마지막일 수 있다고 봄. 채권시장은 연준이 생각보다 빨리 방향을 바꿀 것을 반영한다는 해석. 서머스의 1970년대식 실수 경고도 인용. 고용: 소비자신용 증가가 고용 증가로 이어지며, 신용 둔화 시 일자리 증가도 둔화·감소로 이어진다는 논리로 연준 긴축이 고용을 식힐 수 있다고 설명. 결론: 버블 심리는 아직 끝나지 않았으며, 시장 고점 신호는 이미 나타났다는 것이 영상의 핵심 메시지. 출연자 개인 종목 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
michael bury says that fools have taken over the market i'm your and short seller michael bury is back in the news this time with another ominous warning for investors let's over to bloomberg where we picked today's story up is michael bury of big short fames his silliness and the markets is back and the investor bet on the housing market ahead of the financial crisis has been predicting another crash now for months and in this tweet he said the silliness is back after 1929 after 1968 after 2000 after 2008 the strain of silliness that transformed bulls into bubbles completely and utterly disappeared but that familiar covenant silliness is not dead yet like 2001 before enron before 9 11 and before worldcom it's not entirely clear what burry who's known for his cryptic tweets is referring to but it is exactly that it is clear what he's talking about let's rewind and go back to that tweet because what is he talking about here well he's saying the silliness is back after 1929 after 1968 after 2000 after 2008 now what is he referring to after the bubble burst and then he goes on to say that transformed bulls into bubbles completely and utterly disappeared now you may not remember this but back during the height of the dot-com bubble people would have stock parties where they get their friends together they talk about stocks you know during the final they're in the real estate boom what were people talking about everything to do with real estate how much money they were making on real estate what they were gonna flip how they're gonna leave their job and get into the real estate market and what happens after these bubbles burst well no one was having stock parties you know in 2003 and no one was talking about flipping real estate in 2010 that's what the silliness went away now let's go back to this tweet again he says but not familiar covenant silliness is not dead yet like 2001 before end run before 9 11 before it will come and what he's always trying to suggest is that people are still bullish in the face of something bad that is coming bery has been forecasting to plunge in stock prices for months which turned out to be president for the time as the s p 500 posted his worst first half of the year since 1970.
he predicted at the end of june that the market was about halfway through its decline since then however the s p index is up nearly 10 through thursday's close and the nasdaq 100 has rallied more than 15 percent of course after the jobs report well was just momentarily down a bit but looking at michael bury's call here how accurate is he going to be well the yield curve tells us that he's going to be right in here we have the tens twos the 10-year yield minus the two-year treasury yield and overlaid against the wilshire 5000 the total u.s stock market so when you can see the yield curve gets below this line here the black line starts to invert what happens is you're looking at a potential peak in the equity market here you can see going to the financial crisis the curve is inverting now there's a little bit more runway for the market before it tips over how about going to the pandemic the curve just briefly inverted signaling shortly thereafter a peak in markets and now we have a peak and the curve is already inverted so what it's telling us is that bury is indeed going to be right but people are really bullish right now and that is a problem because he's looking at they're committing a lot of money that's going to get wiped out but another warning that brewery had and you may remember from a prior show is about the credit markets well that's in the news from this week as the use of credit cards personal loan surges but it's not a red flag an expert says the number of people with credit cards and personal loans hit record highs in the second quarter of 2022 according to tran uni transunion's latest credit industry insights reports but it wasn't transunion alone the government reported that consumer credit surged in june the second largest monthly increase ever as last month we begin to see the first signs of consumer cracking as credit numbers slowed drastically after months of spend heavy consumption amid tumbling real wages one month late in june data released today by the fed showed that consumer credit rebounded dramatically with additional 40 billion piled on well above the expectation of a 27 billion rise that is the second largest monthly spike in consumer credit history now that is actually perhaps a red flag in itself let's take a look and see what perhaps bury was warning before about credit now what we should see is total consumer credit should be rising this is a debt-based economy you need to see debt expanding so you would expect to see that it's the rate of change that causes problems when people start to go out and buy things they don't need with money they don't have and you can look at here now consumer credit red also on a year over year rate change and notice how a rising consumer credit often leaves an increase in consumer prices you see it here and you see it other times again demand for credit leading consumer prices higher as i said i need to go buy something i don't need with money i don't have and that pulls demand forward so what you're seeing in this chart is demand being pulled forward leading to inflation it wouldn't see we wouldn't see this if people had to save up and buy things and didn't purchase on credit but we can go on and note that here we see an increase in consumer credit and surge in consumer prices perhaps a double whammy when you factor the supply chain mess that is also causing this and so what is the fed's response to this increase in consumer credit well of course that means tighter monetary policy because the fed doesn't have a lot of things it can do but one thing it can do is slow credit growth and credit growth is key to money growth because new money comes from new loans so when we overlay now consumer credit with the federal funds rate in red what do we see that as consumer credit increases which we know now leads to an increase in consumer prices the fed with a lag eventually responds and you can see notably increases in consumer credit followed by increases in the funds rate and if we see that fairly consistency now you see a couple points here that it wasn't really a big increase in credit it's just a consistent you know fairly strong number of consumer credit growth caused a fed to tighten policy here we see this again now where does all this go how does this end because there is a point where inflation is too much and wages aren't keeping up again remember inflation's at 9.1 wages are around what 5.2 percent year over year so how does the slowdowns end up happening well it's real simple when people start getting those credit card bills and all those statements and higher interest rates start to kick in minimum payments go up and here we can see what that means and the consumer credit against the total interest rate paid on credit card plans of all accounts and accounts assessed interest and you can see that as of course consumer credit rises interest rates go up people get charged more and that lease will slow down and here we're seeing now the credit card rates are somewhere between 15 and 17 suggesting that perhaps this credit bubble is soon to burst and when it does it's going to drive interest rates back down and inflation like it normally does and there's that policy reversal that we've been talking about with the fed and that means with rates coming down strategies like portfolio shield that hedge with bonds do very well of course when the stock market breaks all those people that have piled into equities we talked about in the bank of america survey are going to see a long ways to go down because this silliness is not over as bloomberg headlines the yolo stock bulls say wake me when the fed tightening starts to bite and even before that the message from a wave of officials was clear central bank is nowhere near being almost done cracking down on inflation according to san francisco's mary dally said cleveland's mestre is looking for persuasive evidence of price pressures or moderating the chicago's charles evans said policy makers were a few reports away from seeing the kind of data that would make them think they're on the right track and while i'll disagree with them i think september is going to be their last hike but let's continue on as the market is basically saying to the fed you're not going to have to go as far as you think you do you might have to start reversing course much sooner than you think you have to and that is a question is is it not sustainable in the face of the fed that appears to be hell-bent on not stopping and the question is what are they referring to as markets they're referring to the bond market so here again we've got the treasury yield curve 10 year minus two years against the federal funds rate and you might notice if i put a mirror on here that something makes sense well let's flip the funds rate over and what this is telling us as we know is an inverted yield curve means that rates are coming down and as of course our own chief strategist jeff snyder's predicted that means something by the end of the year so perhaps the september rain hike is it and then something causes the fed to go from massive hawkiness hawkishness to jam in reverse and go to complete dovish because summers warns the fed is on a 1970 style mistake with cpi set to slow as the former treasury secretary says the jobs report which is all that seems to matter now to policy makers showed overheating but does it really because when we take a look at the consumer price index and overlay the total non-farm payrolls on a percent change in thousands of persons what we notice is that the cbi tends to go down as of course payrolls eventually turn negative what a shock as people lose their job while they spend less money and of course inflation goes down but what's the real story here is perhaps of course the fed is looking at tightening policy but does this really make sense does the fed actually when they tighten policy cause jobs to go away no if we overlay total consumer credit now in red with the total non-farm change in thousands of persons in blue what we see is that as credit growth is zooming up higher and it makes perfect sense if i'm buying things they don't need with money i don't have well that leads to jobs being created because people have to create the things i'm buying and that spurs of course payroll growth but what happens when that reverses and that consumer credit starts to slow down and decrease well notably as it slows down what we see is job growth starts to slow and eventually turn down and that my friends is what the fed is able to do now if you want to know what our chief strategist take on the recent jobs report is and believe me you do i've already got the advanced copy of a special deep dive then you've got to get on the email list it'll come out on it comes out on monday marketsinsiderpro.com also a link in the description but take looking at what we see bree's going to be right the silliness isn't going to last a whole lot longer and next thing you know no one's going to be talking about the markets
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