저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금광주(GDX)는 최근 1년간 소폭 마이너스지만 실질금리 급락과 인플레이션 가속으로 S&P500·나스닥을 1년 내 상회할 것이라 주장. 미 국채 수요 약화(외국 중앙은행·사회보장기금 매도)로 연준이 국채를 monetize해 인플레가 심화되고, 비트코인 거품 붕괴 후 자금이 금으로 이동한다고 봄. 토큰화 금이 비트코인보다 나은 화폐라는 견해.
다듬은 글
Our gold mining company stocks are currently or have been negative. Hmm, but not by much. But I think they will eventually outperform the S &P in a year. I think they will also outperform the Nasdaq in a year. So we'll see how, you know, the rest of the year goes. But not quite half yet. We need to bring up the gold and silver issue, then since you mentioned, GDX is still up, uh, compared to a year ago.
He is too far ahead. He's moving too fast. It's too little, too late. I pay attention to real interest rates. And real interest rates have already fallen as inflation has accelerated and the Fed has simply stayed put. Uh, so I think the markets will start to focus on that. Don't be fooled by the nominal payment , when it's only a fraction of what you're losing in purchasing power due to inflation.
So instead of buying dollars to get this nominal yield, which is actually a negative yield, investors will buy gold to avoid these losses. Otherwise, long-term interest rates will rise sharply. Because if we have to look for private buyers, who will buy? Remember, the big... Who are the big buyers of Treasury bonds?
These were foreign central banks. They are not big buyers. These were the US government trust funds, the Social Security Trust Fund. Oh my God, they are salespeople now. The Social Security Trust Fund sells U.S. Treasury bonds every year. He is not a buyer. He is a salesman. So, foreign central banks are not buying.
Government trust funds are selling. Who will buy? Is the public a big buyer? No, the public is not buying Treasury bonds on a large scale. They do n't have any money anyway. The average American is broke. They don't have money for Treasury bonds. But when the average American decides to invest, they don't want to invest for a 4% return.
They...They're buying SpaceX. You know, they... they... they... they want to go to the moon, right? They don't want to cut the coupon to 4%-5%, even if Treasury bonds were 6% or 7% . They don't want that . Our GDP is much more concentrated in the services sector. Hmm. The largest employers in Japan are still manufacturers.
The largest employers in America are FedEx, UPS, Amazon, and Walmart. They don't produce anything. All they do is sell [ __ ] and transport it. But the things they sell and transport were made in foreign countries. So our GDP is very meager. So I don't think we have any of the room for maneuver that Japan had.
I think they had a lot more ropes to hang themselves with than we did. Uh, but they'll still be hanging on that rope. We will be hanging on a shorter rope because we will not be able to reach 250%. If that's the case, then there's simply no way to get that big. What is the more important tool for fighting inflation?
Money supply, i.e. balance sheet size, or interest rates? Well, actually, both. I think that the money supply and they are kind of connected. But remember that inflation is an expansion of the money supply and credit. So the reason prices rise during inflation is because more money is chasing the supply of goods.
You can buy goods on credit. You don't need money. I can leave without money. I can go to the store and buy all kinds of things, even if I don't have any money. I can use credit. So credit acts like money in the economy. So inflation is an expansion of the money supply and credit. You get more credit, you get more money, you get higher prices.
Donald Trump, when you talk to Donald Trump about housing, he says he wants housing prices to continue to rise even if it's no longer affordable, and first-time homebuyers are now in their 40s because that's how old they need to be to be able to afford to overpay for a house. Donald Trump wants houses to become more expensive because he wants seniors to stay rich or feel rich.
He wants people who bought their homes 20-30 years ago at a much lower price to remain rich on paper. And he doesn't want prices to fall. If you move away, the GDX index is not lagging behind the market. It quietly creates an advantage that most investors in the stock haven't yet taken into account.
Gold mining stocks have turned negative by a small margin over the year, while real interest rates, adjusted for accelerating inflation , have already turned deeply negative. This discrepancy between nominal returns and real purchasing power is precisely the scenario that historically precedes the rapid, measured, and irreversible transformation of stocks into tangible assets.
No, he cannot reduce the balance. He is going to expand the balance. In fact, it expanded last week. If he wants to cut it, why doesn't he cut it now? In fact, he is creating a working group to study the problem. He doesn't really want to solve it because the government currently has a deficit of three to four trillion a year.
If we compare our spending and fundraising, where will the government get this money? The only source will be the Fed. The Fed will have to buy a lot more government debt. And it will create money out of thin air. To do this, it will create inflation. Much of the enthusiasm for gold over the past decade has been stolen by cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin.
And that's what all this activity was about. That's where all the hype, all the Wall Street money, all the political influence was focused on Bitcoin, and it stole a lot of the big news about gold. But I think when the air really comes out of this Bitcoin bubble, and it does, it will just come out faster and more people will recognize it.
Right now, the typical Bitcoin guy looks like a deer in the headlights. He doesn't even realize what's happening. He just froze. But they will all be hit by a Mack truck. And, and, and, this will divert attention away from Bitcoin and return it to gold, where it belongs. And I think to the extent that cryptocurrency is going to be a part of this, it's going to be about tokenized gold.
You know, gold is the future of blockchain, not Bitcoin. Instead of making gold obsolete, blockchain makes gold better. It makes it more interchangeable, more divisible, more portable. He makes gold better money. Bitcoin has never been money. Even if it was on the blockchain, it wasn't money. Gold was money, but now that you tokenize it, it becomes even better money.
It does everything that Bitcoin promises to do but can't . Yes, but even the World Gold Council is involved in this very thing, by the way. I spoke with David Tice at the Consensus Miami conference. It's the height of madness when a company trades with revenue that's over 100 times that size. Well, yes, maybe you could have a small biotech company that does n't really have any revenue, but a large company with a market cap of over a trillion dollars is trading at a price that is over 100 times revenue.
And you know, they only sold about 4% of the company in the IPO, even though it was a record-breaking IPO in terms of the amount of money raised, they barely sold any shares. So we price all shares based on the 4% available for trading. So it really allows for overestimation. But, I think a really good harbinger of what's going to happen with these bubbles that have n't burst yet or maybe have burst but we just can't tell yet is what's happening in cryptocurrency.
Because it was truly the peak of the bubble. This was the craziest part of the bubble – cryptocurrency. Because if you choose not to have inflation, then you will choose a massive recession, a huge drop in stocks, real estate, bonds. Maybe you will choose a financial crisis. You will choose to impose fiscal responsibility on the government.
But he won't choose that. For the same reason no one chose it. So, hmm, but they can't create real wealth out of thin air. Yes, they could, they could play with the numbers, creating inflation, and they could make people feel like they were richer. Oh, look, I have a million dollar house. Okay, you have a million dollar house, but you have a $10,000 box of cereal in the pantry.
Do you know how much this million dollar house is worth? This will divert attention away from Bitcoin and return it to gold, where it belongs. And I think to the extent that cryptocurrency is going to be a part of this, it's going to be about tokenized gold. You know, gold is the future of blockchain, not Bitcoin.
Instead of making gold obsolete, blockchain makes gold better. It is more interchangeable , more divisible, more portable. He makes gold better money. It is melting. Eventually, it has to melt. But yes, I mean the ratings have reached extremes that have never been seen before. I mean, we had over-estimates and they always ended the same way with a significant drop.
Uh, this time the estimates are even more extreme than they were at previous peaks. Bitcoin has never been money. Even if it was on the blockchain, it wasn't money. Gold was money, but now that you tokenize it, it becomes even better money. It does everything that Bitcoin promises to do but can't . Yes, but even the World Gold Council is involved in this very thing, by the way.
I-I spoke with David Tate at the Consensus Miami conference. I blamed him for the 2008 financial crisis years before the crisis happened. Because I knew that his political mistakes were preparing us for this crisis. And it exploded on Bernanke, but Greenspan created the problem. And I knew it, and I described it for years before it exploded.
Um, but then, uh, Powell, maybe not, Powell, uh , Bernanke, then Yellen, then Powell, they all followed Greenspan's instructions to put everything off and keep interest rates artificially low, and, you know, they expanded the balance sheet and put us in this situation that we're in today . I mean the real crash, which was the subject of one of my books, you can see it on my desk, but the real crash is coming.
And it is because of Greenspan and the manual he wrote that every predecessor, and I believe Warsh will be among them, uh, will follow him. He admitted that inflation is a choice. And that's true. We choose inflation. Powell chose inflation. Yellen chose inflation. Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, who just died, he wrote the manual, choosing inflation.
And Warsh will make the same choice for the same reason. What Schiff describes is not a prediction, it is a mechanical result . When the three traditional buyers: U.S. Treasury bonds, foreign central banks, Social Security funds, and the nation's population are either absent or actively selling debt, the Federal Reserve becomes the buyer of last resort, expanding its balance sheet and monetizing debt on a scale that further squeezes real yields.
Every basis point of negative real yield is a basis point of structural tailwind for gold mining companies, whose leverage relative to the spot gold price is approximately 2.3 to 3.1 times greater than the movement of the base metal. Historical data is not unambiguous. In the 12- month periods following comparable negative real rate conditions, from 1973 to 1974, from 2002 to 2003, and from 2009 to 2011, gold mining stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by a margin of 31 to 187 percentage points.
The current structure combines all three of these conditions simultaneously. The Fed is unable to significantly raise rates, the budget deficit is three to four trillion dollars a year, and the Bitcoin market is absorbing speculative capital that will eventually be redirected to monetary metals. Attention does not shift gradually.
She moves instantly. The real risk is not in holding shares of gold mining companies. It is about staying on the sidelines as institutional capital finally realizes what the data has been signaling over the past 14 months.
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