저자: PeterSchiff/BillHolter—출연자소속은자막기준으로확인필요 · 외국인
요약 보기
수입·수출물가가 CPI·PPI보다 정직한 인플레 지표라며 실제 인플레가 공식 수치보다 높다고 주장. 베선트 재무장관의 실버서티피케이트 관련 발언을 비판. 홀터는 달러의 금 대비 가치가 25년간 93% 이상 하락했고 연준·재무부 재무구조가 취약하다며 신용 붕괴 가능성을 강조, 금·은 보유를 권고. 은은 최근 급락했으나 장기 차트는 긍정적이라는 견해.
다듬은 글
Then he told Jesse Waters that if any of these old notes were still around, whether they were silver certificates or gold certificates, he said if you had one of them you could bring it to Fort Knox and you could get your gold, you could get your silver. He actually thought those silver certificates were still good.
This is not true. Meanwhile, the news about inflation is not really good. What caused the fall in producer prices? The same thing that caused consumer prices to fall . This was a 30% drop in oil prices in June. Well, they already grew by 22% in July. So why are we celebrating the great oil price crash that has now largely been overcome?
And there is a high probability that it will be completely overcome. The severity will be a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10 because the credit crunch will be concentrated and likely to begin; if it doesn't start, it doesn't matter. But once it gets to the US, that's it, because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, US Treasury bonds are the basis of virtually the entire financial system; so it's not, uh , it's not my opinion.
This is mathematics. The debt will collapse. We live in a world that is essentially insolvent. Uh , I don't think there 's a big central bank anywhere. But even if you look...No, it's not like that . This has always been good for gold. This will always be good for gold. The only reason gold fell when this war started was because it had risen so much before the war started.
And partly it was due to the expectation of war. So this is a massive scam that creates a great opportunity for people who missed out on the huge growth to buy both metals and mining companies. But I'm focusing on the fact that we went over 50. We had a massive breakthrough. You know, there was huge resistance just below 50 starting in 1980 and then again in 2011.
So the silver chart looks phenomenal and I think in a couple of years you will barely notice the drop from 125 to 55 where we are now. Uh , this is a great opportunity, so that's what , you know, caused bond yields to come down a little bit because the probability of a Fed rate hike has come down a little bit based on those numbers, but yields are still very high compared to where we were.
The 10- year Treasury yield closed at 4.54, and the 30- year at 506. So that's still a high yield compared to where we were, not compared to where we're going and where we've been, you know, since the 90s , 80s, or 70s. It is low compared to this. But recently, since the 2008 financial crisis, this yield is perhaps the highest we have seen, and it will be much higher.
Meanwhile, as for what's new, look at the numbers that came out today on import and export prices. I've mentioned this many times on the podcast. These are much more honest numbers than the CPI or PPI because there is no substitute. There are no hedonic adjustments. Numbers are numbers. And compared to last year, import prices increased by 7.1%.
Export prices increased by 10.2%. Compare that to a 3.5% increase in the CPI compared to last year or a slightly higher , as I just said, producer prices. These numbers are a much better reflection of the price increases that Americans are actually paying. Obviously, if imports grew by 7.1 %, we are buying a lot of imports.
We pay these higher prices. The CPI may not reflect this, but it is history. I want to talk a little bit about what I heard from our Treasury Secretary Scott Besson on Fox News. He was interviewed by Jesse Waters, and he was taking him on a tour, probably of, you know, and on the wall were, um, framed old Federal Reserve notes from before 1968 or before 1933, which had silver and gold certificates on them, where they were legal tender ( domestic U.S.
dollars) that could be exchanged for gold or silver coins on demand. And then he told Jesse Waters that if any of these old notes still existed, silver certificates or gold certificates, he said if you had one, you could bring it to Fort Knox, and you could get your gold, you could get your silver. He actually believed that these silver certificates were still valid.
They do not serve. But if there's anyone in Trump's cabinet who you think knows about this, it 's the Treasury Secretary. I mean, he's the one who actually signs the notes, right? He must know the history of our money, and he thinks he does, because he explains it to Jesse Waters as if he does . However, he is completely wrong.
So, the cost of things we produce ourselves has increased by 10.2% compared to last year. The value of the things that other people produce for us, that we buy and import, has only increased by 7.1%. So this shows me that inflationary pressures in the United States are even stronger than inflationary pressures outside the United States, because the cost of things that we produce here is rising faster than the cost of things that are produced abroad.
But this shows that inflation is a much bigger problem than the government claims. And that's why it's such a big concern, isn't it? That's why the public is so outraged by inflation. That's why it's the number one economic problem. This is because the problem has gotten worse. Donald Trump promised that prices would drop from day one.
And instead of falling, they grew significantly. And that's why this is all they're talking about at these hearings. That's why Congress and the Senate are criticizing the Fed for what you're going to do about inflation. But then again, the reason the government wants to misdefine inflation by claiming that inflation is rising prices, not an expansion of the money supply, is precisely so they can pretend that they are not the cause of it.
So they can try to blame whoever is raising prices and not take responsibility for the inflation they created that led to people having to raise prices. Gold closed the week above $4,000 even after briefly trading below that level, while silver fell 4% to $55.83 and mining stocks fell even more. Peter Schiff wrote: "Markets are misjudging the moment." He points to a 7.1% increase in import prices and a 10.2% increase in export prices year-on-year – measures, he argues, that are cleaner than the CPI or PPI because they carry no substitution or hedonic adjustment as evidence that underlying inflation is hotter than headline figures suggest .
The most poignant story this week was reputational, not technical. Schiff pointed to comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent, who suggested that silver certificates issued before 1968 could still be exchanged for physical medals at Fort Knox, which contradicts historical evidence. This buyout, right, was reinstated by executive order in 1933 and completely closed by 1968.
Overall, Schiff's argument for measuring inflation is methodologically consistent with positions he has held for many years, and the gap in import and export prices is a real, tested indicator worth examining. Bessant's claim, if accurately characterized, is a legitimate question of credibility that viewers can evaluate for themselves, not a verdict on the Fort Knox assets themselves , which is a separate and unresolved claim that is sound.
And I can say this because we know that the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are not in a healthy position. The Treasury is currently paying out $1.5 trillion in interest alone. This is the largest spending category where we are right now . We are in the process of reaching bottom. This took a little longer than I expected.
Um, but I want, I want to tell people that this is true, and we've had a lot of these cases since 2000-2001 , when gold and silver bottomed out. We've had a lot of intuition checks, but this is just another intuition check. And you have to ask yourself, why did I buy gold? Why did I buy silver in the first place?
Do you know why you own gold or silver? Do you own gold or silver because it has gone up , or because you thought it would go up? First, gold and silver do nothing. They are not growing. They don't fall. They are a piece of metal. That's how it should be , the price should be listed now, when the dollar is worth 14,000th ounce of gold.
Uh, 25 years ago gold was 130th. If you look at the price of gold in dollars, it's not shocking that the price went from 300 to 4,000, or, you know, 5,600, or whatever it was at its peak. But it's even more shocking when you look at the dollar, whose price is measured in gold, rising from 130 to 14,000.
This is a complete and utter collapse of purchasing power by 93% compared to real money in 25 years. But it is not perceived that way. This is seen as something like: gold is going up or silver is going up, but that's not the case. We live in a world that is essentially insolvent. Uh , I don't think there's a big central bank that's healthy.
And I can say this because we know that the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve, are not in a healthy position. The Treasury is currently paying out $1.5 trillion in interest alone. This is the largest category of expenses. Uh, if you look at the Federal Reserve, they have a negative stance on stocks at the moment.
Uh, I was looking at it, I think it was three years ago, four years ago, they had 65 billion shares outstanding, and interest rates have gone up since then. And their bond portfolio shrank sharply. The figure is around $300 billion or something like that. So, they have a negative, uh, negative balance.
As for other countries, what do they use? What do central banks of other countries use as their primary reserve? They use dollars issued by an insolvent organization. So you're dealing with a financial system with literally no basis whatsoever. And when former President Roosevelt issued his gold standard in 1933, as you know, the dollar was defined as one, it was 120.67 ounces, about 120th of an ounce of gold, and now it's worth $14,000 in gold equivalent .
Since then, the dollar has fallen by 99.12% in gold equivalent. The severity will be a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10 because the credit crunch will be concentrated and likely to begin; if it doesn't start, it won't matter. But once it reaches the US, that's it, because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, US Treasury bonds are the basis of virtually the entire financial system; so it's not, uh , it's not my opinion.
This is mathematics. The debt will collapse. If you know how it will end, you prepare for that ending. Does it matter how you get there or what it looks like? You are preparing for this end because, as you just said, you know what gold and silver are for, to get you to the other side when credit collapses.
And gold is used to ensure that you have capital when the system starts to reboot. Here you can have great stocks held by a broker who goes bankrupt, and you know what? You will learn that legally these shares were never yours . They were for your benefit, but they belonged to your broker. That's why you get stock certificates.
And that's why I said earlier, if you know the ending, prepare for it now. Prepare for it in advance, because once it comes , you won't be able to move. You won't be able to buy gold. You will not be able to buy silver with fiat money. Bill Holter flips the familiar lens. Instead of asking why gold is expensive, he asks what it says about the dollar.
His arithmetic, a dollar price of about 1 per 300th of an ounce of gold 25 years ago versus 1/4 of zero today, is presented as an erosion of the value of the dollar denominated in gold of over 93%. He extends this to institutional balance sheets , describing the Federal Reserve's own capital position as depreciated given losses on its bond portfolio, and cites recent data showing that gold has overtaken U.S.
Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by foreign central banks . His most stringent claim, that a future credit event would register as a 10 out of 10, was offered as a probabilistic judgment, not a forecast with a time frame. And he clearly stated that the time is unknown. Overall, the dollar-per- ounce gold valuation is an arithmetically sound and legitimate alternative lens on currency depreciation, although it is one of several metrics for measuring purchasing power.
The Fed's balance sheet reflects actual published unrealized losses . The claim about the severity of the credit crunch is Halter's own assessment of the probability and should be understood as such a forecast, not as
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